When the Chiefs are ready to extend Creed Humphrey's contract, here's what it's projected to cost

After getting drafted in the second round of the 2021 draft Creed Humphrey quickly established himself as one of the best centers in the NFL. Over his first two seasons as a pro, he allowed only 28 pressures, 24 hurries and one sack as a pass blocker while also grading out as an extremely effective run blocker.

Humphrey’s allowed pressure rate of 1.77% was one of the lowest in football over that time period. In 2021, he ranked third in allowed pressures among centers with at least 962 snaps - he was seventh in 2022. He also rated as Pro Football Focus’ top run blocking center in both of those seasons. Humphrey contributed all of this stellar play without missing a single game over those two seasons.

This strong play helped Humphrey earn several honors. He finished third in the voting for Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2021, an award that rewards playmakers and not linemen. He followed that up with a Pro Bowl nod and a second-team All-Pro nomination in 2022.

This past year was a step back for Humphrey. His pressure allowed rate spiked to (a still very good) 2.16% while he allowed four sacks and his run blocking grade fell from the low 90’s to the high 70’s. His run blocking grade fell from first overall among all centers to seventh. Even in a down year, Humphrey still garnered another Pro Bowl selection while starting all 17 games.

Added to these accolades is 10 playoff starts and two Super Bowls for the talented young center. All of this gives Humphrey a good base to compare his next contract to the top-paid centers in the NFL. Here is a look at his first three years against those players's three years prior to their latest deals.

Creed Humphrey's first three years compared to the top-paid centers' three years prior to respective new deals

Humphrey leads the way in starts and pressure rate allowed, second in weighted PFF run block grade and Pro Bowls.

Just this off-season, Lloyd Cushenberry signed a four-year, $50 million contract. Objectively, Humphrey has played better than Cushenberry in every trackable metric; setting the floor for Humphrey’s next extension.

The one area that is holding Humphrey back is his snapping. He has had trouble consistently snapping the ball correctly which has led some to speculate there may be a move to guard in his future. From a contract-perspective that may work in his favor. If he sticks at center it could become a point of contention on his value.

Where it gets trickier is how much Kansas City will value Humphrey’s stellar pass protection and whether that can help the center position start to catch up to guards. Historically, centers have had one of the lowest valuations in football when it came to non-rookie contracts. Here is the center position stacked up against the other offensive line positions at the highest paid, top-five, 10 and 15 contracts.

Average salary figures for each offensive line position

The center position trails the next closest position by 17-29% at each level. Humphrey’s run blocking prowess stacks up well against the future Hall-of-Famer Jason Kelce while his pass blocking is legitimately better than any of his contemporaries.

Kelce’s deal was for one-year and $14.25 million in 2023. That represented 6.33% of that year’s cap. Jonah Jackson just signed a $17 million APY deal with the Rams to make him the third-highest paid left guard. That $17 million APY was equivalent to 6.66% of the 2024 salary cap.

Humphrey should hold out to ellipse Jackson’s APY as a percent of the salary cap. If he aims for 6.75% of the 2024 salary cap, Humphrey would push the top of the center market up to $17.25 million. That would be a $3 million increase at the top of the market and Kansas City will likely push back on jumping the market that much.

I would expect the team to counter with a deal that mimics Kelce’s percent of salary cap closely with a marginal bump. 6.35% of this year’s salary cap would be a $16.25 million APY. The two sides would work within that $1 million range for a final deal.

The other point of negotiation will be the fully guaranteed portion of the deal. The current high-water mark is just under $28 million held by Frank Ragnow. That was just over half of his total contract value. Outside of Kelce’s unique one-year, fully guaranteed deal the most of the rest of the top of the center market revolves around 50% of the total value of the deal fully guaranteed. This would have Humphrey pushing for $33 million with the two sides settling just under that figure.

Final Contract Projection: Four years, $66 million - $16.5 million APY - $32.5 million fully guaranteed