Looking at Kaapo Kakko's restricted free agency

In what would prove to be their final game of the season last night, a 2-1 loss at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals, the New York Rangers made the surprising choice to list forward Kaapo Kakko as a healthy scratch in favor of Dryden Hunt. It would be fair to say Kakko, the second overall pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, has not played up to projections so far in his young career, however given the team’s choice to scratch forward Ryan Reaves and the apparent severity of Ryan Strome’s injury, along with the developing chemistry between Kakko and linemates Alexis Lafreniere and Filip Chytil, seeing Kakko sit was a surprise to say the least.

The New York Post’s Larry Brooks, who covers the Rangers, wrote this morning examining an interesting parallel between Kakko and another Finnish forward, Jesperi Kotkaniemi (link). Brooks looks at the similarities between the two players from being drafted, the hype around them, and their young careers, Kakko’s with the Rangers, Kotkaniemi’s with the Montreal Canadiens. Brooks also addresses Kotkaniemi’s healthy scratch in Games Four and Five of last year’s Stanley Cup Final in comparison to Kakko’s healthy scratch last night.

At the conclusion of Montreal’s season, Kotkaniemi would hit the RFA market, where he would sign a one-year, $6.1M offer-sheet with the Carolina Hurricanes which Montreal declined to match, ultimately costing the Hurricanes a first and third round draft pick. After the two healthy scratches in the Cup Final, it didn’t appear that the relationship between Kotkaniemi and the Canadiens was irreparable, however Kotkaniemi was quick to sign the offer sheet, one that Montreal was very unlikely to match. As Brooks points out in his article, Kakko could feel a similar sentiment towards the Rangers.

None of this is a given of course, but if Kakko was interested in a change of organization, choosing to shop his talents when free agency opens on July 13th, the Rangers would be put in an awkward position if Kakko were to be offered a deal like Kotkaniemi. The Rangers have just under $13.5M in available cap space this offseason, needing to re-sign the likes of Strome, Andrew Copp, and Frank Vatrano, amongst others. Brooks suggests a two-year bridge deal worth $2M to $2.5M per season is appropriate for Kakko this offseason, but if he were to get an offer in the range of $4.2M to $6.3M per season on the open-market, that would net the Rangers only the same first and third round draft picks Montreal received for Kotkaniemi.

Circling back, the Rangers could afford to match that number, but they have K’Andre Miller and Lafreniere as expiring RFAs next offseason, both of whom would be due significant raises over their ELC contracts. If the Rangers were put in this position, the one Montreal faced last offseason, they may be forced to take the draft picks.

All of this to say, with the Rangers offseason less than a day old at publishing, things are unknown and the ultimate reason for Kakko’s scratch remains a mystery, and any hurt feelings could be a moot point. Interestingly, when ESPN’s Emily Kaplan asked Rangers head coach  Gerard Gallant to elaborate on why he scratched Kakko, Gallant refused to give an answer. Kakko’s future is his own, and to an extent the Rangers’ too, but the parallel to Kotkaniemi’s situation, in recency, in on-ice performance, in being healthy scratched for the team’s biggest game of the season, and now contractually, is incredibly interesting and something to keep an eye on.