Below are my current rankings of the ten teams most likely to cut down the nets in Detroit on April 6. Because of the nature of what I'm trying to gauge, it's heavily weighted toward future performance, although past games do matter since they will affect seeding. In theory I'd like to do one of these every other week the rest of the season. In practice, who knows.
1. North Carolina
The lines say a lot, and the oddsmakers have been giving Carolina respect even after the two losses. There isn't another team in the country that would be favored by 17.5 against a Miami team that'll probably finish fifth in the ACC, or by 14 against a 16-1 Clemson team. They're "only" #2 in Pomeroy, and there's a good chance they end up not even winning their conference, but no other roster can compare.
Best odds: +300 (Bodog)
Would take them at: +600
2. Duke
Henderson is the only player that looks particularly impressive, but but it's hard to argue with the results. I doubt any other team in the country can match these six performances. They have a couple gimmes -- if a home game against the Terps can be considered a "gimme" -- before playing at Wake Forest a week from Wednesday, which will be their stiffest test yet.
Best odds: +1200 (5Dimes)
Would take them at: +1400
3. Pittsburgh
The loss to Louisville is disappointing, if not particularly surprising; they won't be the last team to shoot under 35% against that defense. Aside from the shooting (both from the field and the 9/16 from the line), the biggest issue was Blair's foul trouble, which limited him to 20 minutes. As Gasaway notes, Pitt was +8 when Blair was in, and -14 when he was sitting. The win over Syracuse on Monday night was nice, but to stay this high they're going to have to notch some more solid road wins like the one against Georgetown that catapulted them into the national spotlight; if they don't, one of their Big East brethren will.
Best odds: +1200 (The Greek)
Would take them at: +2000
4. Wake Forest
The Demon Deacons now have one of the most impressive road resumes in the countries, with wins at BYU and Clemson. Their only significant weakness is their lack of a three-point threat, but unlike Louisville they don't compound this problem by taking too many treys; only one in five of their field goal attempts are from deep. They're now in a stretch with only two games in 13 days before they host Duke next Wednesday. They won't face UNC again in the regular season; if they can split with the Blue Devils, and avoid collapsing in their other ACC games, they'll be in very good shape for a #1 seed.
Best odds: +2000 (Carib)
Would take them at: +3000
5. Connecticut
The Huskies are in the midst of one of the easier portions of their schedule, having beaten Cincinnati, St. John's, and Seton Hall easily. Their next big tests comes on Saturday, when the visit Notre Dame; the Irish may not be the best road team ever, but they have won 45 straight in South Bend. ND may not turn the ball over all game, but UConn should have their way with them on offense. My nagging doubt stems from the thought that it'll be very difficult to win six straight in March and early April without defending the perimeter.
Best odds: +1200 (5Dimes)
Would take them at: +4000
6. Louisville
Less than 29% of their field goals were three-point attempts in the Pitt game, so maybe they're seeing the light on that one. Clark is a monster on the boards -- you would be too, if your arms were six feet long -- but he needs to get closer to the 54% he shot on twos last year; he's under 47% this season, and was 5/15 from the floor against the Panthers. The Cardinals couple poor shooting from the field with a pathetic 66% FT%, 258th in the nation.
Best odds: +1500 (5Dimes)
Would take them at: +5000
7. Michigan St.
Their Pomeroy rating still doesn't quite do them justice, but will get closer to reality as the blowout losses to Maryland and UNC without Suton are weighted less and less. This is the best team in the Big Ten; the fact that they were favored by eight against Illinois on Saturday is even more impressive than their eventual six-point victory. In '07 and '08 they were great on the offensive glass while settling for good on the defensive boards; this season they're excelling in both areas, and may be the best overall rebounding team in the country.
Best odds: +2500 (5Dimes)
Would take them at: +5000
8. Georgetown
The losses to Duke and Pitt are certainly respectable, but I have a feeling that falling to Tennessee and Notre Dame isn't going to look that great by mid-March. Summers has really come alive in the last two games, dropping 21 on both Syracuse and Duke on a combined 14/25 from the floor. He's going to have to start crashing the boards again if the Hoyas want to be contenders though; he's gone from grabbing 17% of opponents' misses last year to under 12% this season. Freeman, Monroe and Summers are a nice trio on offense, and they always hold opponents to a low percentage from the field, but it's all going to be for naught if they don't fix their rebounding issues.
Best odds: +3000 (Carib)
Would take them at: +5000
9. Gonzaga
With only two real tests remaining in the regular season -- hosting Memphis on February 7, then at St. Mary's five days later -- it'll be tough to really gauge the Zags before March. The record isn't pretty, but the only the Portland St. loss is ugly; @Utah is an entirely reasonable game to lose, as they might make the tournament. Strangely enough, Gonzaga's seeding may hinge on Tennessee's performance in SEC play; their wins against the Vols in Florida and Knoxville are a big part of their resume. Pomeroy gives them about a 38% chance of running the table through the WCC tournament; at 27-4 they would be an interesting case for the committee. Their Pomeroy rank and bevy of pro prospects suggest that a potentially low seed is the only thing standing between them and a run to Detroit.
Best odds: +7500 (Bodog)
Would take them at: +6000
10. Arizona St.
They certainly would've taken a 1-1 split in LA, although that was an interesting way to get it. Harden woke up on Saturday after Thursday night's debacle, making 64% of his twos and finishing with 24 in their 61-58 OT win at Pauley. Pendergraph also chipped in with an impressive 9/10 from the floor, although a friend alertly pointed out that it's not all that difficult to convert 90% of your dunks. They actually have a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way, with seven of 12 at home. There are still some concerns defensively -- although you'd never know that if you saw the last 15 minutes of the UCLA game -- but they should be right with the Bruins in the race for the conference title.
Best odds: +6600 (5Dimes)
Would take them at: +7000
Maybe next time: Oklahoma, UCLA.
Original Story:
http://vegaswatch.net/2009/01/contend...
