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Jarrod Bowen of West Ham United. Photo by West Ham United FC/West Ham United FC

Premier League best bets: Blades, Hammers and an Arsenal struggling to fire

By Alyssa Clang | Last updated 1/17/24

This is usually the place where we’d welcome you to a new Premier League matchday, but this isn't a new Premier League matchday: the league slow-rolled its post-holiday return by splitting matchday 21 across two weekends. Last weekend saw Burnley draw with Luton, Everton draw with Aston Villa, Man United draw with Spurs, Chelsea beat Fulham and Man City beat Newcastle; this weekend, the rest of the table will make its return from the festive period.

There are many storylines worth following within the five games airing this weekend. Will Arsenal shake off its winter doldrums and crush fellow London side Crystal Palace? Will Nottingham Forest shake off the threat of point deductions to send Brentford plummeting down the table? Will the Blades and the Hammers live up to their aggressive nicknames? Will Liverpool’s famous attacking spirit meet its match in Bournemouth’s slick Spanish passing? And will Brighton and Wolves receive all of the red cards or just some of them? (Seriously, check the stats: you wouldn’t expect it, but these two clubs see red all the time.)

We’ll find out by tea time on Monday. In the meantime, here’s where we think the best bets are hiding.

Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace — We’ve been calling Arsenal a title contender since the opening weekend, but the stats are starting to turn on the Gunners: according to Opta’s (fantastic) Premier League prediction algorithm, they have just a 2.8% chance of taking home the trophy this season. That’s better than Aston Villa, who is undoubtedly thrilled to be in the conversation with a 1.4% shot, but much, much worse than Liverpool, who has a 31.9% chance of making it happen. All of them pale in comparison to Man City’s de Bruyne-fueled 63.7%, of course, but still: that sub-5% chance has got to sting for ambitious Arsenal.

The end of the festive period was Arsenal’s undoing. After beating Brighton 2-0 it drew with Liverpool and lost to both West Ham and Fulham. It scored just four goals in those four games; Liverpool, meanwhile, scored six in the same period, and one of its games was a scoreless draw. Ironically, Arsenal’s weapons simply aren’t firing.

Crystal Palace, meanwhile, is having a very strange season that no one is talking about. (We’re guilty of it too, the team hardly ever appears in our Premier League previews. Sorry, Palace fans.) Things certainly aren’t going well, considering Palace is languishing in 14^th just five points above the relegation zone, but the team has proven itself capable of messing with top sides. It held Man City to a 2-2 draw. It very nearly did the same with Liverpool, too — the Reds needed a lucky injury-time strike to win.

Accordingly, while Arsenal should win this game handily, a draw is a tasty bet at +475. Arsenal does tend to flop during the winter season and Palace does tend to get it together against strong opposition.

Sheffield United vs. West Ham United — The odds are much, much closer on this one than you’d expect for a match between 20^th and six^th; risk-averse bettors might want to back West Ham winning this one at the frankly astonishing odds of +120. But more curious bettors should keep an eye on West Ham striker Jarrod Bowen. He’s quietly having the season of his life, with a per-game xG rating that comfortably places him in the top 20 attacking players of the league. He’s at +240 to score at any time in this one; we think he very well may.

Brighton vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers — Of all the games this weekend, this is the one that looks primed to deliver goals. Brighton have failed to score just twice this season; Wolves, just once. These are two erratic but forward-thinking teams who are surprisingly well matched for one another.

A scored draw feels like a solid bet here at +400. But bettors interested in pushing that wager further might also want to consider the number of goals; more than 3.5 is interesting at +162, and more than 4.5 is distant but intriguing at +350.

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