Vancouver's MLS success a mix of one important addition and luck

So, what's going on here? Did Vancouver, led by charismatic Italian coach Vanni Sartini, make big moves in the offseason to bring about this positive change? Or is it just early-season luck? 

The answer may be a mix of both.

Vancouver made a few changes during the offseason, but none was bigger than the arrival of Haitian striker Fafà Picault from Nashville SC. Before this season, the eight-year MLS veteran — a versatile forward capable of playing on both sides of the field — had been an excellent leader with four MLS teams. 

Picault's lone season in Nashville wasn't stellar (five goals, one assist), perhaps the reason Vancouver signed the proven goalscorer at a reasonable rate. With a goal in his past three matches, he has made a big impact for Vancouver. 

Aside from Picault, though, Vancouver didn't make any seismic shifts to its lineup during the offseason. It was linked to Canadian midfielder Richie Laryea but didn't sign him, making this Vancouver team roughly the same as the one that finished sixth last season.

The difference this season is goalscoring. 

Vancouver closed the 2023 regular season, averaging 1.62 goals per game. With six games played in 2024, the Whitecaps are averaging 2.33. These goals aren't all coming from Picault, either. They are scattered about the pitch, with strikers, midfielders and defenders finding the back of the net.

While all this scoring looks great for Vancouver on paper, the underlying stats don't back it up.

Vancouver's expected goals (xG) number — a statistic determining how many goals a team should score based on its buildup play — indicates the club should have 8.41 goals over the course of the 2024 season. In reality, it has 14.

That 5.59 gap is the biggest gulf between expected and scored goals in MLS, and it points to Vancouver's massive overperformance, which is impressive in its own right. 

Additional statistics support this view.

Vancouver is the second-most accurate team in the league in attack, with 48.3% of its shots converting into goals. By contrast, the Columbus Crew — a team still believed to be the best and most complete unit in MLS — is only averaging 35.6% accuracy in attack. 

Vancouver can — and should — expect that accuracy figure to dip in the future. And its record could dip with it. Austin FC experienced that same dip in 2023 and Orlando City is experiencing it now.

If Vancouver can translate its positive momentum from this overperformance into thoughtful tactical shifts, it may retain its grip on the Western Conference's top spot.