How should the Maple Leafs map out their goaltending for 2023-24?

What if I told you the Toronto Maple Leafs have a pretty easy road map to success regarding their goaltending?

Not sold? Stay with me.

There’s been plenty of change for the Leafs in recent weeks with now-former general manager Kyle Dubas leaving town. But regardless of the upheaval, decisions need to be made in short order regarding how the team’s crease will look next season and beyond.

And for once, I think Toronto should be in a good position entering the 2023-24 regular season. Now, truth be told, there is some risk to the plan I’m about to lay out. It involves a relatively green, unproven goaltender and a veteran netminder that is still trying to smooth out wrinkles in his game.

But in my eyes, one thing’s for sure: the ceiling for excellence in the Leafs’ crease is the highest it’s been in quite some time. And I think Toronto – led by newly appointed GM Brad Treliving – needs to get things sewn up sooner rather than later.

The keys? A full-time NHL gig for soon-to-be 25-year-old netminder Joseph Woll. A reasonable contract extension for restricted free agent Ilya Samonsov. And a plan for what to do with the often-injured and perennially frustrating Matt Murray.

Oddly enough, the low-hanging fruit for Toronto is what to do with Woll, the youngest and most inexperienced goaltender in the franchise. The St. Louis-raised netminder is coming off his best professional year to date. 

During the 2022-23 season, Woll parlayed a 16-4-1 record and .927 save percentage with the AHL’s Toronto Marlies into an extended look with the Maple Leafs after Matt Murray was lost to injury. And did he ever respond? Woll’s .927 save percentage and 6-1-0 record with the NHL club were eye-catching. And then he got a taste of action in the Stanley Cup playoffs, where he performed admirably in three games – never losing in regulation despite authoring a 1-0-2 record.

Going into the 2023-24 season, Woll has a career 10-2-2 record in the NHL to go with a .922 save percentage. And with his 2023 AHL All-Star selection and exemplary play over the past few seasons, Woll doesn’t have anything left to prove in the minors.

But it’s not just the stout body of work that has Woll primed to make the full-time jump to the NHL. It’s also his contract. Woll is entering the second year of a three-year pact. Which happens to be a one-way deal in the final two years.

If the Maple Leafs want to send Woll to the Marlies next season, he’d have to clear waivers. To me, that’s a non-starter. Woll would be claimed instantly. At 25 years old and with the upside he’s shown, Woll would be a steal for any other NHL team if acquired via waivers. 

So long story short, pencil Woll into Toronto’s lineup. Because first off, I don’t think the Leafs have a choice. But secondly, Woll’s minuscule cap hit is a huge bonus for the club. He’s set to earn just $775k in each of the next two seasons. For a team as cap-strapped as Toronto, Woll’s tiny cap hit is incredibly valuable.

I think Woll has the potential to be a game-changer in the NHL. Not long ago he was on a very similar career path as current Dallas Stars netminder Jake Oettinger – his former junior teammate at the U.S. National Team Development Program. But Woll had a tough rookie year in the AHL. Then injuries and COVID-altered seasons in the minors slowed his progression even further.

But he was able to bounce back: the 2022-23 season was the real Joseph Woll. The same goaltender Toronto selected 62nd overall in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft, then plucked out of Boston College after his junior year of college. Woll doesn’t project as just another NHL goaltender. He has the potential to be a mainstay No. 1 for the Leafs. And I think he’d be great in a tandem role as his game continues to grow at the NHL level.

The next order of business for Toronto is securing a mid-range deal for Samsonov that keeps him in Toronto for the next couple of seasons without breaking the bank. But I’m not sure negotiations will be easy for Treliving. Four years into his NHL career, Samonov has 131 regular-season games under his belt. And the Russian-born netminder has a career .908 save percentage along with 79 wins to his credit.

But it’s what Samsonov accomplished during the 2022-23 season that makes his value higher than ever. He posted a .919 save percentage and showed he could play No. 1 minutes for the Leafs. 

