Predicting the New York Islanders 2024 Offseason

The price for Lundell is hard to gauge. His age and previous performances leave him with high upside, but he has struggled offensively over the previous two seasons. His rookie season saw him score 18 goals and 44 points in just 65 games, but he has put up just 25 goals and 68 points in his previous 151 games. However, he finished each of his three NHL seasons around the 17 expected goals mark, according to Moneypuck. His point totals are also a result of playing around 15 minutes per game throughout his career. In an elevated role in the Islanders’ top six, he could surely hit the 20-goal mark with ease if given the opportunities Anders Lee has had on that top line in recent seasons.

Lundell’s value may not be equal to a first-round pick and more; the Panthers’ likely desire to keep Lundell would raise his value to that first-round pick. At the end of the day, if the Panthers do not want to move Lundell, the Islanders could shift their focus to a different young forward.

Signing Contract Extensions

After the draft, the Islanders will make a few contract extensions. The first will be bringing back Cal Clutterbuck on a one-year, $800,000 contract. Mike Reilly will also extend on a two-year, $1.25 million AAV contract. Matt Martin and Robert Borrutzzo will retire, and Sebastian Aho will hit the free-agent market.

For RFAs, Kyle MacLean will sign for two years at $950,000 AAV, Simon Holmstrom will sign for two years at $1.2 million, Ruslan Iskhakov for two years at $875,000 and Dennis Cholowski for two years at $800,000.

Free Agency Begins

As free agency begins, the Islanders’ current roster sits at an $88,075,000 cap hit with 13 forwards, seven defensemen, and two goaltenders on the NHL roster. From here, Lamoriello will look to shed cap, and it will be at the expense of Jean-Gabriel Pageau. The Seattle Kraken will be on the phone and send RFA Kailer Yamamoto to the Islanders in exchange for Pageau, prospect Isaiah George, and the Islanders 2025 third-round pick.

Adding Pageau will help Seattle’s forward core by adding an experienced NHL veteran who is strong in the faceoff circle. Considering Pageau has finished each of the past five seasons with a faceoff win percentage greater than 55%, he will be a tremendous help to the Kraken who finished last season with a 47.4 faceoff win percentage, the eighth-lowest for any team in the NHL, according to Moneypuck.

After this trade, the Islanders will sign Yamamoto to a one-year, $1.25 million contract. This will leave the roster with just over $3 million in projected cap space which they will use to address the gap on the third line. This will be solved by signing former New York Ranger Jack Roslovic. He had an underwhelming 2023-24 season split between the Rangers and Columbus Blue Jackets, but he should bounce back in a consistent role on the Islanders’ third line. From here, the roster is pretty set in stone.

Islanders’ Roster Out of the Preseason

Following the offseason, the Islanders roster is projected to have an $86.55 million cap hit with one scratched forward and one scratched defenseman. After an underwhelming 2023-24 season, Hudson Fasching will not make the Islanders roster out of camp and be sent down to the Bridgeport Islanders. As well, rookie Alex Jefferies will begin the season in Bridgeport.

The Islanders may be giving up a key faceoff taker in Pageau, but they will still be sporting a roster with seven centers. The lines will be similar to the 2023-24 season but contain more offensive upside.

Anton Lundell – Bo Horvat – Mat Barzal

Anders Lee – Brock Nelson – Kyle Palmieri

Pierre Engvall – Jack Roslovic – Kailer Yamamoto

Kyle MacLean – Casey Cizikas – Simon Holmstrom

Extra: Cal Clutterbuck

The defense is a bit trickier to predict. Given the fact the team has five of next season’s defensemen all but set in stone, the only hole to fill is the third pairing, left defenseman. Given Mike Reilly’s phenomenal play as an Islander, he should be a priority to bring back. This works very well for Scott Mayfield whose defensive partner has been a revolving door in recent seasons.

According to Moneypuck’s expected goals percentage model, Mayfield’s best defensive partner from last season was Reilly, with the two possessing a 48.7 expected goals percentage. While this is not an ideal number, a fully healthy Mayfield and some chemistry in training camp would go a long way for the pairing. In addition to the defense, the goaltending tandem is set in stone, with Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov both expected to return next season. With all of this said, the blue line and goaltending tandem should look something like this:

Alexander Romanov – Noah Dobson

Adam Pelech – Ryan Pulock

Mike Reilly – Scott Mayfield

Extra: Samuel Bolduc

Ilya Sorokin

Semyon Varlamov

Recap

Trying to predict an entire offseason of moves is difficult, but let’s recap the entirety of the decisions. Lamoriello has shown he is willing to dish out a first-round pick if it means helping the team. In acquiring Lundell he adds a versatile forward who is left-handed and young. Lundell’s defensive abilities will also bode well with Roy and his system that relies on each forward to contribute on both ends of the ice.

Lamoriello has shied away from moving core players unless he is forced to. Given the majority of the roster’s contracts containing no-trade clauses and the team’s disappointing end to the 2023-24 season, he will likely feel comfortable moving a core player to free up the cap to help the team elsewhere.

From here, Lamoriello addresses the issue of scoring in the bottom six while going after an affordable forward for the third line. The Islanders had a bottom-five third line in the NHL this past season, so swapping out two of the players makes sense, especially since Pierre Engvall is signed long-term and is not going to be traded. Lamoriello realizes he can give up Pageau’s faceoff ability since the lineup will still have seven centers.

Staying in the bottom six, Lou brings back Kyle MacLean and Simon Holmstrom who both showcased the ability to play anywhere in the lineup and score. Respected veteran Casey Cizikas returns as the fourth-line center, attempting to bring the Islanders back to their former glory of having one of the league’s best fourth lines. All of these moves are consistent with Lamoriello’s comments on believing in this current group as the only major decision he makes is trading away Pageau.