LATEST STORIES FROM FANGRAPHS

Demography of the Good Player, Part I: Amateur Origins

Recently, Jeff Sullivan wrote a piece here attempting to answer a question notable both for its simplicity and importance. The question: how many good players were good prospects? As Sullivan notes, one typically finds the question pursued in reverse: of this or that group of prospects (top-10 prospects, top-100 prospects, etc), how did they fare […]
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7 hours ago  |  Discuss

The Smallest Big Free Agent Signings

With Spring Training slowly motoring into life, that means another cash-flush free agency session has come to its conclusion. In truth, though, maybe we should think of this time of year — extension-signing season — as the time and place where all of the true money is spent. Consider: of the twenty largest contracts (in […]
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11 hours ago  |  Discuss

Importance of Market Size, Attendance and TV Revenue on Payroll

The New York Yankees’ and Los Angeles Dodgers’ payrolls continue to dominate when it comes to paying players. Not coincidentally, those two teams have the best local television deals in Major League Baseball. On average, the two will receive more than $300 million annually over the course of their deals, per Forbes. As more teams cash […]
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12 hours ago  |  Discuss

The Frightening Prospect of a Good Matt Harvey Curveball

Matt Harvey hasn’t been featured in these digital pages since the illustrious David Temple pointed out in early August that the Mets right-hander was throwing again after 2013 Tommy John surgery. With his coming start on Friday against the Tigers in the Grapefruit League, Harvey is about to be pitching again to major league hitters; […]
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13 hours ago  |  Discuss

Tim Lincecum’s last best chance

What you probably already know is that next winter’s free agent starting pitching crop has the potential to be historic, not only due to the amount of talent currently unsigned beyond 2015 but for the hundreds of millions of dollars they’ll surely command. With the obvious caveat that extensions for some of these guys are […]
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14 hours ago  |  Discuss

Your Opinions of the Team Projections

So, as you know, it’s been an exciting week. There is baseball! There is baseball, with major-league teams playing against other major-league teams, and sometimes non-major-league teams. Some players have hit dingers, and some pitchers have struck some guys out. Meanwhile, on this very website, we’ve launched 2015 playoff odds, having uploaded all the 2015 […]
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15 hours ago  |  Discuss

How the Playoff Odds Have Changed in a Year

As of just a short while ago: 2015 playoff odds! The odds we ran through last season are back, with division chances, wild-card chances, World Series chances, and so on and so forth. With meaningful player movement basically complete, with few important roster competitions, and with both Steamer and ZiPS folded in, these are your […]
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

An Account or Description of a Real Baseball Game

The purpose of this post is to announce — for the benefit, in particular, of those readers who possess responsibilities which might preclude them from monitoring very closely such developments — the purpose is to announce not only that spring-training baseball has begun in earnest, but also that audio and visual of same is now […]
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

The Precedent for a Craig Kimbrel Changeup

As pitchers go, Craig Kimbrel‘s been doing all right. Over the last three years, he leads baseball in adjusted ERA. “Well,” you say, “ERA can be misleading.” Absolutely so! Conveniently, over the last three years, he also leads baseball in adjusted FIP. “But,” you add, “FIP can be misleading in its own way.” Definitely. Observe, […]
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Brian Dozier And Extensions for Position Players

Last spring, Mike Trout, Jason Kipnis, Starling Marte, Jedd Gyorko, Matt Carpenter, Yan Gomes, and Andrelton Simmons all received contract extensions buying out free agent years before they had even hit arbitration. The spring before last Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, and Allen Craig signed similar deals. The deals ranged from Gomes’ $23 million guarantee to […]
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Odrisamer Despaigne’s Strange Grip

Have you seen Odrisamer Despaigne‘s strange crossed-finger grip? I noticed a while ago and wrote about it, and then went on television talking about it, and then was quoted by a colleague, all the while saying that this grip was his changeup grip. It had to be because what else would be so weird, and […]
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Trying to solve the Alex Guerrero problem

