If you’ve ever walked out of a casino penniless you’ve likely felt Gambler’s Regret. You look back on what just happened trying to pinpoint where it all went wrong. Maybe you were up a little bit at some point and thought about leaving, but ultimately pushed your luck a bit too far. Maybe you played perfect strategy at a table, but then the dealer turned over a brutal card and you went broke. Maybe that damned slot machine just kept missing by one reel. Maybe it just wasn’t your night and you should have stayed home. Whatever it was that caused it, all gamblers have felt it.
I’ve come to the conclusion that 2011 has been one of the worst years of my thirty so far on this planet. Absolutely everything I’ve tried to accomplish has failed. I’m physically and mentally spent. I really cannot wait for 2012 – whether or not it’s the end of the world, it’s gotta be better than the last twelve months have been.
As you can probably tell, I had another lousy week of picks among other things. That’s pretty much par for the course at this point. 7-8-1 in the Week 15 picks, dropping the yearly record – yet again – down to 105-110-9 for the season to date.
Pick that was so easy I shouldn’t really get credit for it: Cowboys (-7) over BUCS. I think we’ve all just become too accustomed to the annual December collapse for the Cowboys. Sometimes, even they get a layup. And a Bucs team working on an eight-game losing streak certainly qualifies.
Pick I screwed up so badly that in hindsight it almost looks like I was picking the other team: Packers (-13.5) over CHIEFS. In fairness, I even said that Kyle Orton would be able to keep the game close. All week long, the only thing that worried me about this pick was Orton’s knowledge of the Pack from his time in Chicago. I kept coming back to him being familiar with the Green Bay schemes, and perhaps being able to do just enough to keep the Packers’ offense off the field. But in the end, the specter of Ricky Stanzi or Tyler Palko was just too much to ignore – guess I should have trusted my gut. Again.
Moment that had Las Vegas Sportsbooks EXPLODING: Once the Cardinals/Browns game went to overtime, the best that I and other Cardinals bettors could have hoped for was a push on the (-6) spread, unless someone had gotten the line lower or bought some leeway. So when the Browns were forced to punt to Patrick Peterson in overtime, I was sitting on the edge of my seat hoping for him to bust a long return, or even take it to the house. He didn’t, but a few plays later John Skelton found Larry Fitzgerald for a completion to the three-yard line. The Cardinals easily could have tried to put the ball in the end zone once or twice – which would have pushed a lot of bets, or pissed off a lot of Browns bettors. But instead, they kicked the chip-shot FG for a three-point win on first down, but a Cleveland cover.
Line I wrote that I wish I could delete from the Interwebs: From Ravens (-2.5) over CHARGERS: “The Ravens are the best team in the AFC right now. There’s no doubt about it.” It seems like every time I make a definitive proclamation like that – especially about Baltimore – it comes back to bite me in the ass almost immediately.
Line I wrote that I should probably pat myself on the back for: From EAGLES (-2.5) over Jets: “With a healthy Mike Vick, I think Philly can probably get out in front early and stay there.” The Eagles built a 28-0 lead early in this game before the Jets even sniffed points. Philly cruised to a 45-19 win, and a cover that was never in doubt.
Real life moment that crushed my fantasy hopes and dreams: Well, I’m done with fantasy football for this year. I’ve still got the third-place consolation game in the TVF league, after PatPhish got a miracle come-from-behind victory thanks to Ryan Matthews and the ineptitude of the Ravens’ defense and Anquan Boldin. So, this space will be going away for the year. I’m sure you’ll all miss hearing me ******** about my fantasy football teams on a weekly basis.
Snap Judgment of the week, #1: I have to admit, seeing the Bengals and Raiders fight it out for that final AFC Wild Card spot is sweet. One way or another, Carson Palmer is going to be prominently involved.
Snap Judgment of the week, #2: Speaking of prominently involved bad quarterbacks, I hope everyone realizes that in a couple weeks we might have the chance to bet against Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, TJ Yates, Tim Tebow, Tony Romo, Carson Palmer… and if we’re lucky Tavaris Jackson, John Skelton, and maybe even rookies Jake Locker or Andy Dalton! You really don’t realize how many ****** QBs there are in this league until the final few weeks leading up to the playoffs.
Snap Judgement of the week, #3: With two weeks left in the regular season, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict the AFC & NFC Title games… Pittsburgh at New England, New Orleans at Green Bay. And if that’s right, early congrats to Spencer and Sparty for nailing it back in August. I know, I’m taking a real chance there…