Originally written on The Victory Formation  |  Last updated 11/13/14

After back-to-back weeks going two games over .500, my yearly record is finally making a small recovery to get out of the ditch I dug myself in the middle of this season.  I’m still under .500, sitting at 66-73-7, but there’s plenty of time left in the season to get back up to where I want to be – my goal for every season is 20 games over .500.  It’ll be tough with only seven weeks of picks left, but it’s not impossible.

Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas, Delaware or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. All lines from Bodog or **SBRForum** are accurate as of the time this was typed – 8pm Thursday. Home teams in CAPS. That about covers it.)

Bye Weeks: Steelers / Saints / Texans / Colts

BRONCOS (+7) over Jets: From Twitter, at about 1pm Thursday: “I’m taking the #Broncos +7 tonight. If there’s one thing I’ve learned in 2011, it’s ‘Don’t give Tim Tebow a reason to prove himself.’ #Jets”  Let’s be honest – how many games this year have the Jets been involved in where we walked away saying “Those teams just set NFL offenses back by 10 years”?  Gotta be at least as many times as we said the Patriots have set NFL Defenses back just as far, right?

LIONS (-7) over Panthers: One of two things happened to the Lions last week.  Either they got beat by a very, very underrated Chicago team in Soldier Field, or else they were completely exposed and reverted to the team that has been in a Detroit uniform since… well, since about the mid-90’s.  I’m guessing it’s the former.  Chicago is not a bad team right now, but neither are the Lions.

PACKERS (-14) over Bucs: The 2011 Packers are the 2007 Patriots reincarnate right now.  Only with a better offense, if that’s even possible.  Green Bay still hasn’t clinched anything, so they’ll be playing tough for the full 60.  Meanwhile, Tampa is all but out of the NFC playoff race – they’re currently sitting fifth in the Wild Card, but holding no tiebreakers.  They’re done.

REDSKINS (+8) over Cowboys: Learned my lesson giving that many points on the road.  Especially in a division game.  Not to mention, we’ve just about reached the point of the season that the Cowboys start looking unstoppable, only to drop a very winnable division game and shoot themselves in the foot in the playoff race, breaking their fans hearts.  It’s almost a Thanksgiving tradition at this point.

** DOLPHINS (-1) over Bills **: “Here comes that Buffalo slide…” I’m just leaving those five words exactly as I typed them last week.  This pick is nothing more than a gut feeling – one more Miami win would all but hand Andrew Luck to the Colts, so we can stop talking in probabilities and start talking about the very real chances that Peyton Manning has played his last game with a horseshoe on his helmet.

Jaguars (+1) over BROWNS: Eh, **** it.  Why not?

Raiders (-1) over VIKINGS: I have no idea why the line is so low, but I’m happy to take Oakland in this matchup and only have to give up one point to do it.  Hell, some sites have it as low as a Pick-Em.

RAVENS (-7) over Bengals: What did I write last week?  The Ravens and Saints will absolutely **** over a lot of bettors every single game?  Yeah…  Cincy might be a nice story.  But back-to-back games against the real meat of the division will knock them back down a peg or two.  They’re not quite ready for prime time yet.

RAMS (-1) over Seahawks: This line is all over the place right now on SBR.  Some are at (-1), some are as high as (-3).  I like it better at one point, so that’s where I’d try to get it.

49ERS (-9) over Cardinals: Another one with a wide range – from Niners(-9) all the way to (-11).  I still can’t believe we live in a world where the 49ers are giving up double digit points to a division opponent in November.  I am just dumbfounded at what Jim Harbaugh has done there.  I guess the question needs to be asked: Does Mike Singletary ever get another head coaching job?  I mean, he had basically the same pieces and couldn’t even sniff the playoffs.

FALCONS (-7) over Titans: Just as long as Mike Smith doesn’t have another brain fart on the Falcons’ sidelines, they should be fine.  Tennessee still has an outside chance to take the AFC South, especially with the Texans injury roster running out of space.  But the Falcons are tough to play at home, and I think the offense will have a big day.  Just a gut feeling.

BEARS (-4) over Chargers: This is not the game the Chargers needed.  They needed a home game against a ****** team like Cleveland, Indy or Seattle.  Instead, they’re getting the likely first NFC Wild Card, and they have to travel to Chicago for it.  This game isn’t going to be close – I’ll even go so far as to say the Bears win 27-10.

** GIANTS (-4) over Eagles **: Philly is done.  They’re just about ready to pack it in.  In fact, if they finish the year at 8-8, I’ll be very impressed.  Meanwhile, the Giants are coming off of a tough cross-country letdown game loss in San Fran, so a little home cooking and a game against a big division rival should wake them back up.

PATRIOTS (-15) over Chiefs: I have no reason to give up this many points with a defense as bad as the Patriots’.  Then again, I can name two starters on the Chiefs.  Total.  And neither one is a quarterback or a defender.


Best Multi-Team Bet: Holy ****, that is way too many home teams.  Not to mention eleven favorites.  I’m gonna put up an 0-fer the week… anyway, take the money lines on New England, Green Bay, Chicago San Fran and the Giants.  And if you can tease the Lions, Niners and Ravens down, you should be safe.  Should…

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