Originally posted on Shutdown Line  |  Last updated 6/8/12

One potential unrestricted free agent was taken off the market yesterday when the Colorado Avalanche re-signed winger David Jones to a four-year contract worth $16 mil. This might not look like a big deal at first glance, but has the potential to be a pretty awful contract for the Avalanche. Jones might have two 20-goal seasons under his belt, but a closer look at his numbers suggests that the chances of him sustaining this kind of production are slim.

Season GP G Pts OZ% Corsi QoC Corsi Rel. On-Ice Sh% Sh% 2007-08 27 2 6 55.1 -0.683 -1 4.96 5.4 2008-09 40 8 13 54 0.85 -1.7 6.5 17 2009-10 23 10 16 46.1 0.575 1.1 11.41 25.6 2010-11 77 27 45 50.7 0.69 -3.6 9.52 17.6 2011-12 72 20 37 51.2 -0.123 -7.5 7.56 14.7

 

Over the last three years, Jones has been incredibly lucky when it came to shooting the puck. He wasn't exactly being used in the toughest of situations but was still underwater territorially in most seasons. He was able to score 20+ goals because about 15% or more of the shots he took ended up in the back of the net. In addition to that, the Avs were shooting at a higher rate as a team when he was on the ice during the 2009 & 2010 seasons. Unless Jones can maintain his career shooting percentage of 16.3%, his production is probably going to take a significant drop. This is one of the reasons why I wanted Carolina to stay away from him this off-season and why I think this contract will look awful by this time next year. 

How does this concern Carolina, though? Because they are in the market for a top-line winger and the Avs just signed a guy who is a 2nd liner at best to a deal worth $4 mil. per season. This gives us an idea of what the market will look like in about a month when free agency hits and it does make you a little concerned about how much money Jim Rutherford will need to shell out to acquire a top line winger. Rutherford made a similar decision by signing Tuomo Ruutu to a four year contract worth $750k more per season, so most knew what the market was going to be like this year. The news of the salary cap increasing to $70.3 mil. also means that teams are going to shell out more money than usual for some players, so you'll probably see more deals like this handed out over the next month or so. 

Just how much money does Rutherford need to spend to acquire that top line winger he is looking for, though? That is something I can't answer right now, but I have to think that it is in the ballpark of Jones and Ruutu contracts, likely more. Spending a lot of money for next season isn't a big deal with the cap being so high, but Rutherford can make things much easier on the team long-term by avoiding signing players to 4+ year contracts and offering more money for less years instead. It doesn't seem like anyone on the market this year is going to provide a long-term solution to Carolina, so short-term contracts appear to be the way to go. He's going to be overpaying no matter what, but shortening the term of the contract minimizes the overall risk of it. 

No matter what Rutherford does, he has to be smarter than the Avs were with this Jones contract when he looks to fill the void on the top line. Granted, the Avs are in a tougher situation because they are ways away from the cap floor, but no GM should be offering four year contracts to a player whose success is mostly driven by luck. That's not what you should do when you're on a budget or when you're  a rebuilding team. This along with the Cody McLeod contract puts the Avs summer of to a very rough start. Let's hope Rutherford doesn't follow suit.

GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Arum says Pacquiao would fight McGregor if Mayweather won't

Aaron Judge hits first grand slam of his career

David Stern: Lakers could have had Chris Paul, GM panicked

Brandon Jacobs vows to 'expose' Jim Harbaugh, get him fired

Mike Zimmer won’t retire even if right eye goes blind

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Kevin Love responds to Draymond Green’s ‘annihilation’ trash talk

Spike Lee deletes Instagram post saying Kaepernick signed with Seattle

Errol Spence is the real deal, takes down Kell Brook

Indians reveal Frank Robinson statue at Progressive Field

Report: Jerry West considered rejoining the Lakers before they hired Magic Johnson

The NHL is thinking about hosting an outdoor game in Nashville

Getaway Day: There's a murderer's row in the NL West

Journey to the Stanley Cup Final: Pittsburgh Penguins

Best of Yardbarker: Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines

The 'More like Whiffer, Texas Ranger...amirite?' quiz

The Rewind: Vince Carter's graduation day celebration that wasn't

Manu Ginobili gave life to the San Antonio Spurs

Stanley Cup Final: A David vs. Goliath matchup that's not as lopsided as it may appear

Why the Indianapolis 500 is called 'the greatest spectacle in racing'

The 10 best sports docs available for streaming

Box Score 5/26: Bring on the Finals

Why wait? Our too soon Cavaliers-Warriors NBA Finals preview

Kicking It: East is East, and West is West

NHL News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Getaway Day: There's a murderer's row in the NL West

Journey to the Stanley Cup Final: Pittsburgh Penguins

Best of Yardbarker: Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines

The 'More like Whiffer, Texas Ranger...amirite?' quiz

Stanley Cup Final: A David vs. Goliath matchup that's not as lopsided as it may appear

Manu Ginobili gave life to the San Antonio Spurs

The Rewind: Vince Carter's graduation day celebration that wasn't

The 10 best sports docs available for streaming

Kicking It: East is East, and West is West

Three Up, Three Down: Some surprises way out (NL) West

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker