Avs season preview: Part IV - 'Other'

This could be a doozy, so we'll jump right in, because there's a lot I want to cover. Most of the regression talk with the Avs comes in three forms: Goaltending/sv%, Corsi/Fenwick, and Shooting %. There's a couple more areas I don't thik have gotten a lot of ink, so I'm going to talk about them, but I'll start with Shooting %: Shooting %: Shooting % is...
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28 days ago  |  Discuss

Avs season preview: Part III - Defense

Key Additions: Brad Stuart, Zach Redmond Key Subtractions: Andre Benoit, Corey Sarich The defense is actually a place where I think the Avs improved over a season ago, the problem is, it's a slight improvement and not nearly enough for a team with a defense that is, legitimately, thought of as one of the weakest in the league. Let's throw some Zone Exit data out there...
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29 days ago  |  Discuss

Avs season preview: Part II - Forwards

Part I was Goalies. This is part II - Forwards  Key Additions -  Jarome Iginla, Danny Briere, Jesse Winchester, Ben Street Key Subtractions - Paul Stastny, PA Parenteau, MA Cliche Let's start the position players with the elephant in the room: The Avs Corsi-tied last season was 22nd in the league. Their Fenwick-tied was 23rd. That's not good, and while it's possible...
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September 15, 2014  |  Discuss

Avs season preview: Part I - Goalies

I've been insanely pessimistic about the Avs season all summer, and I have only revealed the source of my pessimism in bits and pieces over twitter. So I figured I needed to give a comprehensive guide to why I don't think the Avs are going to be very good this season: (and why I'm going to enjoy the season anyways). This is intended to be a 5 part series, but it could...
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September 15, 2014  |  Discuss

The Unreliable Eye Test

Those who argue with Advanced stats usually do so because of the eye test. The general vibe given off in these conversations is that a trained eye is better at evaluation because it can pick up nuance that numbers don't capture.   Here's why I find "the eye test" extremely unreliable, in ove video about a card trick:    
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May 23, 2014  |  Discuss


I've seen people, not just Wild fans, use this picture to say the play leading to the game 5 tieing goal should have been be offsides:     Just for clarification, let's check the NHL rulebook for what constitutes offsides: (emphasis mine) The position of the player’s skates and not that of his stick shall be the determining factor in all instances in deciding an...
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April 27, 2014  |  Discuss

Why I wouldn't vote for Roy for the Adams

This is a pretty contraversial opinion in Avs land, so I better have a pretty good reason and logic to back it up. And I do.  First of all, It's important to note how important Puck Possession (measured with either Corsi or Fenwick) is to a team's success. I don't want to go into a long schpiel on it, but Eric T, one of the best analytics minds in hockey right now,...
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March 11, 2014  |  Discuss

Review of Break Away ice hockey themed slots game

As ice hockey is unquestionably one of the sports with a really big following in both the U.S. and Canada, it really seems surprising that there have not been a greater number of themed casino slot games based on it. The development of Break Away by the very successful Microgaming could well see that change though, as this five reel example of the form is the first such game to be...
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February 17, 2014  |  Discuss

Argumentum ad Antiquitatem

When the injured Jan Hejda was replaced on the top pair with Nate Guenin I was initially boggled at how very smart hockey people, such as Patrick Roy and his staff, can be so wrong about a player or players as he continues to undervalue the contributions of Tyson Barrie. I was listening to my favorite podcast on the internet, You are not so Smart, when the host talked about Argumentum...
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December 07, 2013  |  Discuss

Fraternizing Report: Roy is going to be the new Avs Coach.

Adrian Dater reports, that Stephane Roy's, Patrick Roy's brother, has said that Roy (Patrick, not Stephane) is going to be the next coach of the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs, for their part, are not commenting on it because the organization looked deep into Medusa's eyes years ago rendering them incapable of commenting on anything. I have mixed feelings on whether or...
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May 21, 2013  |  Discuss

Profiles in Potential Coaches

Today AJ over at Mile high Hockey presented an interesting argument for the Avs hiring Dallas Eakins of the Toronto Marlies (the Maples Leafs AHL affiliate) It is an argument that certainly piques my interest. That said, One of the things I really want out of the Avs in this process is a a comprehensive coaching search. In addition to Eakins, I really hope the Avs take a look at...
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May 06, 2013  |  Discuss

Hockey Players Putting Germany on the NHL Map

When one thinks of countries with a strong hockey pedigree, Germany doesn't exactly come first to mind. But thanks to the presence of players such as Uwe Krupp, Marco Sturm, Christian Erhoff, Dennis Seidenberg, Jochen Hecht and Marcel Goc, the European nation is now making an impact in the National Hockey League. They are just some of the few German players who have made a mark...
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March 22, 2013  |  Discuss

An introduction to fancy hockey stats

 Eric at the Flyers blog Broad Street Hockey has recently published a couple nice advanced stats primers as well: Team | Individual As many here have seen here hockey is starting to warm up to fancier statistics. A ton of really smart, advanced statistical analysis has been done by many people over the last 5-8 years that has seen a great deal of new useful statistics (Corsi, OZone...
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March 19, 2013  |  Discuss

No Fancy Stats here

The Avs are currently 20th in Goals/Game with 2.52. Since Feb 1st they have 2.65 G/G which would be a respectable 16th. The Avs are currently 27th in GA/G at 3.07 GA/G. since Feb 1st they have given up 3.25 GA/G which would tie for 29th. On the Season, The Avs goaltending is 11th in ESSV%.The problem with this game is the defense. It's the Defense. It's the Defense.
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March 17, 2013  |  Discuss

Free Tyson Barrie!

