Premier League best bets: Is it time to move on from the old favorites?

Where this weekend’s fixtures are lacking in excitement, they more than make up for it in skewed, exploitable odds. This weekend — more so than any other weekend thus far — the Premier League odds simply don’t seem to match up with the current capabilities of the teams involved. That’s good news for savvy bettors, who could earn surprising payouts by backing some pretty logical choices.

But where are the biggest opportunities? We think you’ll find them here:

Crystal Palace vs. Fulham

These teams are right next to each other in the table, sitting pretty in nin^th and 10^th respectively. So why, then, is Palace favored so heavily to win? At -110 to Fulham’s +320, these feel like incredibly skewed odds for two teams with identical Premier League records in 2023.

But the balance between Palace and Fulham isn’t a recent phenomenon. Go back in history and it’s so even as to become noteworthy: Crystal Palace has won 14, drawn 17 and lost 18 games against Fulham since 1907. With head-to-head records balanced on a knife’s edge, this meeting feels like a prime occasion for a draw — at +240, there’s no smarter choice on offer.

Chelsea vs. Aston Villa

Speaking of strange favorites, let’s look at this fixture, scheduled to take place in London at Stamford Bridge on Sunday afternoon. Chelsea is 1-2-2 on the season, in 14^th place, scoreless in its last two Premier League games, shouldering an injury list longer than my arm and just generally struggling through a very unpleasant crisis. Aston Villa, meanwhile, is 3-0-2, comfortably in the top 10, scoring goals for fun and riding high on its most positive season in years.

If we told you that one team was -120 to win and the other was +300, who do you think would take each one? 

You’re wrong: reverse it. Somehow, against reason, judgment and every possible historical statistic we can dig up, Chelsea is considered the overwhelming favorite here. While Villa is unlikely to smoke Chelsea, it’s wild that it’s considered such a long shot to succeed. At +275, we think a draw is a smart bet here too — but brave souls shouldn’t balk at a Villa victory at +300 either.

Burnley vs. Man United

Poor Burnley has struggled in its opening Premier League fixtures; the much-hyped promoted side has yet to win and only managed one draw in its first five games. But all is not lost for the Clarets. They’ve had a fiendishly difficult start, facing Aston Villa, Brighton, Man City and Spurs before finally picking up a point at Nottingham Forest. One must imagine that Burnley’s toughest days are behind it.

United, meanwhile, is not so lucky. The embattled club hasn’t really looked awful at any point this season, but it hasn’t looked great either, and beatings away at Spurs, Arsenal and Brighton left it languishing in 13^th. To make matters worse, United is in the midst of the worst injury crisis we’ve seen in a long time, one that’s left them with barely any defenders — 35-year-old Jonny Evans is likely to start for the Red Devils this weekend. Couple that with the exhaustion of a midweek defeat away to Bayern Munich and things do not look promising for United.

Even with all that drama, United should outclass Burnley; it’s a better attacking team by far. But given that it currently has no fit defenders, it feels like Burnley should be able to get a few shots in as well. United to win with at least one Burnley goal at +220 feels like a smart choice here.