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Naoya Inoue vs Ye Joon Kim: Who Wins?

Originally posted on Fights Around The World
By Liahm O'Brien | Last updated Jan 22, 2025 2:52 PM ET

Friday’s meeting between undisputed super bantamweight king Naoya Inoue (28-0, 25 KOs) and late replacement challenger Ye Joon Kim (21-2-2, 13 KOs) at Tokyo’s Ariake Arena presents a boxing tale as old as the sport itself.

In one corner, a dominant champion who has captivated boxing fans across the globe with scintillating hand speed and punching power. A fighter whose in-ring hiccups have been far outweighed by an ability to seek and destroy every opponent put in front of him. Standing opposite, an unlikely challenger taking the bout with just 13 days notice after the withdrawal of Australia’s Sam Goodman. An underdog with a story mixed with triumph and tragedy, of which the heartaches would not be out of place on the silver screens of Hollywood.

It is true that not all of these scenarios play out the way they are supposed to. Often, it is the boxer with their back to the wall that sets the sport ablaze with a tremendous upset, something acknowledged by Inoue promoter Bob Arum. “I don’t want to predict anything or get anybody alarmed, but in my 60, 70 years in boxing, I have seen very often a substitute fighter come in and to everybody’s astonishment, he pulls an upset,” he said at Wednesday’s press conference.

In this case, however, logic suggests that the hill should be one too steep to climb, with the step up in class for Kim being too big of a bridge to gap.

Inoue A Class Above His Peers

The qualifying factor that has set Inoue apart from his contemporaries has been his versatility. What “The Monster” has shown in 28 contests to date is that he has the capacity to dominate the terms of a fight, regardless of how the action ensues. Whether he is pressured into fighting on the back foot, met by an opponent on the inside, or stalking wounded prey, there is always a sense of comfortability on display. To that end, there is an opportunism to Inoue’s craft in that he is prone to pounce on the opening that presents itself.

For evidence, look no further than the stretch of three knockouts over Stephen Fulton Jr, Marlon Tapales and Luis Nery from July 2023 to May 2024. Though each were methodical, calculated and resulted in trademark knockout power being applied, all were the crescendo of a different set of circumstances within the fight.

In the eyes of Arum, such an ability places Inoue in a class of his own, away from both peers and all-time greats alike. “He has gone through one division after another,” he surmised. “In Inoue, we have not only a ferocious knockout puncher but a very, very well-trained technical fighter.” Friday’s contest appears to be another case of rinse and repeat for the 31-year-old future hall of famer.

Ye Joon Kim: The Loveable Underdog

In most minds, anyone willing to step into the ring with Inoue is following nothing short of a recipe for disaster. However, one distinct characteristic differentiates WBO number 11 contender Ye Joon Kim from the pack. The 32-year-old Korean has been fighting his whole life.

“Many of you wouldn’t know that Joon is an orphan,” manager Mike Altamura said on Wednesday. He was raised in an orphanage; he was never adopted. He was undersized as a kid. He was viciously bullied throughout his upbringing, and yet here he is on the biggest stage of the world. From the orphanage to the undisputed world championship. I think that that is an incredible accomplishment, and it speaks volumes about the kind of person he is.”

It is easy to see why the unheralded challenger could go in with a fearless mentality. What is a fight with one of the pound-for-pound best in the sport when you’ve had to scrape, claw and earn everything you have? As Teddy Atlas famously opined, Kim has “36 minutes to make life fair” by registering an upset that will loom large in boxing’s storied history for centuries to come. Still, he has not fought anyone with anywhere near the prowess of Inoue. To pull off a victory, Kim will need to eclipse his previous efforts, bringing every ounce of his high-volume, counter-punching best.

Naoya Inoue vs Ye Joon Kim Prediction

While many pundits and fans have praised the valor of Kim for stepping in at the last minute, the matchup seems one that is tailor-made for Inoue. For as many sharp counters as the physically strong Seoul native has landed, he has shown an equal tendency to stay flat-footed with lowered hands in mid and close-range exchanges. Although Kim’s heart, toughness and will to fight may create an exciting contest, I expect it will only be for as long as it lasts.

Prediction: Inoue by fifth-round knockout