The Chicago Bears want to extend Jaylon Johnson, here's what his new contract will cost in 2024

Entering his fifth season in the NFL, Jaylon Johnson has established himself as a bonafide alpha corner. Johnson was vocal in 2023 that he wanted a new contract and at one point got the Bears to allow him to seek a trade.

During those negotiations Johnson was able to get a good bearing on what his value would be if he were to hit the open market. This will help him to hold a firm line in any negotiations with the Bears for an extension.

On the other hand, the Bears have the luxury of using the franchise tag on Johnson to prevent him from leveraging the position of an open bidding war for his services. The 2024 franchise tag for cornerbacks is $19,802,000. That price tag will set the floor for Johnson in any long-term negotiation.

In four years Johnson has allowed just 134 catches for 1,750 yards and 13 touchdowns. His career catch rate allowed is just 55.8% and he has a reputation as a solid run defender, although his missed tackle rate is north of 15%.

Looking for players who have had similar stretches to begin their careers, Johnson compares well to many of the corners who have signed top-of-the-market deals in recent years.

Top-of-the-market deals for cornerbacks over recent years

*Marlon Humphrey signed his deal after his third year in the NFL.

Johnson’s catch allowed and yards per coverage rep rates are both a bit behind Denzel Ward’s, as is his interception total. He compares favorably to Jaire Alexander and in most metrics but falls short of Marlon Humphrey in most. The overall message from the above chart though is that Johnson’s stats/metrics can hang with this group of players.

Alexander, Ward and Humphrey make up three of the top five APY’s among cornerbacks currently (it was announced that L’Jarius Sneed will have the franchise tag placed on him putting him in the top five). Here is each player’s APY, the year they signed their current deal and the percentage of salary cap that APY represented in the year signed.

APY For Top-Of-The-Market CB Deals

Based on these contracts Johnson’s team will look to secure a contract that represents 9.5 - 10% of this year’s $255.4 million salary cap on an average per year basis. That range would be $24.25 - $25.5 million per year. With the likely franchise tag ($19.802 million) now representing a floor and the 10% of this year’s cap ($25.5 million) representing a ceiling there is a $5.7 million spread of where the deal should fall.

The Bears are going to counter that Johnson is missing a key element that all three of the others had on their resumes.That element is a first-round draft pedigree. Ward was taken 4th overall in 2018. Alexander was 18th overall in the same year, while Humphrey went 16th overall the year prior. Johnson was selected 50th overall (second-round) in 2020.

While it may not make sense, draft pedigree still has an impact on second contracts. The highest paid non-first round cornerback currently is Trevon Diggs of the Cowboys who signed a five-year, $97 million contract last year. His $19.4 million APY represented 8.45% of the 2023 salary cap.

If Johnson were to agree to a similar percentage of cap as Diggs this year, his APY would be right around $21.5 million. While it would be a tier down from the first three players he was compared to, it would still allow him to reset the cornerback market from an APY perspective.

Johnson will fight for a higher % of cap and I could see his final APY hitting $22 - $22.5 million per year. Diggs signed up for five years with the Cowboys, but seeing how quickly the salary cap is rising on a yearly basis players will be less likely to agree to longer-term deals in hopes of getting a second-crack at free agency before they turn 30.

Johnson will be 25 when the new season begins. A four year deal would allow him to re-enter free agency prior to his age-29 season. Most of the top-end deals have included full guarantees of 35 - 45% of the total contract. Using the midpoint of that range would get a figure of $35 - $36 million, but I think Johnson’s camp will push for $40 million.

Final Contract Projection: Four years, $90 million - $40 million fully guaranteed