Premier League best bets: The return of the fabled 'Cold Wednesday Night'

Wolves vs. Burnley — Wolves is just one of those teams; it’ll beat Man City and Spurs, then turn around and lose to Sheffield United and Ipswich Town. (No, really.) How do you make sense of a team that keeps racking up seemingly senseless results? We do it by examining its opposition: what kind of run it’s on, what kind of soccer it plays and what kind of trouble it can likely make for the Midlands mystery that is Wolverhampton Wanderers.

This week, that opposition is Burnley — and Burnley is in an eyebrow-raising position. It defeated Sheffield United 5-0 last weekend at home in a dominating display and lifted itself out of the relegation zone for the first time in ages. Burnley isn’t a mid-table team and it will likely continue to fight the specter of demotion, but it’s riding on a rare high right now and might be able to turn that into a result against hapless Wolves. We think a draw is an interesting bet at +260.

Aston Villa vs. Man City — Arguably the headlining match of this set of fixtures, this game is full of opposing storylines. On one side: Aston Villa, performing better than it ever has, scoring more goals at home than anyone in Europe bar Bayern Munich. On the other: Man City, fresh off three back-to-back Premier League draws, frustrated, alienated and without two of its most exciting and idiosyncratic players. Villa hasn’t lost a single game at home in the league this season; City hasn’t won one without Rodri available for selection.

The tug of war between these narratives makes this game a tough one to call. But it’s true that City enters it in its weakest position in several months, and that means that betting against City, while generally a bad idea, could have some merit here. Bettors looking for a City hedge without too much risk might consider choosing a Villa win or draw at +105 or a City win with Villa goals at +200; bettors looking for something a bit more spicy might consider a straight-up Villa win at +350. But all bettors should keep an eye on Villa defender Ezri Konsa picking up a yellow card—we think he’s a near-certainty to get booked, but the odds have him at a perplexing +220.

Man United vs. Chelsea — No two Premier League teams are mired in deeper crises than United and Chelsea—not even point-docked Everton or rock-bottom Sheffield United. That should tell you everything you need to know about the vibes going into this Wednesday evening clash: they’re not exactly going to be stellar.

Man United has the slight edge in this game despite Chelsea’s better recent form; this largely comes down to historical home field advantage. Chelsea’s Old Trafford record is abysmal, with zero wins, six draws and four losses coming from its recent visits.

Who will win this one, though? We think it’s too close to call, even with United’s superior record. One thing is for sure: no one will be hungrier or more prepared for this game than United captain Bruno Fernandes. He’s the man we’ll be watching, and at +300 to score and +200 to get a yellow card, he’s the man we’d recommend betting on, too.