Found September 17, 2012 on The Pass Rush:


Falcons vs. Broncos Pick Against the SpreadWe nailed two picks at 1:00, lost two at 4:00, and closed out Sunday of week 2 with a win thanks to the 49ers over the Lions. Tonight, we’re given an oustanding Monday Night game between the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos. Is this one worth betting on?

DENVER BRONCOS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-3)

The spread has not moved on this line at all, standing pat at Falcons (-3). I was expecting the majority of money to come in on the Falcons, but that just hasn’t been the case. The public loves Peyton Manning this week on the road and would rather take him with a field goal. We have a near 50-50 split on where the bets are being placed tonight. The public is actually favoring Denver (+3) with 53% of the bets coming in on Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

Both teams are coming off big week 1 wins. The Falcons went on the road to destroy the Kansas City Chiefs 40-24 and the Denver Broncos took care of business at home by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-19.

I’ve been liking the Falcons throughout the week as I see their offense likely ending the season in the top three in both points scored and yards gained. The Falcons have also been dominant at home. The Falcons are 9-5 ATS at home in the last three years and the Broncos are 8-8 ATS in the last three years on the road. The Falcons also play very well in non-conference games. The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in the last 3 years in non-conference games, while the Broncos are 2-6 ATS. The Falcons also play very well as the favorite, going 16-8 ATS in the last three years. I like the betting trends so far for the Falcons, but don’t want to put too much emphasis on them.

There’s one key injury to the Falcons which could end up hurting them throughout the season and particularly tonight. The Falcons lost CB Brent Grimes for the season due to an Achilles injury.

When we look at this matchup, it’s very even. Both phenomenal offenses. Both solid defenses. The Broncos defense may be a bit better overall as the Broncos were great at generating pressure against the Steelers and piling up 5 sacks. The Falcons gave up 17 points in the first half against the Chiefs, but buckled down and forced three turnovers in the second half.

Many think Peyton Manning will be able to pick apart this Falcons defense and that’s a huge concern if you’re leaning Falcons (-3). I want to look into how the Falcons have played at home when facing the NFL’s elite QBs: Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. The Falcons were 6-2 at home last year with losses to the Saints (26-23) and Packers (25-14). In 2010, the Falcons were 7-1 at home, also losing to the Saints 17-14 but beating the Packers 20-17. The Falcons did beat Drew Brees on the road in 2010 though. Overall, the Falcons struggle against those elite QBs, so don’t expect tonight to be any different.

Tonight’s over/under is 51.5. The bar is set pretty high. 65% of the public likes the over. Everyone expects each team to put up a minimum of 24 here. This should be a full out aerial assault from both teams as the Denver D bottled up Pittsburgh’s run and the Falcons are moving away from the run in favor of the passing game. I’m expecting a back and forth offensive shootout tonight.

After taking a deeper look into tonight’s game, I’m going to flip-flop on my prior inclinations. The Falcons are phenomenal at home (Matt Ryan is 26-4 there), but the Falcons struggle against elite QBs. The Broncos have a better defense than the Falcons thanks to elite passrushers Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil and solid corners on the outside with Champ Bailey and Tracey Porter. If those players show up tonight, the Falcons offense can be held in check, and the Broncos have a great shot at pulling off the outright road win. Peyton Manning looked sharp in week 1 and should be able to find holes in the Falcons defense out that just lost one of their star corners. However, Atlanta is a tough place to play which may limit the Broncos offensively.

I’m going to do one of my famous Monday Night teasers in this spot. I’m going to tack on the points to the underdog and take Denver Brocnos (+10) and tease it with the over 44.5. I originally liked the Falcons (-3), but I think you’ll see that Broncos defense is just that much better than the Falcons and it will be the Falcons playing catchup with Manning.

Prediction: Broncos 31 – Falcons 28

Pick Against the Spread: Teaser Broncos (+10) & Over 44.5

THE BACKYARD
BEST OF MAXIM
RELATED ARTICLES

Did Indianapolis screw up by releasing Peyton Manning?

… Read more
STELLAR CRAFTSMANSHIP

Fan converts Manning jersey into Luck jersey

I understand the economy is rough, but converting an old Peyton Manning Colts jersey into an Andrew Luck jersey isn’t a very good luck, as you see from the picture above. It would have been better to just wear the Manning jersey and not alter it, or buy a Luck jersey. Who converts a Manning jersey to a Luck jersey? #ThisRedneck @nflrt twitter.com/AndrewLucksHea… — Andrew...

