Premier League best bets: Hatter heroes and Villa villains

We’ve written at length about Arsenal’s predilection for corners in this space — they generate so many, even when they’re getting beaten. Brentford does too. (Just look at its recent 3-0 loss to Liverpool, in which it managed to get eight corners while being absolutely trounced.) 10 corners or more in this game feels like a steal at +125; braver bettors might want to consider 12 corners or more at +333.

Luton Town vs. Crystal Palace — There was a moment there where it looked like Luton might not win a single game all season — just goes to show how quickly things can change in the Premier League. The Hatters have become one of the league’s biggest success stories, picking up a few crucial points and lifting themselves out of the relegation zone. For a team surviving on a shoestring budget, Luton’s recent results have been downright stellar.

The Hatters will face Crystal Palace this weekend, a team that seems destined to finish mid-table for the rest of eternity. No one’s really concerned about Palace getting relegated — it’s 10 points clear of the drop zone — but recent results have given Palace fans pause. The team is winless in three and floundering without injured stars Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze. Without those two, Palace just isn’t scoring goals; it averaged less than a goal per game clear through October.

Can rising Luton beat sinking Palace? Probably not. But a draw feels like a realistic outcome here, especially considering Luton has home field advantage. At +230, we think it’s a bet worth considering.

Tottenham vs. Aston Villa — This game is the sleeper hit of the weekend: two underappreciated, once-great teams led by beloved managers who have restored them to their former glory. Spurs and Villa are duking it out for a top-four finish this season and this game could have massive implications for that battle.

And a "battle" it shall be: these are two of the most carded teams in the Premier League, with Villa averaging two per game in their last three and Spurs averaging … let’s just say considerably above that. (Spurs will be without Cristian Romero and Destiny Udogie this weekend because both are serving well deserved red card suspensions.) At +260 to be booked at any time, we’ve got our eyes on Villa’s Lucas Digne and Pau Torres — both feel likely to get carded against Spurs. Fans of trolling in goal might also want to consider Villa’s Emi Martinez, also at +260; if Villa wind up in the lead, he’s likely to waste as much time as he can until he gets carded.