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Arsenal's Martin Odegaard. PA Images/Alamy Images

Premier League best bets: Tracking all the Decision Day madness

By Alyssa Clang | Last updated 5/15/24

Welcome to Matchday 38 of 38 of the Premier League season: the last dance of 2023-24.

What a year it has been. We were blessed with a three-horse title race between Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool, a two-horse dogfight for the Champions League between Aston Villa and Spurs, and a game of relegation chicken between Luton Town, Nottingham Forest and Everton. We saw Bournemouth overperform; we saw Man United and Chelsea underperform in ways that were equally cathartic and hilarious. This season was so packed full of action that even Wolves and Crystal Palace, traditionally the blandest and least-interesting outfits in the league, managed to pack in some wild storylines along the way.

As the season comes to a close this Sunday, one key question remains: Who will win the title? Man City is in pole position; if it wins, it takes home the trophy, no questions asked. If it loses, though, an Arsenal win will send the trophy down to London for the first time in ages.

To prevent match-fixing (and to ramp up the drama of the final day) Matchday 38 will kick off simultaneously. That's right: all 10 games will run concurrently from 11 a.m. ET this Sunday. The good news is we'll be able to see any and all updates to the title race play out in real time; the bad news is that we'll all be watching one game rather than several to close the season out.

We've identified a few key games from the set of 10 for our final slate of Premier League bets. Thanks so much for watching along with us this year; it's been an absolute pleasure. Here's hoping Darwin Nunez gets it together this weekend in our honor and scores the header of our collective dreams. (He's at +450 to get it done against Wolves. Do we dare? We might.)

Arsenal vs. Everton. The Gunners couldn't have dreamed up a better final day opponent: Everton is safe from relegation, unable to gain many places in the table, and likely to be relaxed and unfocused as it closes out its season at the Emirates. We think Arsenal is a shoo-in to win this one, and the odds agree, placing an Arsenal victory at -550. But it wouldn't surprise us if the seriousness of the occasion led to Arsenal getting a slow start and failing to pull ahead until the second half. We like the look of a tied first half and an Arsenal victory second half at +300.

Manchester City vs. West Ham. Poor David Moyes. The irascible Scottish coach has worked his tail off in the Premier League for well over a decade — first with Everton, then with Man United and West Ham — only for the vast majority of Premier League fans to dismiss him as a hack. It must be strange, then, for Moyes to watch himself become a fan favorite on the eve of his final game in the league, simply because he and West Ham represent the world's last hope for stopping another Man City title win.

Does Moyes think he can stop City? No. "I think it'd be difficult stopping their [City's] U-14s from winning the title if I'm honest," he told Sky Sports in a press conference this week. "We'll try to do the best we can." Fair enough. But for those bleeding-heart fans of a more competitive Premier League, know that a West Ham win or tie is available at the attractive odds of +600. Will either happen? Probably not. But it's the last weekend of the season, people. Dare to dream! If not now, then when?

Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa. This match doesn't have any jeopardy; Palace is guaranteed a mid-table finish and Villa is guaranteed fourth place and a Champions League berth. (Villa can thank Unai Emery's tactical brilliance and Spurs' insistence on playing out the back equally for that windfall.) But this game is interesting regardless because of just how skillful these two teams became in 2024. Palace under Austrian coach Oliver Glasner has been the third-best team in the league; Villa, beloved all season by neutrals, has been the fourth. We can see this one being an entertaining scored draw and would back that at +333.

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