LATEST STORIES FROM FANGRAPHS

Sunday Notes: Whitley’s Cattle, Cubs Butler, Gausman’s Analogy, Prideful Yard Goat, more

Chase Whitley grew up playing good old country hardball in Alabama. More specifically, he played it in rural Alabama. The Tampa Bay Rays right-hander hails from Ranburne, which he affectionately described as “a small town with zero stoplights.” Fewer than 500 people call it home, so it’s no wonder he knows “literally every person there.” In Hoosiers-like fashion, the close...
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4 hours ago  |  Discuss

Does your win expectancy change if the game is still scoreless?

Jeff Sullivan had a variation of this question for me. I found it intriguing enough to take a quick look. This chart is limited to games where the game was tied entering any half inning. Obviously, the first two half-innings, the game is scoreless entering those half innings. And we don’t see much separation until we get to the start of the 11th half inning (i.e, top of the...
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21 hours ago  |  Discuss

Effectively Wild Episode 1048: Such is This Game, and Such is Life

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Ichiro’s home run in his return to Seattle, the feasibility of intentionally allowing dingers, a John Jaso quote, and manager bobbleheads, then discuss the present and future use, abuse, and presentation of Statcast data. Audio intro: Prince, "Get Yo Groove On"Audio outro: The Jam, "Away from the Numbers"  (Please rate and review...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Madison Bumgarner Crashes His Bike and Playoff Hopes

It’s not a shock that Madison Bumgarner has never been on the disabled list before now. He’s a big horse of a man, made purely of muscle and tree sap. The only thing that’s prevented him from being sidelined is Bruce Bochy not letting him throw 400 innings in a year and, apparently, that he’s been steady on a dirt bike until now. The AC joint, for those of you at home who...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

The Most Impossible Task of the Summer

The story of the first few weeks of this season has almost certainly been the arrival of Eric Thames, who has returned from Korea to look like one of the game’s best power hitters. While Thames won’t keep hitting like Babe Ruth in his prime, unless there’s some hidden exploitable flaw that no one has found yet, he’s probably going to be a pretty decent hitter for the Brewers...
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Tyler Chatwood’s New Tyler Chatwood

A tough thing about analyzing pitching is that it’s a moving target. You can get a decent sense of what a pitcher is like right now, and then he can completely change his approach over the next month and become a different pitcher. There’s evidence of this in the data: a pitcher’s exit velocity becomes stable relatively quickly, but then that stat’s predictability doesn...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

A Leaderboard of Interest to Potential Bidders for Eric Hosmer

Eric Hosmer is a free agent after this season. Maybe the most interesting free agent of the upcoming winter. If you are an unnamed scout who talked to Jon Heyman back in spring training, you think Hosmer should get far more than the 5 years/$73 million Brandon Belt got as an extension from the Giants, because anyone who thinks Belt is better than Hosmer should “get a grip”. The...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Free Hyun Soo Kim!

Hyun Soo Kim posted a .382 on-base percentage last season. He was one of just 20 players to post a .380 OBP or better (min. 300 plate appearances). As I’m sure you’re aware, that’s a pretty great mark. As I detailed a little in the positional power rankings for left field, Kim had a rocky start with the Orioles, who generally seemed not to like him very much. But by the end...
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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/21/17

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Job Posting: MLB Advanced Media Coordinator, Club Relations

Position: MLB Advanced Media Coordinator, Club Relations Location: New York, N.Y. Description: The Coordinator, Club Relations will assist the Manager, Club Relations, in providing stats, data, reports and services to the 30 MLB clubs, all minor league clubs, and their vendors and business partners, as well as MLBAM internal consumers. Candidates must have a strong knowledge of...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Can Simple Be Sophisticated for Strasburg?

It seems Stephen Strasburg is underappreciated. Maybe it’s because of the hype and expectations that surrounded his draft position and prospect pedigree. It doesn’t help that he’s only been able to reach 200 innings once in his career. His durability and total volume of innings are real issues. But when he’s on the mound he has some of the best stuff in the game, and I...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013. The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball. Central to the exercise, of...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Grading the Pitches: 2016 NL Starters’ Curveballs

Previously Changeup: AL Starters / NL Starters. Curveball: AL Starters. We’re almost three weeks into the regular season, with sample sizes mounting but still not to a level worthy of significant analysis, Eric Thames notwithstanding. We’ll take the opportunity to continue our look back at 2016 pitch quality. We looked at AL ERA qualifiers’ curveballs earlier this week; today...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Mitch Haniger’s Six Great Comps and One Boring One

