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WNBA semifinals preview: Will the rust show for Lynx, Sparks?

The new WNBA playoff format caused a lot of consternation, frustration and, very much for the Phoenix Mercury, jubilation. Seattle, the hottest team entering the playoffs, was bounced. Indiana, with future Hall of Famer Tamika Catchings calling it a career, couldn’t make one last title run for league’s greatest ambassador. Atlanta couldn’t light up the scoreboard enough for two elimination games in a row. And with one game and a shorthanded roster, the New York Liberty remains the WNBA’s perennial bridesmaid despite being the best team in the Eastern Conference all year long.

Yet the Chicago Sky, a team almost left for dead without its biggest star and MVP, survived the single-elimination battle with a spirited second-round win. Both Phoenix and Chicago moved on into two best-of-five semifinals series (no longer Conference Finals in this format) against teams that have been waiting nearly two weeks to remind WNBA fans why they were the best in the league since the 20th season tipped off in May.

Here's what you need to know about these matchups.

(8) Phoenix Mercury vs. (1) Minnesota Lynx

Though technically the remaining playoff teams have been reseeded, the new format was designed to give the lowest seeds better chances at making it to the Finals while simultaneously making the next tier teams a little hot under the collar. That’s exactly what the Mercury did as the eight seed, winning consecutive elimination games on the road in Indiana and New York to set up a date with the defending champs.

Two things are abundantly clear with the Mercury so far in the playoffs. One, just like in the NBA, the concept of having a "closer" blended within a fluid, team-oriented offense flourishes when you have an all-time great like Diana Taurasi. The inside-out game between her and either Penny Taylor or Brittney Griner on the low blocks worked brilliantly against a willing but outgunned Liberty defense.

Two, a shortened rotation can make for somewhat better decision-making when a team’s collective back is against the wall. Though the Mercury turned the ball over 16 times against the Fever, against New York its 11 turnovers were 2.8 below its regular-season average. With just eight rotation players hitting the court as opposed all 12, coach Sandy Brondello ensured that her best players had every critical possession in two elimination games. (Somewhat of a luxury Liberty coach and Detroit Pistons legend Bill Laimbeer wished he had.)

There’s almost a clichéd sports question about momentum and wondering how it can carry over into a full best-of-five series. Yet, there’s something to that as now the Mercury will play the first two games of the series in Minneapolis. That matters because the Minnesota Lynx have been the best home team in the WNBA by far since 2011 with an 88-14 regular-season record and a 20-2 playoff record (only home losses during that run were to Indiana in the 2012 and 2015 Finals, series the Lynx won). It also matters because Minnesota swept the season series 3-0, although in all fairness, those games took place in the first month of the season.

The Lynx, meanwhile, haven’t played a game since a win over the Atlanta Dream back on Sept. 17. With the double bye into the semifinals, it’ll be worth keeping an eye on how long it takes for the team to get into the sync and pace of playing an opposing team instead of against each other at practice. Perhaps it takes no time at all as was the case when they won six of their eight post-Olympic games with the two losses in Connecticut and Chicago by a combined three points.

In almost every conceivable metric, the Lynx are a cut above the rest of the league. From traditional per-game averages in scoring, points allowed, rebounds and more to advanced metrics on pace and efficiency, Minnesota’s season totals this year are significantly better than its opponents. In the early part of the year, the Lynx faced a Mercury team that was trying to gel with Taurasi making her return to the league after playing overseas in 2015. Yet in this fourth playoff matchup between the two teams in the last six years, the Lynx will see a far different Mercury team than they did back in the middle of spring.

Taurasi, Griner and Taylor versus Maya Moore, Seimone Augustus and Sylvia Fowles for at least three games? Count me in.

(4) Chicago Sky vs. (2) Los Angeles Sparks

Speaking of premier individual players, there are still a few in the other semifinal, although the spotlight is somewhat dimmed with the uncertain availability of Elena Delle Donne. Thumb surgery forced last year’s MVP to miss the final six games of the regular season as well as the Sky’s second-round win over the Atlanta Dream. Yet, the Sky soldiered on with a 4-2 record without EDD because this team is anything but devoid of talent.

Chicago threw everything it possibly could at Atlanta's Angel McCoughtry, who finished with 27, but only made nine of her 21 field goal attempts to get her points. Yet, even while managing to slow her down, Chicago still struggled to contain Tiffany Hayes, who dropped 30. The 108-98 win was a testament to how much the Sky’s various role players came through as all 10 players who appeared in the game scored, with seven of them scoring at least eight points.

While Cappie Pondexter had an off night (6-for-15 for 16 points), superb play from Courtney Vandersloot, Tamera Young, Imani Boyette and Jessica Breland paced Chicago. Despite foul trouble and four turnovers, Vandersloot stayed assertive as she was a +14 on the floor with 21 points, 14 assists and four steals. Holding court in the paint, Boyette and Breland combined for 27 rebounds and nine blocks, and Boyette added 16 points with an efficient midrange game.

The Los Angeles Sparks are an interesting in that there's nothing remotely flashy about them, yet whatever it is, it was successful enough to have run through almost every team in the league with ease except for, you guessed it, Minnesota. The Sparks are the most efficient shooting team in the WNBA, tending to milk their possessions a little more than other teams but getting greater returns. Advanced metrics show that the Sparks have the league’s highest effective shooting percentage, highest true shooting percentage and second-highest player impact estimate. All of that sounds Greek to you until you understand a simple reason behind those high ranks for a team that barely sits in the upper half of the league in most offensive categories.

That reason is the newly named WNBA MVP Nneka Ogwumike. With an incredibly deft interior game, Ogwumike shot the second-best field goal percentage for a full season in league history (66.5 percent), leading the Sparks with a career-high 19.7 points and 9.1 rebounds per game. Her greatest contribution was lifting the offensive burden off of the face of the franchise and former MVP Candace Parker, who was able to play fewer minutes throughout the season in order to be primed for a playoff run.

Los Angeles isn’t solely reliant on Ogwumike or Parker — in fact, the strong interior play from the power forward and center means that opportunities widen for Essence Carson and Kristi Toliver. Carson, after eight years in New York, played and started every game in a season for the first time in four years, and though in a lesser role with the Sparks, she was able to post some of her best stats since her prime Liberty days. Toliver is one of the better, unheralded point guards in the league whose 13.2 points per game are her best since 2012 while she’s cut down significantly on her turnovers and fouls, keeping her in sync with the Sparks’ frontcourt for more minutes.

The Atlanta game proved that Chicago has much more depth than initially thought without Delle Donne, although even that was tested because, except for Pondexter, each of the remaining starters had at least four fouls. Despite the Sky’s balanced offense, the kitchen sink defense will be a lot harder to execute against the Sparks’ loaded frontcourt for at least three games. Where slowing down McCoughtry left Hayes open, it’ll be a case of picking a poison between the new and the former MVP. Boyette and Breland with have to contend with either Ogwumike or Parker on nearly every possession. That sounds like a tough business trip to L.A.

Can you name every WNBA team?
SCORE:
0/12
TIME:
5:00
Eastern
Atlanta Dream
Eastern
Chicago Sky
Eastern
Connecticut Sun
Eastern
Indiana Fever
Eastern
New York Liberty
Eastern
Washington Mystics
Western
Dallas Wings
Western
Las Vegas Aces
Western
Los Angeles Sparks
Western
Minnesota Lynx
Western
Phoenix Mercury
Western
Seattle Storm

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