NHL best bets: Panthers vs. Bruins Game 4 odds, pick, prediction for 5/12

Panthers vs. Bruins Odds

Sunday, May 12, 6:30 p.m. ET, TBS & truTV

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Florida Panthers

Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman was nearly unbeatable during the first round against Toronto and the opening contest of the current series versus Florida, but the Panthers completely solved him over their past two contests, which has led to them outscoring Boston 12-3 over those two victories.

Aleksander Barkov has been leading the charge, providing an impressive two goals and six points over his past two contests, which brings him up to four markers and 12 points across eight playoff outings this year.

Defenseman Brandon Montour hasn't been far behind. Despite a somewhat disappointing 2023-24 regular season from an offensive perspective – he dropped from 73 points in 80 contests in 2022-23 to 33 points in 66 games this campaign – the 30-year-old has come alive when it counts the most, collecting two goals and five points over his past two outings.

Florida's recent success has gone beyond just a couple strong performances, though. Nine different Panthers have found the back of the net during their past two wins, making this a true team effort. It's not simply a matter of Swayman suddenly cooling off either.

While he certainly shouldn't expect blame entirely, the Panthers bested Boston 4.47-1.19 in terms of Expected Goals in Game 2 and had a 4.07-2.12 edge in Game 3. In other words, Florida truly did dominate those games and deserved those wins. It also means that unless Boston as a collective performs better, the Bruins switching goalies to Linus Ullmark might not be enough to slow Florida.

If there's any glimmer of hope here for the Bruins, it's that Sergei Bobrovsky hasn't been anything special in this series with his .883 save percentage. Bobrovsky is certainly capable of stepping up — after all, he's a Vezina Trophy finalist after posting a 36-17-4 record, 2.37 GAA and .915 save percentage in 58 regular-season contests — but he's been inconsistent in the playoffs, so perhaps if Boston's offense can start to dial up the pressure, the 35-year-old netminder will falter.

Boston Bruins

Is Boston capable of putting that kind of pressure on Florida? The Bruins managed just 32 shots over its last two contests, and their situation got worse when Brad Marchand sustained an upper-body injury due to a controversial incident with Sam Bennett in Game 3.

Marchand has three goals and a team-leading 10 points in 10 playoff appearances this year, so if he's not available tonight, then it would be a huge blow for a team already struggling to get anything going offensively.

If the Bruins are to move forward, they need others to step up, especially David Pastrnak. He's been limited to two assists in three second-round games and has seven points (three goals) across 10 postseason outings this year. Those aren't bad numbers, but it isn't quite enough for a star who recorded 47 goals and 110 points in 82 regular-season appearances in 2023-24.

Boston also needs to provide more help to whichever goaltender gets the start. As noted, above, the Bruins didn't look great in terms of xGA over the previous two clashes, and even in Game 1, the Bruins had just a narrow edge in expected goals (3.31 to 3.3), so at no point in this series have they truly been dominant even if the final score in the opener was 5-1 for the Bruins.

Boston showed in the regular season and first round that the squad is capable of better than this, but the Bruins might not be able to rise to that level at this stage. This will be their 11th playoff contest in 23 days, and that grind might explain their diminished performance, especially compared to Florida, which had the luxury of a week's rest between series after dispatching Tampa Bay in five games.

Panthers vs. Bruins

Betting Pick & Prediction

After two convincing wins, Florida is understandably the oddsmakers' favorite for Game 4 even with the contest being played in Boston.

With Boston's recent performance and Marchand's possible absence, I find it hard to have faith in the Bruins, especially against a club at Florida's level.

Consequently, I believe the Panthers are a solid selection in Sunday's matchup on the puck line.

Pick: Panthers -1.5 (+180 at bet365 | Play Down to +165)