New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals: 2024 Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick

New York Rangers: 1st in Metropolitan Division, 114 points

Washington Capitals: 2nd Eastern Conference Wild Card, 92 points

Schedule (ET)

Game 1: Sunday, April 21, 3:00 p.m. ET in New York

Full schedule to be announced.

The Skinny

From 2009 to 2015, the New York Rangers and Washington Capitals seemingly had a standing date in the postseason, when Henrik Lundqvist and the Rangers claimed a trifecta of Game 7 victories over Alexander Ovechkin and Washington. The bad blood between the sides far predates the infamous 2021 incident when Tom Wilson roughed up Artemi Panarin.

Though the Broadway Blueshirts hate the Capitals and just about every other team in the American Northeast, their aspirations in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs go beyond any grudge match. 

In 1994, New York won the Presidents’ Trophy with an old adversary from the Flyers behind their bench. They’ve replicated those circumstances 30 years later. Can they achieve the same magical ending? Detractors point to the Rangers’ unimpressive +1 5-on-5 goal differential, but their fans think good fortune only supports their “team of destiny” narrative.

If destiny is on anyone’s side heading into the postseason, it might be the Capitals; their path to playoff hockey is one of the most bizarre in recent memory. 

Washington, just a point adrift of the Wild Card after 43 games, won only 42 points from their remaining contests. Philadelphia and Detroit collapsed even harder, though, and placed the Capitals in the pole position of a four-way race that the Pittsburgh Penguins had also joined ahead of game 82. The Flyers, unwittingly eliminated by a late Red Wings goal in a game happening simultaneously, pulled their goalie, T.J. Oshie scored into their empty net, and the Capitals waltzed into the first round with a -37(!) goal differential. The train wreck that was the race for the eighth seed was entertaining until the end, but for a matchup this tough, was it all for naught?

Head to Head

NY Rangers: 2-2-0
Washington 2-2-0

The Rangers owned the ‘Metro’ all season with an 18-9 division record. Their worst mark against a division opponent was 2-2 against the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets and their first-round opponent, the Capitals.

All four matchups took place over 36 days, and though the Rangers got to Darcy Kuemper in a 5-1 drubbing on Dec. 27, they struggled to solve Washington’s presumptive Game 1 starter Charlie Lindgren (2-1, 1.35 GAA, .955 SV% against NYR) in three tries. 

It’s not as though the Capitals held on for dear life in front of Lindgren, either; they out-chanced New York 90-79 during the season series.

Top Five Scorers

NY Rangers

Artemi Panarin, 120 points
Vincent Trocheck, 77 points
Chris Kreider, 75 points
Adam Fox, 73 points
Mika Zibanejad, 72 points

Washington

Dylan Strome, 67 points
Alex Ovechkin, 65 points
John Carlson, 52 points
Tom Wilson, 35 points
Connor McMichael, 33 points

X-Factor

Remember that +1 goal margin for the Rangers at 5-on-5? It has not mattered so far this season because of New York’s 65 power-play goals, good for fourth in the league. The Rangers have four players (Kreider, Panarin, Trocheck, Zibanejad) with more than 10 power-play tallies, and of the group, only Artemi Panarin does significantly more damage at even strength (38 goals). If New York goes up a man, they will make the Capitals pay.

If the Caps can’t neutralize the Rangers’ lethal power play on the kill (18th in PK%), they have to by staying out of the box. Get your Tom Wilson jokes out of the way now. Yes, Wilson is the most penalized player in the league this season, but if he can clean up his act, the Capitals have a real chance of forcing New York to beat them the old-fashioned way; the Caps the seventh-least penalized team in the NHL, and their divisive alternate captain alone accounts for nearly 17% of calls against them.

The Capitals aren’t exactly a juggernaut at 5-on-5 (47.37% of expected goals), but despite Panarin and linemate Alexis Lafreniere’s (26 even-strength goals) best efforts, neither are the Rangers (49.04%). If Washington is to have a chance at pulling off the upset, they need to force the likes of Kreider and Zibanejad to beat them at even strength. Otherwise, this series is a nonstarter.

Offense

Since Panarin joined forces with Lafreniere and Trocheck, he has been better than ever, with career-highs in goals (49) and points (120). 