So far, Mitch Haniger has been one of the best hitters in baseball. He’s not alone — Freddie Freeman has also been one of the best hitters in baseball. Eric Thames and Francisco Lindor and Khris Davis have been some of the best hitters in baseball. By definition, we’re talking in pluralities, but Haniger is one of a small group, and I would like to write about him. This is...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Coaching Matt Bush

Once someone who’s erred has done his time, apologized, and satisfied society institutionally, there’s the matter of going on with life. This is true with every crime, however horrible, and the things Matt Bush did were horrible. He’s served his time — 39 months — and hopes we can forgive him. But that’s almost of secondary concern to him, at this point: life, and living...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Caleb Joseph on the Maturation Process

Caleb Joseph is a classic example of a catcher whose value extends well beyond his raw stats. The 30-year-old Baltimore Orioles backstop isn’t much of a hitter, and while his defensive numbers are good — he’s an above-average pitch-framer and has a solid success rate throwing out runners — they’re by no means elite. More than anything, Joseph is a game-manager and a psychologist...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Freddie Freeman Is Now an Elite Slugger

Up until last year, Freddie Freeman was an example of just how good a hitter a player could be without top-shelf power. From 2013 to 2015, he was the only player in MLB to run a 140 or better wRC+ while posting an ISO below .200. He put up the same wRC+ as David Ortiz despite being out-homered by Big Papi 102 to 59, as his .351 BABIP helped him offset the relatively lower number...
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3 days ago  |  Discuss

Effectively Wild Episode 1047: The Email Answers You Ordered

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Jason Benetti, Andrew Triggs, Addison Reed and Odubel Herrera, C.B. Bucknor’s bad day, and Starling Marte’s suspension, then answer listener emails about the nature of fandom, dominance against a division rival, a billion-dollar payroll, Eric Thames’s hot start, transplanting an NPB team, catching up to favorite players from childhood...
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3 days ago  |  Discuss

Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 4/20/16

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3 days ago  |  Discuss

Aaron Judge Put a Ball into Orbit Last Night

Aaron Judge is large. He’s 6-foot-7 and 275 pounds of human. A lean, mean slugging machine. He is one of, if not the, largest players in the game right now, and we are blessed to be able to watch him ply his craft in the big leagues. It doesn’t hurt that he plays in Yankee Stadium, which is essentially the size of a thimble, but Judge doesn’t exactly need shallow walls to do...
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3 days ago  |  Discuss

Andrew McCutchen’s Second Last Chance in Center

Few people benefit in Pittsburgh from Starling Marte‘s 80-game steroid suspension, but Andrew McCutchen could be one of them. After McCutchen logged the first eight seasons and 10,317.1 innings of his defensive career exclusively in center field, the Pirates elected to move him — against his wishes — to right field this year. The idea? To accommodate the more able glove and...
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3 days ago  |  Discuss

Daily Prospect Notes, 4/20

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here. Christian Arroyo, 3B, San Francisco (Profile)Level: Triple-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: 1  Top 100: 69Line: 4-for-5, 2B, HR Notes That’s a home run in two consecutive games for Arroyo — both in Sacramento’s Raley Field, which is pitcher-friendly compared to most other PCL...
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3 days ago  |  Discuss

Starling Marte and Home Runs in the Era of PED Testing

This is Joe Sheehan’s’s third piece as part of his April residency at FanGraphs. A founding member of Baseball Prospectus, Joe currently publishes an eponymous Baseball Newsletter. You can find him on Twitter, as well. Read all our residency posts here. Starling Marte has been suspended 80 games for a first violation of the Joint Drug Agreement. Per MLB, Marte tested positive...
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3 days ago  |  Discuss

Job Posting: Tampa Bay Rays TrackMan Stringers/Operators

Position: Tampa Bay Rays TrackMan Stringers/Operators Location: Port Charlotte, Fla. Description: TrackMan Stringers/operators will be responsible for running the TrackMan system for Charlotte Stone Crabs’ home games they’re assigned in Port Charlotte, Fla. The number of games each stringer works varies by week. Stringer(s) will start as soon as possible. Responsibilities: ...
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3 days ago  |  Discuss

Kyle Hendricks Walked Tommy Milone on Four Pitches

Sometimes baseball is good, and sometimes baseball is bad, but always, baseball is weird. It can be weird because a player gets hit by pitches in four plate appearances in a row. It can be weird because a game ends with a strikeout, and then everyone celebrates, and then the umpire decides the pitch the batter missed wasn’t actually missed after all, even though it clearly and...
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3 days ago  |  Discuss
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