Stars’ Playoff Surge Shows They Are Serious Cup Contenders

While they were favored by a narrow margin versus the Colorado Avalanche in The Hockey Writers’ second-round playoff poll, the series was expected to be fairly close. Through four games, it has not been close whatsoever as they lead 3-1. The Stars have thoroughly dominated an Avalanche team with serious Stanley Cup aspirations, garnering a three-goal lead in each contest and not once trailing in regulation.

The Stars are showing once and for all why they were just two points away from winning the President’s Trophy in the 2023-24 regular season. Right now, they are the team to beat in the NHL — nobody should want to face them.

Stars Can’t Be Beat When Oettinger Is Hot

The major change the Stars have had since Game 2 in their series against the Golden Knights is the play from goaltender Jake Oettinger. After a pretty underwhelming playoff run in 2023 when he had a .895 save percentage (SV%) overall, he struggled even further against Vegas early in the series. He wasn’t getting the big saves, and it hurt his team tremendously. Then, everything changed.

In his last nine contests, Oettinger has an incredible .934 SV% and a 1.80 goals-against average (GAA). This is the best among starters who are still active in the postseason, and it’s one of the biggest reasons why the Stars are playing so well. When they can get saves at this rate, they are truly unstoppable. With a 7-2 record during this span, he is one of Dallas’ most valuable players this postseason.

When players like Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar have three combined goals through four games and just three points each, it says a lot about how Oettinger has played. Colorado’s superstars haven’t really taken over in the second round, and that is largely due to the excellence of Dallas’ netminder. If the NHL’s best offense in terms of regular season goals can’t solve him, who will?

Johnston’s Emergence into Elite Territory

21-year-old center Wyatt Johnston was showing progression into becoming an elite player in the regular season with 65 points in 82 contests, but he has taken a significant leap into stardom with his playoff production. He has truly taken over games, sitting on seven goals and four assists for 11 points through 11 contests.

Just for reference, the Stars’ first line during the regular season consisted of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Joe Pavelski. So far, they have six combined goals through 33 contests, one short of Johnston’s seven. We are watching his development into, potentially, one of the NHL’s best centermen before our very eyes.

After one game, scoring is just random. After one series, it could just be a coincidence. Once nearly a dozen games are finished, it starts to become a pattern. Johnston’s scoring is legit, and he might only go up from where he is as long as he gets the opportunity to do so with some more ice time.

When the Stars are already pretty stacked with talent on offense and defense to begin with, having a breakout in the middle of a postseason makes it hard to find a weakness in their game. It’s just another factor that makes them virtually unstoppable in a seven-game series. Through four, the Avalanche have been lucky to win just one.

Stars Are a Deep Team

From top to bottom, the Stars are just naturally a really good team. That has been apparent for a while now, boasting a 55.8 percent expected goals percentage (xGF%) in the regular season. In the playoffs, that has only gotten better.

The Stars’ resilience against the Golden Knights landed them a 58.4 xGF% at all strengths. Against the Avalanche, that number has increased to 60 percent. Dallas hasn’t been good against them at 5-on-5 with a 44.1 xGF%, but their play on special teams and 4-on-4 has been tremendous. The Stars can find so many ways to win, which plays into their superiority.

From lines one through four, the Stars have players who can seamlessly move up and down the lineup. Johnston, who was third among Dallas forwards in ice time during the regular season at 17 minutes flat, has seen a jump to 20:08 which is first on the team by over a minute.

The Stars have a great middle-six, elite depth offensively, and a quality defense. Depth-wise, there isn’t a team out there that has them beaten in any significant way. A new player can take over on any given night, which is something that not a lot of clubs in the NHL can say.

Dallas obviously isn’t in the clear yet, as they still have a series to close out against the Avalanche, but they appear to be the most formidable team remaining in the postseason. Considering the other remaining teams in the Western Conference, the Vancouver Canucks and Edmonton Oilers, are using third-string netminders as their starters, one of the spots in the Stanley Cup Final seems like it should be the Stars’ to lose.