Originally posted on The Football Fan Spot  |  Last updated 9/21/13
St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1) Trends wise, the Cowboys are in a bad situation this week. St. Louis is road dogs after a road loss, a situation teams are 88-52 ATS since 2008. Teams cover about 65% of the time in this situation historically as well, no matter what year you use to cut off the sample. The Cowboys, meanwhile, struggle as home favorites since the opening of the new Cowboys Stadium in 2009. Excluding Thanksgiving home games, when they usually cover no matter what, they are 8-17 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more since 2009. It doesn’t have to do with the stadium, but considering the key personnel hasn’t changed much since 2009, this is relevant. However, I think this line is way too low. This line at -3.5 suggests the Cowboys are barely better than the Rams, which is not true in my opinion. The Cowboys are still my pick to win the NFC East. They barely lost in Kansas City last week, but there’s no shame in that. They’ve fixed the turnover problems that plag...
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