Found December 07, 2011 on The Victory Formation:

If you’ve ever walked out of a casino penniless you’ve likely felt Gambler’s Regret.  You look back on what just happened trying to pinpoint where it all went wrong.  Maybe you were up a little bit at some point and thought about leaving, but ultimately pushed your luck a bit too far.  Maybe you played perfect strategy at a table, but then the dealer turned over a brutal card and you went broke.  Maybe that damned slot machine just kept missing by one reel.  Maybe it just wasn’t your night and you should have stayed home.  Whatever it was that caused it, all gamblers have felt it.

Well, nothing changed in Week 13.  I entered the week sitting squarely at .500 with an overall record of 84-84-8.  And it stayed at .500 after an 8-8 week of picks.  So I’m 92-92-8 through thirteen weeks of picks.  Twenty games over by the end of the year seems out of reach, but ten games over is still a possibility…

Pick that was so easy I shouldn’t really get credit for it: STEELERS (-7) over Bengals: Cincy never had a chance.  Remember, they were a long shot to even reach six wins on the year when the lockout ended (ignore my prediction for the Bengals on that page, thank you very much).  To be in playoff contention right now is a minor miracle, even if I think they’ll eventually fade to the Titans or Jets.

Pick I screwed up so badly that in hindsight it almost looks like I was picking the other team: Cowboys (-4) over CARDINALS. I’m only putting this here because of KWSN’s uncanny ability to shatter my logic on my “Best Multi-Team Bet”.  I only missed this cover by seven points, unlike the Patriots, Rams or Raiders picks that were each off by double digits.

Moment that had Las Vegas Sportsbooks EXPLODING:  With two minutes left in the fourth quarter of a tie game in the Metrodome, bettors on both sides of the action were sweating it out.  The Broncos had been hovering around (+2) for most of the week, but in a game that had turned into a shootout, the Vikings had the ball and a chance to drive downfield for a game winning FG (and a cover).  Worst case scenario, Minnesota wouldn’t cover enough ground, but might get a chance in overtime… well, that was the worst case scenario… until Christian Ponder served up a gift of an INT on his own 25 yard line, and the Broncos lined up the ball for the game winning FG – and the cover.

Line I wrote that I wish I could delete from the Interwebs: From Lions (+9) over SAINTS: “Overreaction Line.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions won outright” I have to admit, I forgot that this game had been flexed into the Prime Time Sunday Night Football spot over Patriots/Colts.  That probably would have changed my pick, or at least made me reconsider writing such a definitive statement.  The Superdome is a rockin’ stadium before the national TV lights shine on the Saints.  The place is downright insane for the Prime Time games.

Line I wrote that I should probably pat myself on the back for: From PATRIOTS (-20) over Colts: “Only garbage time could cover this line, and it’s really only a matter of how early “garbage time” starts.”  There’s absolutely no reason that the Colts should have ever been within even fourteen points after halftime, let alone seven.  The Patriots completely quit in the fourth quarter, on both sides of the ball.  A 31-3 lead going to the fourth should have been a safe lead until the final whistle, let alone a safe cover.  It was neither.

Real life moment that crushed my fantasy hopes and dreams: Because of my unwavering faith in the New England offense, especially against horrible teams like Indy, I lost $50 for a weekly high score.  I had flip flopped back and forth between Aaron Hernandez and Tony Gonzalez at my tight end position in a league all week long, finally settling on Hernandez.  And while his four points scored were nice, I really could have used Gonzalez’ ten points.  Especially since I lost the high score in the league 107-104.  At least I won my matchup; of course, I was already eliminated from the playoffs in that league two weeks ago.

Best text message sent or received: I wish I could use the text here that I actually want, but Pat vetoed it immediately after he sent it to me.  Like seriously; ten seconds after he sent it, he sent “That WILL NOT be your text of the week“. So instead, a short conversation between The Watsonian and I on Saturday.  During the Big Tweleven Championship game, Watsonian had e-mailed to let me know that he was unbelievably stressed over the game.  He was pounding whisky, and could barely breathe.  So when the game ended in standard “Sparty NO!” fashion, he took out his anger on the logical target via text message… me.

            D: “Yikes.  Sorry Dude”

           W: “I hate you.  Not really.  But **** You.”

            D: “Well then. I see the whisky (and Wisky) have worn you out.”

Snap Judgment of the week, #1:  The only way the Patriots are not eliminated from the playoffs in their first game (whether that’s the Wild Card or Divisional Round) is if they manage to draw Houston, Denver, Oakland, New York or Cincinatti.  Any other AFC playoff contender will end their season early, again.

Snap Judgment of the week, #2:  On the plus side, it looks like three of those five teams are in line to make the playoffs, so the Pats could theoretically make it to the Super Bowl without having to play a QB better than rookie Andy Dalton.  Where they would summarily be dispatched by Aaron Rodgers, or possibly Drew Brees.

Snap Judgement of the week, #3: I’m starting to think that the Lions are going to miss the playoffs.  They and Buffalo were the best stories early in the season, but now it looks like both teams will be watching the postseason from home.

Snap Judgement of the week, #4: Miami is absolutely killing themselves with this little run of mediocrity.  They’re currently in a six-way tie for the #4 overall pick, behind Indy, Minnesota and St. Louis.  So they might end up playing themselves right out of a top-10 draft pick.  With the popularity of the Heat and the Marlins making all kinds of media splashes to fill a new stadium, the Dolphins could really have used a big name in the draft this coming April.

PatPhish vs. Big D Weekly “I Bet You” Update: I’m out of money.  Unless Pat lets me start making $20 weekly bets like “Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady will combine for more passing yards than Kevin Kolb”, I don’t know how much more I can do on this front.

THE BACKYARD
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