A 26-year-old goaltender with that resume doesn’t come cheap. Or without some term on the contract. As an RFA, Samsonov has some leverage. He’s due a $1.8M qualifying offer from Toronto. But Samonov is eligible for arbitration, and it’ll require a significant raise to retain his services on a multi-year deal. A proven No. 1 goaltender today costs at least $4M: that would be a reasonable figure given Samsonov’s track record. And I think the Leafs will find a similar number to be manageable.

The question, at least for me, is the term. If I’m Treliving, I don’t want to go beyond three years. Samsonov played well for Toronto this past season. I think head coach Sheldon Keefe trusts him. But his game is still a work in progress. Consistency has been a battle for Samsonov. He has yet to develop the technical details needed to provide predictable goaltending.

I like what Samsonov has done in Toronto. He outplayed his goalie partner, Matt Murray, for most of the season. And I think he should be rewarded for it. But Samsonov also has to be realistic. The team that drafted him 22nd overall in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft – the Washington Capitals – already gave up on Samsonov after he couldn’t grab the starting gig. And as an RFA, he could be stuck playing for just $1.8M on a one-year contract if he overplays his hand with Toronto.

Samsonov’s new deal has to work for both sides. He needs to get paid like a No.1, and the Leafs need flexibility. Toronto cannot afford to get tied up long-term with Samsonov, especially knowing Woll has the potential to overtake him on the depth chart. It’s up to Treliving to find the solution.

I like the combination of Woll and Samsonov, and I think the tandem is capable of carrying the Leafs as far as the team’s defense will allow. But there’s still a missing piece of Toronto’s goaltending puzzle. And that’s Matt Murray.

In his first year with the Leafs, Murray posted a 14-8-2 record. But his game fell off drastically in the second half of the 2022-23 season. The two-time Stanley Cup Champion had a .926 save percentage through 10 games. But Murray’s .884 in his final 16 appearances was a major disappointment. And as has often been the case during his career, the Leafs netminder wasn’t available due to injury for a large chunk of the season.

With one year remaining on Murray’s contract at a cap hit of just under $4.7M, it doesn’t make any sense for Treliving to keep him on the Leafs roster. Murray hasn’t posted a save percentage above .906 since 2019 – four full NHL seasons ago. And he simply cannot be trusted to remain healthy.

Operating off the assumption that long-term injured reserve isn’t an option for Murray – which it still might be – the easiest route for Treliving would be to stash Murray in the AHL with the Marlies. But that move would only provide a savings of $1.125M against the cap. Murray’s contract would still eat up just over $3.5M toward the Leafs’ maximum cap total. That’s not ideal. And I don’t see any NHL team claiming him off waivers.

So unless Murray isn’t able to play next season, the stark reality is that Treliving will likely have to pay for his contract to go away. Maybe he’ll use one of the four fifth-round picks Toronto has between the 2024 and 2025 NHL Entry Drafts. Or perhaps there’s another solution. I mean, the Arizona Coyotes will need to find players from somewhere. And they’ve never been afraid to go dumpster diving to stockpile draft picks.

Regardless, the Murray experiment has to end in Toronto. And I think Treliving would be wise to bet on a tandem of Woll and Samsonov. Not only are both goaltenders riding a positive wave of momentum from last season, but their combined cap hit would be manageable. And they’re both in-house options.

For me, there’s no reason for Treliving to trade for a goalie like Connor Hellebuyck or John Gibson. Giving up assets to obtain one year of Hellebuyck’s service doesn’t make sense. Yeah, the Winnipeg netminder’s $6M cap hit is manageable. But he’s gone after the 2023-24 season when he becomes too expensive for Toronto as an unrestricted free agent. And Gibson would be yet another expensive reclamation project.

The Maple Leafs already have what they need in goal for the 2023-24 season. The franchise just needs to iron out the details. Look for Woll and Samsonov to battle it out. And possibly for years to come.