Fever vs. Sun: A surprising prop for Caitlin Clark's WNBA debut

Indiana Fever

My Clark fades aren't simply Haterade for the biggest name in the sport. There is historical precedence for how challenging the transition to the WNBA is, especially for guards. I wrote about the history of top drafted guards transitioning to the W over the offseason, and the most telling part of my research was the team win-loss. In the time period assessed (past 15 years), not a single guard taken in the top three had played for a team with more than 14 wins in their rookie season.

Now, I actually do have the Fever projected to go over that number, in part because I think Clark is a better prospect than all of those guard prospects over the past 15 years, and also because she is coming to to a team closer to contention than any of the others. In Aliyah Boston, she has the No. 1 pick from last year, and a player who ranked sixth in the league in PER and seventh in the league in win shares in her rookie season. 

She’s also joined by NaLyssa Smith (the No. 2 overall pick in 2022 who averaged 15.5 ppg last year), and Kelsey Mitchell (18.1 ppg over her past four seasons). The roster is talented, and the long-term future couldn’t be brighter.

However, in the short-term, this is a team being priced nearly on par with the Sun on opening night. I would have the Sun -7.5.

Connecticut Sun

This Sun team looks a little different than the last time we saw them, when they bowed out in the WNBA semifinals against the New York Liberty, 3-1.

Back for Connecticut is Briona Jones, who ranked third in the WNBA in win shares in her last full season (2022). She is one of the most efficient players in the game, which will be a massive help for Alyssa Thomas, who finished third in the MVP vote last season, but struggled with efficiency at times. 

The Sun still have Thomas’ wife, DeWanna Bonner, lining up at the three. Bonner is also doing a bit of a Benjamin Button thing, coming off her best seasons in years at the age of 35.

It’s the backcourt where the Sun face the most questions, with Tiffany Hayes retired and Natisha Hiedeman off to Minnesota. In their place will likely be a combination of Tiffany Mitchell, Moriah Jefferson, Tyasha Harris and DiJonai Carrington. There is skill there, but there are also unknowns, and no ceiling as high as Hayes’ in my opinion. 

However, the return of Jones is enough to mostly offset the backcourt losses when it comes to power rating the Sun. I have them as around a +3 net rating side as we start the season (they were 27-13 with a +4.4 net rating last season). The Fever, I make around -1.5, especially as the pieces still have to come together. If we add in three points for home court on opening night (adjusted up a tiny bit from standard 2.5 points), we get to that 7.5 number that I make this game. 

Fever vs. Sun

Betting Pick & Prediction

As such, I will be on the Sun -5.5, and would still lean that way at -6.5. 

Ironically, it’s a player prop under for Connecticut that is my favorite bet for this game. I'll potentially be looking to fade Thomas’s rebounds and points+rebounds+assists based on the numbers the books post. 

Jones being back should eat notably into both Thomas's points and rebounds and, per pbpstats.com, her assists actually aren’t positively correlated with Jones being back, because it’s just less usage overall for Thomas.

Pick: Sun -5.5 | Alyssa Thomas Under PRA