Trading Joe Mixon, Drew Sample's pay raise, and other surprises the Bengals pulled off in free agency

Even one of the most predictable free agency periods in recent Cincinnati Bengals history had to include some surprises thrown into the mix.

The names of those who became the newest Bengals this month did not come out of the blue. Geno Stone, Zack Moss, Mike Gesicki, and Trent Brown were popular suggestions thrown out by fans and analysts alike. But much like your March Madness bracket, everything didn't go exactly to plan.

We called our shots three weeks ago with a handful of Bengals free agency surprise predictions. Let's see how we shot from the field. 

Surprise Prediction: Bengals lead the way in the safety market

Outcome: False, but kinda true?

They didn't break the bank by any means, but they did sign a safety before any other position. Cincinnati took part in the early safety movement by securing Stone for two years, $14 million. 

Stone's average annual value of $7m per year falls below the likes of Darnell Savage ($7.25m) and Kevin Byard ($7.5m) but ahead of Brandon Jones ($6.66m), Alohi Gilman ($5.0625m), Jordan Whitehead and Kamren Curl ($4.5m).

The Bengals paid more for going early, but that's the cost of business when acquiring an ascending player. 

Surprise Prediction: Joe Mixon is kept on the roster

Outcome: False

What happened to Mixon was the first true surprise of Cincinnati's free agency. That he's off the roster isn't a shock to anyone, but learning he had a trade market was a refreshing twist. 

The Bengals got an extra seventh round pick by trading a player they were reportedly set to release after signing Moss to a two-year, $8m deal. Mixon not only immediately transferred to a contending team in the Houston Texans, his new club also gave him a two-year extension worth nearly $10 million per year featuring more guaranteed money than he ever signed for with the Bengals. 

A lot of whiplash we're still recovering from.

Surprise Prediction: Drew Sample gets a larger payday than expected

Outcome: True

"Of all the internal UFAs the Bengals will have to decide on, I can see Sample being the one they overvalue the most." - Me.

Nailed it. 

Sample is getting $4.9m in cash this season and is under contract through the 2026 season. The Bengals can cut him anytime after 2024 and not be financially penalized for it, but his deal is still far better than what most assumed it'd be. 

Surprise Prediction: Akeem Davis-Gaither returns to stay as a reserve

Outcome: True

Both of Cincinnati's starting linebackers being locked in together for the next two years gave the impression that Davis-Gaither may want to find work elsewhere. The Bengals made a generous offer for him to return for another year, and sure enough, ADG is set to continue his role as the first backer off the bench.

Instead of having one of Markus Bailey or Joe Bachie fill Davis Gaither's shoes, the Bengals have yet to re-sign either of them and are currently thin at the position. Another surprise would be if neither Bailey nor Bachie returned at all this offseason.

Surprise Prediction: Bengals sign a David Mulugheta client

Outcome: False, hilariously false

LOL. Mulugheta led his clients nearly everywhere else but the Queen City, and he's attempting to do the same with Tee Higgins' trade request. Even the notoriously anti-free agency Green Bay Packers struck a market-resetting deal with one of his players in safety Xavier McKinney.

There's nothing to this partnership. If it wasn't for the rookie wage scale, would the two sides ever agree on anything? Probably not.

Other surprises to note

Managing the defensive interior

Signing a soon-to-be 30-year old 3-technique from another club but not the soon-to-be 30-year old nose tackle that's been on the roster since 2020 was a bit stunning. Sheldon Rankins is here as another #98 from the Houston Texans, and DJ Reader is now with the Detroit Lions.

Cincinnati's defense is on the verge of natural selection and must evolve with the personnel it has. Does that mean playing without a true nose tackle for the year? Will a true Reader replacement arrive in the NFL Draft? There's still much to learn about their plan.

Two safeties, no cornerbacks

As soon as Vonn Bell got his walking papers from the Carolina Panthers, most knew what would happen next. Bell is now back with the Bengals for a much smaller deal than even the Bengals were willing to offer last year when he left. Instead of just Dax Hill being impacted by free agency, Jordan Battle's role will likely change as well now.

Closer to the line of scrimmage, a cornerback has yet to be added to the mix after Chidobe Awuzie got his bag from the Tennessee Titans. I say yet because it would be equally surprising if they entered the draft without signing one.