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Adama Traore of Fulham. Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/Getty Images

Premier League best bets: Mid-table mayhem on a short weekend

By Alyssa Clang | Last updated 3/13/24

Welcome to Matchday 29 of the Premier League season, one of the shortest and sweetest weekends we'll have all year. The FA Cup —England's domestic knockout competition and the longest-running tournament in world soccer — is holding its quarterfinals this weekend. Seven Premier League teams (and one lucky Championship side in Coventry) will contest them, and that means that all scheduled league games featuring those sides have been postponed.

Everton vs. Liverpool? Postponed. Brighton vs. Man City? Postponed. Arsenal vs. Chelsea? Postponed, and Chelsea can thank its lucky stars for that. This Premier League weekend has narrowed from 10 chaotic matches to four bite-sized fixtures. Since most of the top teams have advanced in the FA Cup, the matches we get will be mid-table ones. We tend to breeze over these in favor of the title and relegation battles; this weekend presents an excellent opportunity to give them their flowers.

We'll cover West Ham vs. Aston Villa, the clear marquee game of the set, in more depth tomorrow. But first, here are some bets we're eyeing in the remaining three:

Burnley vs. Brentford — Saturday, March 16, 11 a.m. ET, USA Network. Longtime watchers of the Premier League will remember the Sean Dyche era at Burnley, a 10-year stretch of time in which the team fully submitted to Dyche's gravelly, physical, "get it launched" mentality and did very well for itself. Burnley's soccer certainly wasn't pretty, but it was effective, and the team transformed from a Championship yo-yo club to a bonafide Europa League qualifier.

What a wild shock, then, for Burnley to eschew Dyche's pragmatism for the Guardiola-inspired possession model championed by new coach Vincent Kompany. At first, the switch seemed inspired: Burnley won the Championship with it and looked set to challenge in the Premier League. But we're 28 games into the season now and Burnley has won just three games with this new model. They've resisted the temptation to go back to uglier tactics thus far, but if there was ever a time to "get it launched" Dyche-style for poor Burnley, it'd be now.

Burnley's abhorrence of other tactical models may well come from Brentford, a fellow yo-yo club who secured Premier League consistency through set-piece brilliance and Danish devil-may-care tactics. If Brentford can do it, Kompany must be thinking, surely we can too. But even Brentford is running up against reality this season; it's got seven wins to Burnley's three and has struggled to stay above 15th place.

Two coaches holding onto ineffective dogmas meet in this clash: only one will prevail. We're giving it to Thomas Frank's Brentford and backing them to win at +115.

Luton Town vs. Nottingham Forest — Saturday, March 16, 11 a.m. ET, Peacock. These two lower-table teams played out an entertaining 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture. Luton came back to level it in extra time; it was a rare occasion where a late goal in a Luton game actually helped Luton instead of sinking it. The poor Hatters have lost by one goal late in the second half after scoring in the first a whopping seven times this season.

Bettors who like working off of historical context can use that information and bet on Nottingham Forest to score higher in the second half at +137; we certainly won't tell you not to. But we're really rooting for Luton to win this one outright at +170. It's done quite well for itself at home and Forest is no great shakes right now; if the Hatters want to snatch their first league win since January, this is their best opportunity to do it.

Fulham vs. Tottenham — Saturday, March 16, 1:30 p.m ET, Universo, Telemundo. This is one of the lesser-known London derbies for a reason: where, say, Arsenal vs. Spurs is pointed and filled with rage, Fulham vs. Spurs is altogether pleasant. Add in the fact that this game will take place at Craven Cottage, Fulham's picturesque, family-friendly stadium alongside the River Thames, and the whole fixture starts to feel less like a local rivalry and more like a lovely day out.

The lack of vitriol between these teams cools this match off, but that doesn't mean it won't be a spectacle. These are two free-scoring, never-say-die outfits with plenty to play for, and we can expect them to go for goals. We're backing Timo Werner as an anytime goalscorer at +187 after he opened his Spurs account against Crystal Palace. Bettors looking for a longer shot might want to consider Fulham's Adama Traore at +333. He's one of the most intimidating players in the Premier League — seriously, he looks like he should be playing American football — and while his finishing isn't always up to par, when he hits, he really hits. He's become something of a super sub at Fulham and could change the game for it if he makes an appearance in the second half.

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