NHL bets: A ladder and an under for Monday 4/1

We get a fresh week of NHL betting started and hope to fare better than we did the week prior. It's a pretty loaded slate with some big games, charting our prop path for us. I'm opting to ladder a man on fire and go a bit off the wall with a saves under that is sure to induce a sweat. Good luck tonight!

Laddering Auston Matthews

1u: 5+ shots (-125 FanDuel)
.5u: 6+ shots (+150 FD)
.5u: 7+ shots (+290 FD)

Everything came up Auston Matthews this morning as I did my rounds on the night's slate, and that was before I even dug into how he's been performing lately.

I've got Toronto pegged for 32+ shots this evening, with a bump to their power play shooters (Florida is allowing 4.3 power play opportunities per game on the road over the last month), and the Leafs centers, as that is the position the Panthers have been most generous towards.

Matthews checks both those boxes, and he became a guy I had to ladder once I saw what he's been doing recently.

He has seven, nine, 10 and five shots in his past four games. He's averaging 6.5 shots per game in his past six at home. He has 5+ in six straight home games against Florida and 6+ shots in four straight home games against them.

That's enough for me to ride the hot-hand here.

1u: Samuel Ersson under 24.5 saves (-125 ESPN/DK)

Hope you like a sweat, because this is the type of sadistic bet that will surely get that going later this evening in Philly. This is a low number, but I think it should be even lower, so I'm pouncing.

I'm expecting a tight, defensive-focused game between two teams fighting for that final wild-card spot in the East, which should lend itself to more blocked shots than we normally see.

The Flyers are allowing only 24.2 shots per game at home over the past month and a half, and the Isles are averaging just 28 shots game on the road in that stretch. New York has failed to surpass 25+ shots in five of the last six meetings against Philadelphia.

Ersson is under this number in four straight, with a high of 21 saves. At home, he is under in 65% of his games this year, averaging just 20.2 per game. Everything I'm seeing says bet the under, and I'm going to go ahead and listen to my trusty numbers.