Champions League betting: Barcelona vs. PSG pdds, predictions, picks for Tuesday 4/16

Barcelona vs. PSG Odds

Tuesday, April 16, 3 p.m. ET, CBS

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Barcelona

The lack of midfield ball stopping and winning in the open field has left major holes in Barcelona's transition defense in the last few months. If you look at La Liga data, Barcelona are dead last in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed. Once teams progress the ball into Barca's defensive final third, they're highly efficient at turning that into dangerous possession and shots. This isn't really a new problem for Xavi's sides in Europe, either. Last year, Barcelona struggled defensively in transition against Inter Milan, Bayern Munich and Manchester United before crashing out of the Europa League in February.

Barcelona lost Sergio Busquets to Inter Miami and then lost Gavi to injury in the fall and don't have a natural defensive midfielder to properly fill the role. While the return of Frenkie de Jong and Pedri for this tie has helped stabilize them in possession in midfield just in time, neither is a plus defensive midfielder.

It was Pedri's elite passing range that found Raphinha in behind the PSG defense for the equalizing goal in the first leg, and a set piece header from Andreas Christensen that gave Barcelona the edge. When Barcelona came out of half time and tried to sit a little deeper out of possession, that's when PSG found multiple goals to claim the lead. A panicked poor clearance led to the first goal from Ousmané Dembele and an unmarked midfield run from Vitinha broke through the Barcelona defense to put the French side up 2-1.

Barcelona should find plenty of success playing on the break in this match with Raphinha and Lamine Yamal making runs into space and PSG's mediocre counterpress getting routinely exposed. The question is whether Barcelona can replicate their plan to slow down Mbappé, who was in plenty of dangerous areas in the first leg but didn't create much in terms of quality chances.

PSG

PSG were quite wasteful in the final third and penalty area in the first leg. They managed 40 touches in the Barcelona penalty area, which resulted in just 1.2 expected goals in total. PSG carried the ball into the box 17 times and passed it into the penalty area another 15 times. Mbappé had three total shots, totaling 0.13 xG. You could look at this two ways. On one hand, PSG exposed just how flawed Barcelona are defensively. On the other hand, PSG's wasteful inefficiency has showed up in Europe at various points of the last couple seasons.

The French side played the first leg without star wing back Achraf Hakimi, who was suspended and will return for the second leg. Hakimi's ability to combine with Mbappé makes PSG even more difficult to defend, and a fit and in-form Dembele is a lot of pace and elite transition ability to expose Barcelona's biggest weaknesses.

PSG have played nine Champions League matches this season, including the first leg. The 40 touches in the opposition box they had in the first leg was the second most they had in any of those nine matches. The only match where PSG had more was a 1-1 draw with Newcastle where they totaled 4.4 xG. If anything, the French side was uncharacteristically inefficient and is likely to produce more chances and maybe even goals in this second leg.

Barcelona vs PSG

Prediction

The total closed at 3 for the first leg and flew over comfortably. Even with PSG being inefficient in the final third and penalty area, that match was extremely open and end-to-end. It's hard to see either team being capable enough defensively to shut down the scoring. Barcelona are playing with the lead and at home, but their defense is flawed enough out of possession to leave real concerns about their chances of slowing down PSG.

PSG scored twice in the first leg despite extremely inefficient attacking in the penalty area and a quiet game from Mbappé. Down a goal on the road, PSG will be pushing for goals from the opening kickoff and they're well set up to score in this match. I'd bet PSG team total over 1.5 at -110 or better. Major questions remain about PSG's defense as well, but the attack will threaten Barcelona more and more as the game becomes stretched.

Pick: PSG Team Total Over 1.5 (+105)