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Bournemouth's Dominic Solanke. Photo by John Walton/PA Images via Getty Images

Premier League Game of the Week: Can cresting Bournemouth throw off Liverpool's title challenge?

By Alyssa Clang | Last updated 1/18/24

At first glance, Bournemouth vs. Liverpool looks like an odd choice for the Premier League Game of the Week. Bournemouth is in 12^th; Liverpool is sitting pretty in first. Nothing about it looks like a fair fight.

But consider Bournemouth for a minute. Consider this small, likable team from a small, likable town, the southernmost outpost of the Premier League. It kicked off last season with a 9-0 thumping by yes, you guessed it, Liverpool and went on to finish 15^th after losing its final four games. It then sacked coach Gary O’Neil, hired coach Andoni Iraola, and brought on celebrity investors like Michael B. Jordan over the summer. The motivation behind all that change was clear: to make Bournemouth appointment viewing without losing the team's inherent seaside charm.

It took a while for things to come together, but come together they have. Coach Iraola was largely unknown by English (and American) audiences when he was brought on board but he’s proven to be a masterstroke of a hire. His clear-cut style — physical, aggressive and centered on speed — has worked wonders for the Cherries, earning them big wins over Man United, Newcastle and Fulham. (Iraola, incidentally, is the third Basque manager to join the Premier League for 2023-24, with the others being Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta and Aston Villa’s Unai Emery. They’re all thriving. Clearly, there’s something in the water in that small autonomous region in the north of Spain.)

But can Bournemouth’s rebirth threaten Liverpool, the top team in the league? Most weeks, we’d say no … but this is not most weeks. It’s the first week that Liverpool will be without Japanese midfielder Wataru Endo and Egyptian striker Mo Salah (both have joined up with their national teams for the Asian Cup and African Cup of Nations respectively — Endo is playing in Bahrain while Salah is playing in Côte D’Ivoire.)

Endo is the more interesting loss of the two. He’s sat deep in the middle of Liverpool’s midfield for its past few league games, setting the pace of the match and protecting the defense. While Salah’s absence is easy to grasp — Liverpool will miss his goals — Endo’s is far more slippery. Liverpool has quietly built the best midfield in the Premier League this season and Endo is an important part of it. With him gone, things could get dicey in the center of the park.

Bournemouth will want to perform well here to hammer home its improvement over last season; it will also be acutely aware of the fact that Liverpool haven’t been weaker in a long, long time. Liverpool will want — no, need — to win to keep the pressure on Man City, a team that lost precisely no one to international tournaments and gained a newly fit Kevin de Bruyne. This one might look like no contest on paper, but it’s bound to be a thriller.

Here are the bets we’re eyeing:

Result Half Time / Full Time. We think Liverpool should take this one, but only just. Bournemouth has made up plenty of ground since that 9-0 defeat in the summer of 2022. There are two things worth considering when it comes to a Liverpool victory, though: Bournemouth’s defense and Liverpool’s habit of scoring late. Bournemouth has up-leveled its defense considerably since the start of the season. It concedes just .6 goals per match these days, down from 2.45 prior to mid-November, and its inside-the-box shot concessions have dropped from 12.27 to 8.6 per game, too. Liverpool, meanwhile, loves to wait until the last possible minute to seal wins, and that means it might take a while for the Reds to lock this one down.

Clearly, a Liverpool victory isn’t exactly a huge moneymaker at -143. But a Liverpool victory coupled with a tie at halftime could pay dividends at +400.

Goalscorers. All eyes will be on Bournemouth’s Dominic Solanke for this one. The former Liverpool man never really found his footing with the Reds but has come into his own under Iraola’s care. He’s at +137 to score or assist.

Tackles. With Endo missing for Liverpool due to Asian Cup action, Dutch midfielder Ryan Gravenberch and Argentinian midfielder Alexis Mac Allister will have to pick up his defensive slack. Gravenberch is at +120 to execute greater than 1.5 tackles; Mac Allister is at +100 to execute greater than 2.5. Both feel like entirely logical scenarios given the extra work they’ll take on against the Cherries.

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