CopperandBlue sent me an appropriate clip after I learned Tyson Barrie was being sent down: That about sums it up. Aside from Duchene and Parenteau, Tyson Barrie has been the nicest story for this Avs team, a rookie who was expected to maybe contribute who quickly became one of the Avs best defensemen. Just like that, Avs management/coaching ruin it because old time hockey...
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March 12, 2013  |  Discuss

Final thoughts on the O'Reilly ordeal

Well, that ended rather abruptly. A lot went on, and here's my final thoughts:   The Avalanche had to match I could go into a long detailed post about it, but there's a really good one here by Hockey Prospectus. Bottom line, Calgary is already a better team than their record indicates, and the addition of O'Reilly would have made them even better, making their 1st...
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March 02, 2013  |  Discuss

The Avs immaturity problem

Ian LaPaerriere Andrew Brunette Craig Anderson Chris Stewart Colby Cohen Kyle Quincey Kevin Porter TJ Galiardi Dan Winnik Ryan O'Reilly These were all names that I came up with, off the top of my head, that have had comments or actions that belay some level of criticality with Avs brass over the last few seasons (feel free to add any I missed in the comments). This...
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February 12, 2013  |  Discuss

How Important is O'Reilly to the Avs?

    This graph is the ES Corsi of all Avs players with 50min of time on ice with Ryan O'Rilly last season. Green is CS% with O'Reiily on the ice with them, and Orange is their CS% without them on the ice. (Because Joomla is weird with big pics, here's a link to the full size graph, making it easier to read) On Adrian Dater's podcast today I said I understood...
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February 03, 2013  |  Discuss

The only person who did the right thing in Landeskog hit got 19 minutes of penalties and cost ...

The Brad Stuart hit on Landeskog, and subsequent responses were a full blown comedy of errors. I have a ton of thoughts about the entire ordeal, so let's just take it from the top. If you haven't read this by Travis Hughes, a Flyers blogger, yet please do. It was fantastic. First, here's the hit: Gabriel Landeskog: The kid made the mistake of slightly losing track...
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January 28, 2013  |  Discuss

Oh, O'Reilly

Ryan O'Reilly, the Avs leading scorer from last season, is in a contract dispute with the Avs. On Jan 16th Adrian Dater reported that over the summer the Avs offered Ryno a 5-year deal worth $17M, or $3.4M/season. Well, this information quickly changed the narrative of the Avs being cheap, to Ryan O'Reilly being greedy. Most fans on twitter seemed to think Ryan O'Reilly...
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January 16, 2013  |  Discuss

What the Avs have to do to win me back

The NHL lockout is over so hockey regularly being on my TV is back. However the NHLPA and NHL reaching an agreement hasn't made me forget how awful and unnecessary this lockout, and the length of this lockout, really was. What makes it even more infuriating is this Larry Brooks Tweet: Not to belabor the obvious, but this agreement is suspiciously close to the PA's Dec...
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January 06, 2013  |  Discuss

My 1st Cutthroats game

With the Avs out of action (IR-NHL Stupidity) and Jibblewife and I jonesing for hockey, we grabbed the Munchkin and went to our First Denver Cutthroats game last night. Minor league hockey isn't really something I'm very familiar with, unless you count the 08-09 Avs. Tapeleg has always been the Minor League Hockey savant.Ryan Boulding over at Hockey on the Rocks and Cheryl...
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November 04, 2012  |  Discuss

What about Gaunce, Barrie & Elliott

With the Avs having about 25 NHL ready defensemen in their mix right now, I see some people a bit anxious about what happens to Cameron Guance, Tyson Barrie, and Stephan Elliott. I wouldn't worry too much. They three of them are 22, 20 & 21 years of age, respectively. Very young for defensemen.I did some research on Defensemen this weekend for the last two blog posts, and...
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July 02, 2012  |  Discuss

Statistical Profile: Greg Zanon

Greg Zanon was the Avs second* move in the 2012 free agency day, but he's going to be the first guy I profile. (*Matt Carkner excepted)Let's start with some basics and work our way into the advanced stuff. Zanon's a difficult one to profile, since he was on two teams, sites like  don't do as well with players who played for 2 teams. Zanon's career...
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July 02, 2012  |  Discuss

Avs man meat acquisitions 2012

Better late than never eh? I'll make this brief. As of 10:00pm the night of June 30th, the Avs have $14M they have to spend on players. They also have 4 RFAs (O'Reilly, Johnson, Olver, McGinn). While they could spend $14M on those 4 (Johnson at $6M, O'Reilly at $5M, McGinn and Olver at $1.5M. Yes it's an overpayment, but in a world where David Jones gets $4M it'...
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July 01, 2012  |  Discuss
Jibblescribbits is a Colorado Avalanche blog that specializes in Numerical Analysis, Rational Opinion, Irrational Opinion, and Snark. Occasional I apply those same characteristics to the NHL at large. I've been blogging since Feb '07, and an Avs fan since '95.
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