Welcome football fans to the final regular season edition of the Lynchpin Pickems where you will find everything you need to know about picking winners, betting trends, and where the smart money is straight up, against the spread, and in the over/under.
Recapping week 16, your boy was 10-6 straight up, 9-7 against the spread, and 7-9 in the over/under. What does all this mean? If you were to bet 5 dollars on every individual game, you would have profited Remember, parlay bets are fun, but they are risky as hell – so don’t bet what you don’t have. I like to throw down on individual games and take my chance on a combo to see if I can string together a nice win.
Week 17 is by far the hardest weekend to figure because there are some teams who are resting for playoffs, gunning for a final position, playing for a contract, or have emotionally checked out. Be careful on your picks, but I will give you the facts and go with the feel on the pick. Here’s what we got in week 17!
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills (-3) (O/U 39) Mark Sanchez gets the nod in the season finale in what has been a mess for the Jets this year. Sanchez is trying to erase the memory of the “butt fumble” from potential suitors memories as he plays a Bills squad he carved up at the first of the year. The road team is 8-2 ATS in this series, and I think the trend will continue in this one. I’ll take the Jets to win outright in the under.
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots (-10) (O/U 46.5) Motivation game for the Patriots, as in how motivated will they be if Houston wins in the early game? Patriots will get it done, but they have only covered 5 of their last 22 ATS as a double digit favorite, including last weekend at Jacksonville. Look for the Dolphins to keep this within the number, but the Patriots control this game with Ridley late. Pats win, Dolphins cover, give me the over
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) (O/U 41) – I love divisional games! This could be a preview of next weeks wildcard round, which would be in Baltimore. Hard to predict game because so much on the line and “who they want to play next” comes into effect. Ravens will get Ray Lewis back in this one, and they do just enough to get the win. This is the first time that the Bengals have been favored against the Ravens since 2008, so there is that! I like the Ravens to win it in the under
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers (No Line) - No line yet due to injuries. The Browns will be on their 3rd quarterback, and Trent Richardson will be limited. The Steelers will be without Mike Wallace, who probably has played his last game for the black and gold. I don’t really care about the line in this one, I think the Steelers win by double digits in whatever the under ends up being. Typical week 17 blowout.
Houston Texans (-7) vs Indianapolis Colts (O/U 46.5) – How motivated will Chuck Pagano be as he returns tot he sidelines in Indy this weekend since week 3? Houston controls their own destiny and can lock down homefield throughout with a win, while a loss will put them into the 3rd seed and a date with Cincy or Indy next week. The home team has covered the last 5 in this series, and look for upcoming rookie of the year candidate Andrew Luck to have a chance late to win it that comes up short. I’ll take the Colts to cover, Texans to win, and it being over the total.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans (-4) (O/U 42) Believe it or not, I have no idea about this one. The Titans gave up last week against the Packers in Lmbeau, and you’d think they would come out to play in the home finale. I really like Jacksonville to play hard and win this one on the road. Something just tells me that the Titans have emotionally checked out. Jacksonville in the upset in the over.
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants (-7.5) (O/U 46) – Andy Reid’s last game as Eagles coach? He is 60% covering on the road, even better as an underdog. The Giants are a poor home team, only covering 41% at home over the last 14 seasons. The Giants NEED this win, but if the Bears win at Detroit, how motivated will they be? I like the Eagles and Mike Vick’s audition game to play hard and cover the spread – but the Giants win it on a classic Eli Manning 4th quarter drive. I’ll take the under as well
Chicago Bears (-3) vs Detroit Lions (O/U 45) – The Bears will be hungry to get the W as it puts them in control of the wildcard race. The Lions have Calvin Johnsons record to 2000 yards receiving to play for, will that be a let down? Matt Forte is questionable for the Bears, but looks like he will be a go. I like the Bears to right the ship and get it done on the road in a signature game for Jay Cutler – who will get blasted in this one by the Lions pass rush. I will lay the points with da Bears in the under.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs Minnesota Vikings (O/U 46) Both teams are looking for the victory as the Pack will clinch #2 seed, while the Vikings will be in the crowded wildcard hunt. The Packers have won 32 of their last 38 games and are 20-8 in that time frame against the spread in December. The Vikings don’t play that well against good teams, so I like the Packers to really send a message in this one. I’ll lay the points with the Packers in the under
Tampa Bay Buccanears vs Atlanta Falcons (No Line) – The Falcons have nothing to play for, as they have clinched #1 throughout the NFC. I expect Tampa to win this game, being a little more hungry to end the season on a positive.
Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints (-4.5) (O/U 54) – Carolina has been a nice story this second half rebounding nicely, and I’ve said they have been playing better than their record showed. New Orleans stunned Dallas on the road last week in over time. I like Drew Brees to cap the year off with a win, although Newton has a good game and keeps it tight throughout. I’m going to lay the points with the Saints in the under
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos (-16) (O/U 42) – I immediately take out the biggest line of the day and take the points with the dog. I fully expect Peyton to win this game, but I dont expect to see him in the 4th quarter. The Broncos will win this game, but the Chiefs will be competitive against a rival and guys playing for jobs. I’ll take the points with the Chiefs, Broncos win in the under
Oakland Raiders vs San Diego Chargers (No Line) - Terrell Pryor debuts for the Raiders at quarterback this weekend and goes against a division rival in the Chargers who are 20-5 straight up in December in the Norv Turner era. Im confident taking the Chargers in this one
Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers (-16.5) (O/U 39) Again, way too many points in this one. The 49′ers will be hungry to turn their fate around and clinch up the division, but too much disrespect for a rival. The Cardinals are a mess, but sometimes the 49′ers have a tendency to play down to an opponent. With that said, I like the Cardinals to cover, 49 to still win by double digits, in the under
St Louis Rams vs Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) (O/U 41) - Seattle is coming off their biggest win of the season as they dismantled the 49ers in prime time, and are home to a young Rams team who has played the 49′ers tough twice. I think Jeff Fisher will have his team hungry to play spoiler, while the Seahawks will be looking at the 49ers/Cardinals game close and lose focus. The Seahawks will win this game, but it wont be double digits. I’ll take the Rams to cover in the under
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins (-3.5) (O/U 49) I am taking everything I know about football and throwing it out the window in a one and done situation. RG3 had his coming out party against the Boys on Thanksgiving, in which Romo played well to keep that game close. I think a second look at Rg3 will be crucial in this one, and the Cowboys will have DeMarco Murray in this one, which will give Romo more balance. I went against the Cowboys last weekend, but I think that they can be this years version of the New York Giants if they can get in….. I LOVE the Cowboys in this game. Im taking the Boys to win outright in the over. Bold prediction!
Good luck betters!