We’ve all seen it in various TV shows or movies; the main character is sitting on the floor of some room, surrounded by various pieces of hardware after being challenged to assemble some piece of furniture from vague and unhelpful instructions. And then, usually after a cutaway or some kind of time-lapse, we see the […]
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 3/3/15

Live Blog Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Making Sense of Ozhaino Albies’ Awesome Pro Debut

Lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel turned some heads when he ranked Ozhaino Albies — a 5-foot-9, 17-year-old shortstop — as the top prospect in the Atlanta Braves minor league system. Albies was on the prospect radar prior to Kiley’s ranking, but slotted much lower on most organizational prospect lists this winter. Keith Law, John Sickels, Baseball America, and Baseball...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

BABIP and Year-to-Year Offensive Fluctuations

As we anticipate the start of the 2015 Major League Baseball season, we begin to speculate about player performance in the upcoming season. While most players are somewhat consistent year-to-year, there are some who have either breakout years or terrible seasons. These extreme years are a confluence of events throughout the season such as player […]
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Two Pitchers Overrated By Both ERA And FIP

The FIP statistic was created because of the inherent shortcomings of ERA; so much that was reflected in the traditional pitchers’ statistic was totally out of their control, and the new metric credited and debited hurlers for that which they did. As it turns out, FIP isn’t perfect either, as not all types of batted-ball […]
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Analyzes All Sloan

Episode 537 Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses certain relevant and sexy exploits from the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter. You can subscribe to […]
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Not Technically Slow-Motion Footage of Alfredo Despaigne

Cuban jugador Alfredo Despaigne, whose exploits and spirit have been celebrated previously in these pages, appears to have recorded both the 14th and 15th home runs of his season in Cuba’s Serie Nacional today. The footage above depicts the former of those home runs and also depicts Despaigne’s not technically slow-motion, but still 41-second tour […]
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

The Top-Five Angels Prospects by Projected WAR

Earlier today, Kiley McDaniel published his consummately researched and demonstrably authoritative prospect list for the Los Angeles Angels. What follows is a different exercise than that, one much smaller in scope and designed to identify not L.A.’s top overall prospects but rather the rookie-eligible players in the Angels’ system who are most ready to produce […]
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

The Team Projections and You, Again

Hello, and welcome to something we’ve already done. Two months ago, I asked you what you thought of the American League team projections, then I followed that up by asking you what you thought of the National League team projections. Shortly thereafter, I analyzed all the results, and, what fun we had. What number of […]
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

2015 ZiPS Projections!

The 2015 ZiPS Projections, courtesy of Dan Szymborski, are now available in sortable form and on the player pages. In addition, ZiPS projections are now combined with the Steamer projections to make up our projected standings.
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Pedro Alvarez Improved in a Down Year

We all know Pedro Alvarez had a pretty rough year in 2014, as he hit just 18 home runs, half of his total of 36 in 2013. That was almost the whole story, as hitting home runs (usually impressive, towering ones) is what Pedro Alvarez does well. Unfortunately, he happened to time the failure of […]
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

The Current Key for Nathan Eovaldi

It’s a fascinating and volatile starting rotation in New York. CC Sabathia‘s been awesome before, but he’s got injury questions. Same goes for Masahiro Tanaka. Same goes for Michael Pineda. Same, to some extent, goes for Ivan Nova. Nathan Eovaldi has fewer of the injury questions. Just last year he was an out shy of […]
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

July 2nd Spending Plans Are Coming Into Focus

With the Red Sox recently adding Yoan Moncada to the fold last week (details and audio interview), the biggest international domino has fallen and now there’s more certainty for teams and agents going forward about what teams can spend on July 2nd. In an early draft of this article, I was going to point out that MLB […]
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Corey Kluber Foremost Among Pitcher Extension Candidates

Contract extensions for younger players have been on the rise in recent years. Over the past three springs, 38 players with under six years of service have signed extensions buying out free agent years. Twenty-four of those 38 contract extensions were signed by players who had yet to reach arbitration. Eight contract extensions have gone […]
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2 days ago  |  Discuss
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