When stocks get overvalued, the market “corrects” itself moving the numbers to the true value. Holders of that stock freak out in the short term, because their assets diminish, quite quickly, and panic can set in.
The overvalued housing market ran so hot that its correction will still take many more years to add back the true value of the property. Houses that only should have held a value of x dollars, typically held 2x or even 3x during the run-up.
The Coyotes now are working the same way.
When the Coyotes went to overtime last season, we became accustomed to having them collect that extra point. In fact, when the overtime session failed to decide the winner, the shootout decided many of the contests in the Coyotes’ favor.
Instead of looking at the shootout as a 50/50 proposition, we figured with Ilya Bryzgalov in the net, it’s a lock. At certain points during the season, when the Coyotes went to overtime, I sometimes thought that the team played for the shootout knowing that their elite goalie will stop whatever he got to see.
The head coach of the team from the midwestern state East of Wisconsin opined at the time that the Coyotes were living a charmed life, insinuating that they were a lucky bunch.
At the time, I despised the comment because it came from him, but he was right. The Coyotes won more than their fair share in the shootout.
But wait, you might be asking yourself, if PB is going to use statistics and probability, aren’t the events mutually exclusive, meaning that each event is independent of the event that precedes it?
Well, sure, that’s what our algebra and statistics classes tell us. However, I’m looking at this thing with a long-run perspective in mind. Last season we won more than we should have in the overtime session, especially in the shootout. Now, we aren’t making it that far.
We’re regressing to the mean.
Because really, hockey games should not need the overtime period on a regular basis to decide hockey games. The contests should be concluded without that extra five minutes, because during that intense session, anything can happen.
Part of this concept considers the team’s personnel. This team is virtually the same team as last year, but still is missing key components that left for greener pastures. The system is the same, but the players have failed to convert four-on-four. Instead of thinking the OT is ours, we now have to wait on pins and needles knowing that there is a chance for the opposition to score that untimely goal to close out the game and leave us feeling unsatisfied.
For 50 minutes last night against the Sabres, the Coyotes played like a team possessed, but Ryan Miller stood on his head to enable his team to win. They certainly deserved a better fate. But with that extra five minutes the Sabres got, they were able to push in a goal based on one mistake of the blueline giving the Sabres just a little bit of extra space. Labarbera couldn’t stop that shot, and it was game over.
And this story has been a repetitive one of late which indicates the trend of “moving downward” when in actuality, it’s correcting itself.
Hopefully, this trend will stop and the Coyotes can close out games without needing the extra frame (or the skills competition at the end of that period) to do so.
Because if they don’t, in order to stop this regression, they will need to perform even higher than the expectation.
Original Story:
http://onefansperspective.com/2011/01...
