NHL best bets: Panthers vs. Bruins Game 6 odds, pick, prediction for Fri. 5/17

Panthers vs. Bruins Odds

Friday, May 17, 7 p.m. ET, TNT & truTV

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Florida Panthers

The Panthers have been a dominant force offensively throughout the season and into the playoffs. They ranked second in Corsi % during the regular season and have maintained that position in the playoffs, indicating consistent puck possession and shot generation.

The Panthers' expected goals percentage (xG%) also ranked second during the regular season, and they remain the best team in the playoffs, showcasing their ability to create high-quality scoring chances. They were second in expected goals for (xGF) during the regular season and now rank fourth in the playoffs, underscoring their offensive depth.

High-danger chances have been a hallmark of their game, ranking second in the regular season and third in the playoffs.

Furthermore, Florida's power play has been effective, ranking seventh in the regular season and fourth in the playoffs with nine power-play goals. The Panthers have scored six of those goals on the man advantage as Boston has given Florida an incredible 26 opportunities on the power play this series. If the Bruins continue to play shorthanded this game like the rest of the series, their Stanley Cup aspirations will likely end tonight.

Defensively, the Panthers have tightened up significantly in the playoffs. They ranked fifth in expected goals against (xGA) during the regular season and have improved to the best team in the playoffs, demonstrating a robust defensive performance. Their ability to limit high-danger chances against has been outstanding, moving from 11th in the regular season to first in the playoffs.

Florida has also excelled in penalty killing, improving from 16th in the regular season to third in the playoffs. The Panthers' discipline has improved, moving from second-most penalty minutes in the regular season to second-fewest in the playoffs. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has been reliable, ranking 11th in save percentage during the regular season and sixth among starting goalies with a minimum of four starts in the playoffs.

Boston Bruins

The Bruins have shown resilience in the playoffs despite a less dominant regular season.

They ranked 24th in Corsi % during the regular season and remain the second-worst team in the playoffs. Their xG% was 18th during the regular season and has remained 10th out of 16 teams in the playoffs. Boston was middle of the pack at 16th in xGF in the regular season but has jumped slightly to sixth in the playoffs, indicating an ability to generate and convert scoring opportunities under playoff pressure.

High-danger chances have remained somewhat consistent for the Bruins, ranking eighth in the regular season but only seventh in the playoffs. Their power play has been effective, moving from 15th in the regular season to sixth in the playoffs, scoring seven power-play goals.

Defensively, the Bruins have faced challenges. They ranked 18th in xGA during the regular season and have fallen to last among playoff teams. Their management of high-danger chances against has also been problematic, dropping from 20th in the regular season to last in the playoffs.

Penalty killing has been a struggle, with the Bruins allowing the third most penalty-kill goals out of the eight teams left in round two of the playoffs after ranking 12th in the regular season. Boston has also been undisciplined while accumulating the most penalty minutes in the postseason.

Despite these struggles, starting goaltender Jeremy Swayman has been a standout performer, ranking second in GAA and first in both goals saved above expected and save % above expected among playoff goalies with a minimum of four starts.

Panthers vs. Bruins

Betting Pick & Prediction

Considering the statistical insights and current dynamics, the recommended bet is the Panthers moneyline at -142 odds at DraftKings.

Here’s why:

1. Offensive and Defensive Balance: The Panthers have shown a balanced strength in both offensive and defensive metrics, maintaining high rankings in key areas like Corsi %, xG%, and limiting high-danger chances.
2. Goaltending Edge: While Swayman has been excellent, Bobrovsky’s consistency and the Panthers' improved defensive discipline make them a formidable opponent.

The Panthers’ overall performance, combined with their ability to control the game and capitalize on power-play opportunities, gives them the edge.

Betting on the Panthers acknowledges their momentum and the statistical advantages they hold, making it a strategic choice for Game 6.

Pick: Panthers (-142 at DraftKings)