Duncan Keith: Chicago Runs On Duncan

For the most part, Keith has been a stranger to the minus-rating his entire career, maybe even allergic to it. But, last year was the first time since the 2005-2006 season (his rookie campaign) that Duncan finished the season under zero.

Coming off an Olympic Gold, Stanley Cup, and Norris Trophy season, there's no question Duncan Keith suffered a set back in his career for the 2010-2011 season like most of the Chicago Blackhawks but let's be honest, that's hard to top. The proverbial Cup hangover seemed to effect the entire team, and Blackhawk fans quickly learned how important it was for Duncan to play well for the team to succeed.

This season has been a better story for Keith, despite his point production rolling on a similar pace to match last years offensive totals. The difference resides in his defensive game, which has jumped from minus-3 at the same point last year, to plus-14 this year. I'm not here to pretend that Keith is having a Norris season, because he isn't. But the improvement to his game could be a precursor in what is to come in the immediate future for the Blackhawks this season, who are 18-1-0 when Keith is a plus player.

Despite his veteran presence on the ice, Keith is still at the ripe age of 28 and his greatest asset--skating ability, has not slowed down. Several games this year Keith has made extraordinary plays to break up odd-man rushes with his speed as well as hustling to defend multiple breakaways without committing a penalty. The positive outlook is Duncan has shown a bit more patience in all areas of the ice along with using his speed properly, rather than the jittery panic he would display at times years ago.

There really is no explanation for the turn around, Keith has averaged 26:33 TOI/G compared to 26:53 TOI/G last year, which is nearly identical. If anything with Brian Campbell gone, it has forced Keith to play in more pressure situations. There is some truth in that statement, I'd even go as far as saying it's a fact that Keith has to face-off against the top quality of competition each and every night. This is proven by compiling the average relative plus-minus of opposing players each shift, weighted by head-to-head ice time. Both Keith and Seabrook remain as 2 of the top 3 candidates on this list in the entire NHL, meaning each and every shift they are facing players with the best plus-minus in the NHL and on each respective team.

In most scenarios, I wouldn't use any of these stats in order to determine how a player is playing, but in this case it clearly makes his plus-minus numbers a lot more impressive. Depending on how he ends the season, perhaps we may be witnessing a fully matured Duncan Keith, more developed than he even was in 2009-2010 when he raised the Cup over his head. Although the offensive numbers are not there to warrant a Norris nomination, he certainly has proven himself as a reliable player for the Blackhawks and someone I would consider a top 5 defenseman in the NHL this season. Along with Brent Seabrook, I still believe this is the best pairing in the entire NHL.

THE LAZY READER

• On pace to match offensive totals last year
  
• Major improvement in plus-minus
  
• The Blackhawks are 18-1-0 when Keith is a plus player
  
• Nearly identical TOI/G as last season
  
• Increased competition with Brian Campbell gone