Stars likely to sign Jason Robertson to bridge deal over long-term contract?

Among the remaining unsigned restricted free agents, a list that includes plenty of talent, there is one name that stands out above the rest. Jason Robertson, the young Dallas Stars phenom, is coming off a 41-goal, 79-point season that had him 13th in Hart Trophy voting in his sophomore season.

One look at the Stars’ Twitter account will show you how anxious fans are for his deal to be completed – even a picture of the right-handed Tyler Seguin sparked excitement, despite Robertson being a lefty.

After signing Jake Oettinger recently, the Stars now sit with about $6.3M in available cap space, though that number is a bit misleading as it represents a 22-man roster and Anton Khudobin’s entire hit; he or Scott Wedgewood can be put in the minors to open up some extra room.

It sounds like the Stars might be using all of that space to get a deal done with Robertson, as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet expects the eventual contract to come in around where Mathew Barzal (3 x $7.0M) and Elias Pettersson (3 x $7.35M) ended up on their own bridge deals.

While some may expect a long-term deal, Friedman doesn’t believe that’s what will happen:

"I just don’t think they have the ability to do this deal for term. If they couldn’t do Oettinger for term, then they certainly can’t do Robertson for term I don’t think, unless there is another move coming there that I don’t see right now. I wouldn’t expect Robertson right now for term."

Selected 39th overall in 2017, Robertson has been a monster for the Stars through two years, scoring 58 goals and 125 points in 128 career games. His 11 game-winning tallies in 2021-22 led the entire league, and the majority of his production was at even-strength. In fact, with just 14 power-play assists to this point (compared to 53 at 5v5) there is likely even more offensive potential to unlock in the young forward.

Still, as the Canucks experienced with Pettersson and the Islanders with Barzal, continued point-per-game production is no sure thing in the NHL. Whether because of injury or inconsistency, even young players can be risky bets when you are discussing long-term, big-money deals. Bridge contracts offer a team the ability to re-evaluate in a few years, while making sure they have the financial flexibility to stay competitive once the next contract kicks in.

A three-year term would like up Robertson with some expiring deals in Dallas, including captain Jamie Benn’s $9.5M AAV, Esa Lindell’s $5.8M and Ryan Suter’s $3.65M. At that point, when he and Oettinger need long-term extensions, there will be a few more dollars available.

That’s not to say a long-term deal at this point is impossible, even if Friedman doesn’t believe it will happen. One relatively small trade could open up the room to go bigger and longer for Robertson if the Stars decide that they are willing to go down that route. Either way, they’ll want their young star in training camp, which is now just a few weeks away.