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A’ja Wilson (22) of the Las Vegas Aces poses for a portrait during the team’s media day at Vu Studios. (Photo by Candice Ward/Getty Images)

WNBA best bets: Expert picks, player props, prediction for Opening Night 5/14

Originally posted on Action Network | Last updated 5/14/24

The 28th season of the WNBA tips off tonight with four matchups on deck. The stars set the stage as the New York Liberty get the honor of first tip as they seek another chance at the Finals with their first assignment in D.C. against the Mystics.

From there, the star-studded action keeps rolling as Caitlin Clark makes her official debut for the regular season for the Indiana Fever as they take on Alyssa Thomas and the Connecticut Sun at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN 2.

And you know it couldn't be opening night without the defending champs hitting the scene with A'ja Wilson and company looking for a three-peat in their 2024 campaign with the Phoenix Mercury up first on their schedule in a 10 p.m. ET tip on ESPN 2. We'll also have the Minnesota Lynx facing the new-look Seattle Storm as we're pretty sure you don't want to miss any of these matchups.

Our experts were player prop heavy for the season opener, so without further ado, let's get to the WNBA best bets and expert picks for today.

Fever vs. Sun

Tuesday, May 14, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN 2
Caitlin Clark under 21.5 points (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

I know, I know, I'm going to hell.

But I've written here across multiple stories that I think Caitlin Clark is going to be great, but I don't expect huge scoring totals immediately. I do think we'll see plenty of games exceeding 20 or more points, but I don't think it'll be what she averages … rookies don't walk into the WNBA and just do that.

The Connecticut Sun were the best defensive team in the league last season and have been top two for four straight seasons. I think the Clark scoring market is still inflated, and will be until she is properly placed in the 17.5 or so range.

Unless she just starts going nuts from the start, and then I'll gladly shut up about it.

(Like her assist overs, though.)

Pick: Caitlin Clark under 21.5 points

Mercury vs. Aces

Tuesday, May 14, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN 2
A'ja Wilson over 9.5 rebounds (DraftKings)

By Jim Turvey

The WNBA season starts on Tuesday night and there are more betting markets than ever before for fans of the W.

And somehow my favorite of the whole bunch is an over on the best player in the league! Typically there isn't room for betting on the best players in the league, but on Opening Night in Vegas, there is.

Wilson draws one of the softest matchups available, but the books haven't adjusted. Her opponent, the Phoenix Mercury, are going to get rocked on the glass all season. They have one legitimate center, and may well start a super small lineup each and every game. However, that discrepancy is even crazier for opening night, as Brittney Griner has been ruled out with a fractured toe.

A tiny frontcourt to start with now will likely be relying on Morgan Bertsch and Natasha Mack to slow down the two-time MVP. I mean this in the most respectable way possible … but Wilson might go for 40 points and 20 rebounds.

The biggest fear is that the Aces get out to a massive lead (as is their standard), and that they rest their starters fora chunk of time in the fourth quarter. However, given the size and skill difference between Wilson and her point of attack defenders on Tuesday, this line could be reached by ease by the time that comes around.

I would bet this to over 12.5 rebounds, and I love her escalators as well, should the books post: 15+ rebounds, etc.