Tampa Bay Lightning Storylines and Player Deployment Analysis

The Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Nashville Predators by a score of 5-3 to open the season on Tuesday night. The Lightning came out hot, out-shooting the Predators 12-2 after the first period. Then, Nashville responded with a dominant second-half performance. Let’s review storylines from opening night. In addition, let’s see how Head Coach Jon Cooper deployed his familiar faces and new weapons to open the season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Storylines and Deployment From Game One

Nick Paul Shines on Top Power Play Unit

In a bold prediction from my previous article, I projected Nick Paul to record a 50-point season. An 18-point increase from a career-high of 32 points is a massive leap in production. The reason was Paul’s deployment as the net frontman on the power play to open the season. Paul used his enormous frame to knock two goals into the back of the cage in scrums. In addition, Paul added an assist on Nikita Kucherov‘s empty net tally.

Darren Raddysh Experiences Heavy Workload

Another bold prediction was Darren Raddysh transforming into a legitimate top-four defenceman for the Lightning. Raddysh recorded the highest 5v5 ice time amongst all Lightning players Tuesday night. Furthermore, Raddysh recorded three shots on goal, tied first amongst the team. Below is the time on ice for all Lightning defencemen at 5v5.

Raddysh: 16:55

Sergachev: 16:40

Hedman: 14:31

Cernak: 12:55

Perbix: 11:31

de Haan: 10:49

Defensive Zone Draws

Jon Cooper established his early season defensive zone draw line. Luke Glendening is responsible for the defensive zone face-offs alongside Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel. All three players started 20% or more of their 5v5 shifts in the defensive zone. This percentage is seven percent higher than the next forward in terms of starts in the defensive zone for Tampa Bay. Below is the percentage of defensive zone starts for the trio at 5v5:

Cirelli: 26.27%

Hagel: 21.43%

Glendening: 20%

Another note is how much trust Cooper thrusts into Cirelli and Hagel. Both players started only a third of their shifts on the fly. The duo plays in critical situations on both sides of the puck, either on offence or defence.

The Powerhouse Offensive Trio

The Lightning’s top line found great success in the offensive zone cycle. They were the focal point of the attack and performed well. Cooper used the talent of his top trio to his advantage. Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, and Kucherov all started 23% or more of their shifts in the offensive zone. In addition, Paul is experiencing a change in role. Last season, Paul was a defensive stalwart for the Lightning. He recorded a high percentage of his shifts in the defensive zone. However, to start this year, Paul saw 18.18% of his shifts begin in the offensive zone. Below is the percentage of offensive zone starts for the top line at 5v5:

Kucherov: 27.78%

Stamkos: 25%

Point: 23.58%

Additional Notes From Game One

Hagel was an absolute gamer against the Predators. He had three individual high-danger chances and three shots on goal. In addition, Hagel controlled 72.76% of the expected goals and 80% of the high-danger chances on ice. He also potted a goal on his penalty shot attempt.

The Lightning still don’t shoot the puck enough on the power play. Despite scoring twice on the man advantage, the unit always looks for the A+ shot attempt. Looking for the perfect shot causes over-passing on the perimeter and making mistakes. A higher volume of shots may increase the production of the already deadly power play.

Tampa Bay heads to Detroit on Saturday night for their first road game of the season. The club will look to build off a solid start to the 2023-24 season.