Originally written on The Victory Formation  |  Last updated 11/10/14
Houston_texans_v_b190

Much thanks to Arian Foster for his stellar performance in the Thursday Night game for the Houston Texans.  If I wanted to have any chance of beating KWSN in the TVF fantasy league third-place consolation game, I needed Foster to have a huge game.  And he did just that.

As for this week’s picks… let’s face it: you’re not reading this.  I’m probably typing this solely for myself to re-read, and for CBH and KWSN to tell me how wrong I am and rip them apart.  I was 7-8-1 last week, putting me at 105-110-9 on the 2011 season.  Meaning, I’m pretty much toast for this season.  So let’s keep them simple so you can get back to not caring about your last day of work before Christmas…

Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas, Delaware or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. All lines from Bodog or **SBRForum** are accurate as of the time this was typed – 10pm Thursday. Home teams in CAPS. That about covers it.)

Texans (-7) over COLTS: From Twitter at 7:30pm Thursday…

Well, I got the Arian Foster yardage (158), and one score.  But the Texans left too many points on the board by settling for three FGs throughout the game, and gagged the lead away in the final seconds. For some reason, I thought the game was in Houston; If I’d realized it was in Indy, I probably would have flipped my pick.  Hate taking road favorites for more than three points.  But congrats to the Colts for becoming the first NFL team with one or fewer wins to beat a 10-win team.  That’s today’s NFL…

Raiders (+2) over CHIEFS: If ever there was a “letdown game” in the NFL, it’s this week for the Chiefs.  How do you follow-up the biggest upset of the season?

Broncos (-3) over BILLS: So much for the whole “Buffalo might not lose a game at home” prediction from earlier in the season…

Jaguars (+7.5) over TITANS: Yeesh.  Both of these teams have trouble putting up points, but on the other hand the Titans are still trying to make a playoff push, while the Jaguars are just waiting for the season to be over to they can pack their bags for Los Angeles.

BENGALS (-4) over Cardinals: One of these teams is completely out of the playoff hunt with a loss in this game. So naturally, it’ll probably end up tied.  Speaking of… is Donovan McNabb still unemployed?

PATRIOTS (-9.5) over Dolphins: This area has been unseasonably warm this fall/winter.  Like, ridiculously warm.  The high on Thursday was 55, when the “average” is supposed to be in the 30s.  So of course, this weekend when the team from Miami comes to town, the temperature is going to drop twenty degrees with the possibility of snow/sleet/rain.  Love it.  Pats by 17+.

RAVENS (-13) over Browns: I really don’t trust the Ravens anymore, but they’re pretty hard to stop at home.  Not to mention, Seneca Wallace is going to be prominently involved.

JETS (-3) over Giants: I’m actually really interested in this game.  I have no idea why, since I despise both teams.  But this game intrigues me; I’m going to enjoy watching one of these teams call it a season.

Vikings (+6.5) over REDSKINS: Combination of another letdown game (Washington) coupled with Adrian Peterson likely returning means I’m not totally terrified of backing Christian Ponder on the road.

PANTHERS (-7.5) over Bucs: My entire fantasy week is riding on the Panthers.  I’m starting Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams and Greg Olsen… it’s Panthers or bust!  They’ll probably get shutout with six combined turnovers.

** Rams (+17.5) over STEELERS **: Nobody’s taking any actual action this line with Big Ben a total question mark leading up to Saturday’s kickoff.  Some sites were listing it in the 17.5-point range, which seems ridiculously high for a team with a gimpy QB, coming off a short week and two cross-country flights in four days.

LIONS (-3) over Chargers: San Diego kinda terrifies me.  If the Broncos lose out, the Raiders fall apart, and the Chiefs collapse, the Chargers are the best team left in that division.

SEAHAWKS (+2.5) over 49ers: Doesn’t it seem like the Seahawks miraculously backing into the sixth NFC playoff spot would just be a perfect representation of how bad the league is in the middle of the pack?

Eagles (+3) over COWBOYS: This line moves from -1.5 down to -3.5, but Bodog has it at -3 right now.  Once again, if the Eagles’ offense is healthy, there’s no reason they can’t hang 30+ on a good defense.  Dallas does not have a good defense.  So… yeah, I’m happy taking the points.

** PACKERS (-13) over Bears **: Bodog is the only major website that isn’t listing this game.  Of course it is.  Anyway, One of the McCown boys is playing QB, on the road, on National TV for Chicago.  That’s enough for me.

SAINTS (-7) over Falcons:  I cannot even begin to express how much I’m looking forward to the roughly 146 points scored in the NFC Title game between Green Bay and New Orleans.  If one of these teams somehow screw that up, I am going to be beyond disappointed.

RECAP: TEXANS / Raiders / Broncos / Jaguars / BENGALS / PATRIOTS / RAVENS / JETS / Vikings / PANTHERS / Rams / LIONS / SEAHAWKS / Eagles / PACKERS / SAINTS

Best Multi-Team Bet: Patriots/Ravens/Steelers/Packers on the money line looks to be extremely safe, even if you probably won’t even get 1-to-1 return.  But a win’s a win, and that should be a win.

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