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Australian Open best bets: Looking ahead to the semifinals

By Alyssa Clang | Last updated 1/24/24

We've made it to the semifinals of the Australian Open! This Best Bets missive comes to you bleary-eyed and exhausted, courtesy of two straight nights of overnight quarterfinals. (However tired we are, though, poor Taylor Fritz is definitely feeling it more.)

The quarterfinals showcased a little bit of everything we love about the Open: Djokovic’s incredible endurance, Coco Gauff’s ability to find winners even when nothing seems to be going her way, Aryna Sabalenka’s smile, Daniil Medvedev’s omnipresent gold chain, and even a brilliant qualifier run from unheralded Ukrainian Dayana Yastremska. Just eight athletes remain in the men’s and women’s singles competitions, and the stage is set for four intriguing semifinals.

Here's what we’re keeping an eye on as the Australian Open rolls on:

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Jannik Sinner (4). Immovable object, meet unstoppable force. Djokovic is 10-0 in Australian Open semifinals but young Sinner has yet to lose a single set at this tournament. He’s got a great recent record against Djokovic, too; Sinner won three of the four matches these two played last fall. If anyone can stop Djokovic’s march to an 11^th Australian Open title, it’s him.

We think Sinner has looked calmer and more in control than Djokovic so far in Australia, but … it’s Djokovic, and it’s Australia. As much as we’d like to see the Italian sneak a win here, we think he’ll perform similarly to Fritz in the quarters: come out strong and fade after losing a few crucial tiebreaks. We see Djokovic taking this one in four sets at +275.

Aryna Sabalenka (2) vs. Coco Gauff (4). This match was always fated to happen — it’s the marquee event of the semifinals, With Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina eliminated from the other side of the women’s draw, with all due respect to Yastremska and Zheng, it’s more of a final than the actual final. The winner of this one is highly favored to take home the title.

We’ve been big backers of Gauff taking home her second consecutive Grand Slam since before the Open began, but after her less-than-stellar performance against Marta Kostyuk in the quarters we’re starting to lose a bit of faith. Gauff’s victory here is still tasty at +162, but we’re inclined to back Sabalenka to take this one in three sets at +260.

Daniil Medvedev (3) vs. Alexander Zverev (6). Medvedev's journey to the semis wasn't as smooth as he would've like it to be; the Russian struggled mightily against Emil Ruusuvuori in the second round and Hubert Hurkacz in the quarters. In both matches Medvedev got into his own head and battled through long stretches of mediocrity. But for every set he played as if the weight of his own frustration was strung across his shoulders, Medvedev played a brilliant one — just look at his dismantling of Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Zerev's path to the semis is similarly rocky, but it seems to have spiked in a positive direction against world number two Carlos Alcaraz last night. He's got most of the momentum working in his favor, but he hates Medvedev and the Russian has the edge on him in all competitions. In this intriguing battle between two emotional players, we're backing Medvedev to win in five at +400.

Qinwen Zheng (15) vs. Dayana Yastremska (93). This is the wild-card matchup of the semis, the "how did we even get here" meeting between two talented women no one expected to make it. But early departures for Swiatek and Rybakina, plus steady, consistent performances from Zheng and Yastremska, earned them this spot fair and square. Anything could happen here, and we can't wait to see how these two women match up.

Zheng is the clear favorite to win at -225. But we've loved Yastremska's exuberant progress throughout this tournament and can't help but think she's got another upset in her. She's the first "qualifier" player —someone who has to play their way into the Open rather than simply be seeded — to make it to the AO semifinals in 46 years. What's one more win against stats like that? At +175 to take this one in any number of sets, we're cheering on the Yastremska for this one.

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