G80 Game Notes: Managing Rest — and how Coffey Deploys the Oilers’ Defence

There are 26 games remaining in the NHL season. Thirteen teams will play one game before the season ends on Thursday night, 18 teams play twice, and the Edmonton Oilers are the only team with three games in the final four days. It has been an oddly congested end of the season for the Oilers. They had five games in the final seven days and now three remaining games in four days.

— Playing three games in four days happens often during the regular season, but the Oilers’ distribution of those types of games was heavily skewed to later in the year. They didn’t have any three games in four nights in October or November, but it occurred twice in December, once in January and once in February. It happened four times in March and now three times in their final nine games in April.

— No team can change its schedule. It is less than ideal, especially in the days leading up to the playoffs, and I expect Kris Knoblauch to limit the minutes of some of his top-minute eaters. Philip Broberg will join the Oilers for their final two road games in Arizona and Colorado. I expect him to play in both games and likely play close to 20 minutes. I wouldn’t be shocked if Mattias Ekholm gets one night off and Darnell Nurse the other. Troy Stecher could play both as well to give Evan Bouchard a night off.

— Connor McDavid is getting closer to returning. I think there is a decent chance he plays tonight. I could see him playing again in Arizona, but then sit out the final game in Colorado. Of course, it depends on what happens to Vancouver tomorrow vs. Calgary. If the Oilers win tonight and Vancouver loses to Calgary in regulation, then Edmonton still has a chance to finish first. If the Oilers defeat Arizona on Wednesday, in the final game in Coyotes franchise history, then the Oilers would enter the final day of the regular season one point behind Vancouver. The Canucks play in Winnipeg on Thursday, while the Oilers host Colorado. And those games could have home-ice advantage implications for the Jets and Avalanche, if Winnipeg doesn’t pick up a point v. Seattle tomorrow. If they do, then they will finish second in the Central, but if they lose in regulation on Tuesday, then Thursdays games become very important to the Jets and Avalanche.

— We only have four days remaining in the regular season, but none of the playoff matchups have been fully secured. We know Winnipeg will play Colorado, but home ice hasn’t been determined yet. Only three teams, Dallas (1st in CEN), Toronto (3rd in ATL) and Tampa Bay (1st Wildcard in East) know where they will finish. It has been a great regular season, and I can’t recall not knowing any matchups this late in a season. It could make the first round even more unpredictable.

— Paul Coffey has shown a lot of confidence in Vincent Desharnais and Brett Kulak lately. They are still the third pairing in total minutes played, but Coffey has shown he isn’t afraid to play them against the other team’s top lines. I view this as a positive. The coach isn’t just guaranteeing minutes to players. He isn’t going overboard and suddenly altering the total minutes of his pairings, but he doesn’t just shelter his third pair. That being said, I think due to Oilersnation’s Sid’s post about TOI v. Elite, and Elliotte Friedman mentioning it on Saturday’s broadcast, it has led some interesting claims. Mainly that Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci are now the third pair. Actual data will tell you this isn’t accurate. Let’s dig in.

— Here is the allocation of TOI v. Elite (mainly first line players, but some second liners like Leon Draisaitl, for instance) since March 14th. All data courtesy of PuckIQ.com.