Trocheck, one of three Rangers with 50+ helpers, is defensively responsible enough to mitigate some overambitious giveaways from the ‘Bread Man.’ Lafreniere, somehow still just 22, is all too happy to play garbage man for his talented linemates; the burgeoning power forward’s 26 even-strength tallies are tied for 14th in the NHL, ahead of the likes of Sam Reinhart and Brady Tkachuk.

For Zibanejad and Kreider, constants on both special teams, the even-strength offense hasn’t been as inspiring. More than 46% of their combined 65 goals (39 for Kreider, 26 for Zibanejad) have come with a man advantage, but it’s hard to knock players when the puck’s going in the net. As a duo, their 51.53% share of high-danger chances is near the top of a Rangers’ team that does not excel at dominating possession, so their defensive impact remains stellar. The veterans have cycled through several first-line right wing replacements since Blake Wheeler went down for the season, finally settling on Jack Roslovic (8P in 19GP for NYR) after the trade deadline. 

It’s no surprise that Adam Fox locked up with a third consecutive 70-point season from the blueline, but his career-best goal-scoring (17) and point-per-game pace (73P in 72GP) have gone strangely overlooked. 

For Washington, the story on offense centers around Ovechkin, the best player in franchise history and perhaps the greatest sniper in league history. Ovechkin’s bionic efficiency in his mid-to-late 30s (48.77G per 82 games from 2020-2023) meant it was somehow a surprise when, at 38, he finally hit the wall. That was the narrative, at least, before he rattled off 22 goals and 34 points in 35 games after the All-Star break. The Great 8 is back, and the Capitals will need him to be by the looks of the rest of this group.

‘Ovi’ and longtime lieutenant Oshie (25P in 52GP) flank young center Connor McMichael (18 G) on a thrown-together first line that is holding its own on the scoresheet if not the metrics (45.54% of scoring chances). They’ll have to do because the new second line of Wilson, top scorer Dylan Strome (career-high 27 G, 67 P), and towering 23-year-old Aliaksei Protas has crushed it down the stretch, using size and strength to dictate more than 70% of high-danger chances in recent weeks. If Wilson can find his finishing touch (his shooting percentage is down 5% from last season), that possession will turn into crucial goals for the league’s fifth-worst scoring offense.

Scoring depth took a big hit at the trade deadline when Anthony Mantha and Evgeny Kuznetsov joined the Vegas Golden Knights and Carolina Hurricanes, respectively, but John Carlson remains a menacing presence on the blueline; he just wrapped up his sixth 50-point season and eighth 10-goal effort and scored 21 points over the last 26 games to help drag Washington into the postseason. 

Max Pacioretty, another grizzled vet, isn’t what he once was (23P in 47GP), but his 4.2% conversion rate is preposterously unlucky. Now would be the right time to thaw out; he has five separate five-goal postseasons.

Defense

Fox is the main man on the Rangers’ blueline, and his ability to actively defend sets him apart from many modern offensive blueliners. Unsurprisingly, he (+21) and partner Ryan Lindgren (+22) have the club’s best two ratings; Lindgren’s metrics as an average puck-handler on a middle-of-the-pack possession team do not scream “top pair,” but his toughness and heart will be invaluable in a playoff environment.

Beyond the top pair, there are questions about whether the Rangers’ D-corps will stand up to playoff competition, even when it’s as seemingly toothless as Washington has been for most of the season. The only other Rangers’ defenseman with a positive share of high-danger chances and expected goals is bottom-pair puck mover Erik Gustafsson.

The team is 12-2 when Braden Schneider partners with K’Andre Miller on the second pair instead of captain Jacob Trouba. Miller has every tool a top-two, let alone top-four, defenseman in the NHL could ask for, but giveaways and lapses in concentration have kept him from reaching those levels. Coach Peter Laviolette wants the duo to be his shutdown pairing, but between Trouba’s skating and Miller’s decision-making, they more often resemble a ticking time bomb. Gustafsson’s speed and Schneider’s level head help mitigate their respective issues. Is it time to make Trouba’s bottom-pair role permanent?