Manning falters early, Broncos lose to Falcons

Peyton Manning's second game with the Denver Broncos looked nothing like his first. Manning threw interceptions on Denver's first three possessions, and the Broncos could not recover from the poor start in a 27-21 loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night. In a 3-hour, 27-minute game marred by questionable decisions from replacement officials and long clock stoppages...

Week 3 fantasy football podcast

Each Tuesday during the 2012 fantasy football season Mike Harmon and John Halpin hop on the internet to talk all things football in their weekly Fantasy 15 podcast. This week Harmon and Halpin recap the latest referee shortfalls, Peyton Manning's ineffectiveness and Michael Turner, boom or bust. >> Listen to Fantasy 15 for September 18 >> Listen to Fantasy 15...

With Leather’s Watch This: Peyton’s The Manning

If the start of both football seasons has taught me anything, it’s that I am out of shape. I don’t mean my fat ass, because that’s an obvious statement. I mean my ability to day drink. Hoo boy, I am not 22-years old anymore, and that is just depressing. I actually found myself shaking my proverbial fist at college students this weekend for being too drunk. The hell is wrong...

Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons: The Hero and the Zero

Denver had a late second half rally to get with in a one possession game, but at the end of the game, the unspeakable, horrendous, first half play of the Broncos was too much for Manning and the team to overcome.  As always, when the day is over we have to have a winner and a loser and yes, a hero and a zero.Let’s start with the zero today.  It would be easiest to point the finger...

ESPN Develops Most Confusing Next Level Voting System Ever

Not kidding, I spent five minutes at this screencap from ‏@pbsmith7 trying to figure out what the f*ck this voting system was. Who am I supposed to be voting for? What number do I enter? And they expect the morons who vote on this garbage to figure it out? Anyway, good game from Peyton Manning; 3INTs and a 58.5% QB rating. In other NFL news, how bad are the Kansas City Chiefs...

Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons: Five Things We Learned

After a weekend full of exciting football matchups, I was excited to watch the Monday night game featuring the meeting of two undefeated teams, the Denver Broncos visiting the Atlanta Falcons. Ok, the league has only played one week, but Denver was impressive in beating Pittsburgh 31 to 19 at home on September 9 in the Sunday night game while Atlanta used a dominant second half in...

What to say when your NFL player is in trouble with the law

Michael Turner's DUI arrest last night after his Falcons beat Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos treated fans to another soothing yet empty team statement that tells nothing. Most NFL franchises have the routine down pat. For those that don't, This Given Sunday shares this template of what to say when the fertilizer hits the ventilator. The [insert team name...

Looking At The YAC Allowed In The Steelers 27-10 Win Over The Jets

Last week I noted the poor job the Pittsburgh Steelers did in their opener against the Denver Broncos at tackling the catch as they allowed 126 total YAC in that game. Now of course it did not help that Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas had 70 of those yards on the 1 yard screen pass from quarterback Peyton Manning that ended in a touchdown 70 yards later, but you just can&...

2012 NFL Week 2 TOX Stats

Week 2 of the 2012 NFL season is in the books and here are the second set of TOX stats for season along with the year to date numbers for all 32 teams at the bottom. For the second week in a row teams with a +2 TOX stat went 9-1 overall and that brings the year to date number to 18-2 (90%). Teams with a +1 TOX stat went 3-2 in week 2 and that brings that year to date number to 6...

MNF: Broncos vs Falcons

The Denver Broncos (1-0) trot over to the Georgia Dome on Monday night to face the Atlanta Falcons (1-0). Both teams started the season with wins last week as Denver defeated Pittsburgh 31-19 and Atlanta took down Kansas City 40-24. As I said in my write-up last week, Monday Night Football is the prime time for NFL teams. It’s a chance to show off to the entire league what you’re...

Week 3 QB Rankings

Week 3 QB Rankings Cam Newton tops our list this week after he set a career high in rushing yards last week. Superman (SuperCam) looks near impossible to stop when he decides to run it in the red zone and with the emergence of Brandon LaFell, owners can now be confident that Newton has two legit receivers to throw to. I have RGIII ranked high following week two’s matchup with the...
NFL News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.