The Rangers’ cast of defensively conscious bottom-six forwards like Jimmy Vesey and Barclay Goodrow and two-way All-Stars Trocheck, Kreider, and Zibanejad will reinforce a blueline that could become an issue.

For the Capitals, defense became a matter of finding six warm bodies who could hold a stick down the stretch. Washington traded Joel Edmundson to the Maple Leafs, and Rasmus Sandin and Nick Jensen went down injured just in time for the furious finish to the season. There’s a chance Washington is whole in time for Game 1, and they make up for a lack of talent with grit and discipline, especially on the blueline.

Martin Fehervary has settled in as Carlson’s partner in recent seasons, and the two comfortably control the lion’s share of high-danger chances (52.77%) while lugging massive minutes; Carlson’s 25:54 minutes of average ice time overtook Drew Doughty for the league lead by the end of the regular season. Fehervary (his 188 lead hits lead Washington D-men) is defensively sound enough to cover Carlson’s deficiencies in a shutdown role, and a top pair that does more than survive is integral for a playoff underdog.

Sandin is a talented young puck mover who has partnered with several veterans throughout the year, and coach Spencer Carbery settled on pairing him with Jensen before their respective injuries. Like the Ovechkin line, the scoring (16-17) has been more respectable than some rough chance metrics. 

Trevor van Riemsdyk has been invaluable in a utility role and spent more than 100 minutes beside five different partners this season while leading Washington defensemen in control over high-danger chances (52.32%). Among the forwards, Protas and veteran Nic Dowd have been important penalty killers.

Goaltending

Rangers’ goalie Igor Shesterkin had an up-and-down season and has struggled for consistency since winning the Vezina Trophy and even getting 24 first-place votes as the MVP in 2022. That 36 wins and a .912 SV% is a frustrating year for ‘Shesty’ highlights his otherworldly talent. When he’s switched on mentally, he is one of the very best goaltenders in the world. 17-5-1 with a 2.20 GAA and .929 SV% since Feb. 1, Shesterkin has left a legitimate midseason challenge from backup Jonathan Quick (18-6-2, .911 SV%) in the rearview. Now, Shesterkin’s challenge is maintaining this standard for another 16 wins.

Capitals’ netminder Lindgren, now 30, had 54 NHL starts under his belt before the season but unseated struggling veteran Kuemper to lead Washington to the playoffs with a near-identical save percentage (.911) as his Rangers’ counterpart. You still wouldn’t call this matchup a wash (Shesterkin can reach a level Lindgren cannot), but the St. Cloud State alumnus has been one of the surprises of the season. Can he play spoiler for the high-powered New York attack?

Injuries

Wheeler’s season-ending lower-body injury took a bite out of the Rangers’ scoring depth, but that was two months ago, and they’ve had time to readjust. The biggest injury news out of New York is that Filip Chytil, the young third-line center who missed all but 10 games due to concussion, is practising again. They won’t rush him given his history of head injuries, but his return would be a massive morale boost for this powerhouse team. It would also go a long way toward addressing that depth-scoring issue.

For the Caps, Sandin (upper body) and Jensen (head) are in play to return for Game 1, but neither is a certainty. Ethan Bear left the team to enter the player assistance program weeks ago, and Nicklas Backstrom is semi-retired due to chronic hip issues. 

Intangibles

Under the microscope of the New York media and with their four great forwards on the wrong side of 30, this Rangers team is under pressure to destroy the Capitals definitively. Anything less, and the team is a fraud, Trouba is overpaid, Zibanejad is a power-play merchant, etc., etc., etc. Laviolette has plenty of playoff success and knows how to rally a locker room, but keeping outside noise on the outside is easier said than done in the age of social media.

The Capitals know they’re expected to roll over in what has all the makings of a mismatch. That will only give them extra motivation; they have spent all season proving people wrong. Given the Rangers’ sloppy underlying numbers, could this become the upset of the year? Stranger things have happened, but not many.

Series Prediction

The Capitals aren’t as bad as you think, and the Rangers might not be as good. That said, a team doesn’t fall face first into 55 wins and 114 points. Washington is OK at a great many things, but there isn’t one aspect of the game where they can press their advantage over the highly favored first seed. They’ll keep it close for four games, but they won’t win one.

Rangers in four games.