2026 SEC Championship odds updated after Week 3

The SEC championship race is beginning to take shape following another consequential weekend across the conference. Polymarket traders have updated their positions after Week 3, with Georgia and Texas separating themselves from the rest of the field entering another major slate of games.

Alabama remains the clear No. 3 option in the market, while Florida and Ole Miss have each moved into the next tier after impressive starts. LSU still carries meaningful odds despite its loss at Ole Miss, while several undefeated teams remain further down the board as traders wait for stronger evidence.

The picture could shift dramatically this weekend with Texas visiting Tennessee, Ole Miss traveling to Florida and Oklahoma facing Georgia in Athens. Here’s how all 16 SEC teams stack up in the latest Polymarket odds to win the conference championship. Check it out below.

Vanderbilt — 2%

Vanderbilt sits at 2% in the Polymarket SEC championship market despite opening the season 3-0 under an emerging freshman quarterback. Jared Curtis threw for 277 yards and three touchdowns in his first collegiate start, helping the Commodores rally past NC State 35-31 after entering the fourth quarter down 10 points.

The ‘Dores have shown legitimate progress, but traders are still asking for more before taking a stronger position on the Commodores as an SEC title contender. A road matchup at Auburn provides the next opportunity to change that perception.

Kentucky — 2%

Kentucky remains at 2% despite producing one of the biggest results of Week 3 with a 31-21 road victory over Texas A&M. Kenny Minchey has thrown seven touchdowns against only one interception this season, while Texas transfer CJ Baxter has provided Will Stein’s offense with another reliable weapon in the backfield.

The Wildcats are already 1-1 in conference play after facing Alabama and Texas A&M, giving traders more meaningful information than many teams have accumulated through three weeks. Even so, the market remains cautious about Kentucky’s chances of navigating the entire SEC schedule and reaching Atlanta.

Texas A&M — 2%

Texas A&M has fallen to 2% after suffering a damaging 31-21 home loss against Kentucky in its SEC opener. The Aggies allowed 21 third-quarter points and never fully recovered, while quarterback Marcel Reed finished with 236 passing yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.

There’s still enough talent on the roster for Texas A&M to alter the market quickly, but the margin for error has already become considerably smaller. A trip to LSU now presents a major opportunity for the Aggies to regain some momentum and give traders a reason to reconsider their position.

Oklahoma — 2%

Oklahoma also checks in at 2% as the Sooners prepare to enter SEC play with one of the league’s most unusual profiles. Brent Venables’ defense leads the conference in scoring defense at only 7.67 points allowed per game, but Oklahoma ranks last in total offense and is averaging just 25 points.

The Sooners survived New Mexico 14-6 in Week 3, leaning heavily on their defense to compensate for another frustrating offensive performance. Traders will learn much more this weekend when Oklahoma travels to Georgia for one of the toughest possible introductions to conference play.

Arkansas — 2%

Arkansas carries a 2% chance to win the SEC after falling to 1-2 with a 45-17 loss against Georgia. The Razorbacks currently rank last in the conference in both scoring offense and scoring defense, a combination that explains why the Polymarket outlook remains so limited.

Arkansas has already faced significant adversity early in the season and now needs to find stability before the schedule becomes even more difficult. Tulsa comes next, giving the Razorbacks a chance to reset, but traders currently see a long path back into legitimate SEC championship contention.

South Carolina — 3%

South Carolina sits at 3% after losing 41-34 at home against Mississippi State and dropping to 2-1 overall. The Gamecocks still rank fourth in the SEC in total offense, but their defense could not contain Kamario Taylor and the Bulldogs when the game tightened in the second half.

South Carolina has enough offensive production to remain dangerous, yet the early conference loss has made its road to Atlanta more complicated. The next test is even tougher, with a trip to Alabama giving the Gamecocks an immediate opportunity to create a major swing in the prediction market.

Mississippi State — 3%

Mississippi State has climbed into the conversation after a surprising 3-0 start, but Polymarket traders still give the Bulldogs only a 3% chance to capture the SEC championship. Sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor has emerged as one of the league’s breakout players, ranking second in the SEC with 277.33 passing yards per game after throwing four touchdowns against South Carolina.

The Bulldogs have already earned notable wins over Minnesota and South Carolina, providing more evidence that their start is legitimate. Consistency will be the next test, beginning with a home matchup against unbeaten Missouri.

Missouri — 3%

Missouri also owns a 3% chance as Eli Drinkwitz’s team enters Week 4 unbeaten at 3-0. The Tigers already have a rivalry victory over Kansas, while Ole Miss transfer Austin Simmons has shown enough early promise to keep the offense moving alongside Missouri’s dependable rushing attack.

Defensively, the Tigers rank fourth in the SEC against the pass, giving them another strength that could translate as conference play becomes more difficult. Traders have not yet moved aggressively toward Missouri, but a road victory at Mississippi State would add another useful piece of knowledge to the market.

Auburn — 3%

Auburn remains at 3% after suffering its first loss of the season, falling 44-39 at home against Florida. The Tigers were productive enough offensively to remain within striking distance, but their defense has become a major concern after slipping to last in the SEC in total yards allowed.

Alex Golesh’s team now has less room for error after opening conference play with a defeat, especially with more difficult opponents still ahead. Vanderbilt comes to Auburn next, making the matchup an important opportunity for the Tigers to steady themselves before traders push them further down the board.

Tennessee — 4%

Tennessee is receiving 4% of the SEC championship market as the Volunteers enter their biggest test of the season at 3-0. Josh Heupel’s team ranks inside the top four of the conference in both scoring offense and scoring defense, while freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon has continued to settle into the starting role without throwing an interception.

The schedule to this point has not answered every question, which helps explain the relatively modest odds despite the unbeaten record. That changes immediately when Texas arrives in Knoxville, giving Tennessee an opportunity to dramatically improve its position with traders.

LSU — 6%

LSU falls to 6% after losing 32-24 at Ole Miss in Lane Kiffin’s return to Oxford. The Tigers fell behind 24-7 at halftime before making the game competitive, but Ole Miss held LSU to 330 total yards and handed Kiffin his first defeat with the program.

Sam Leavitt has shown flashes through three games, though consistency remains a concern as the Tigers attempt to stay in the SEC championship race. Polymarket traders have not abandoned LSU, but Saturday’s home matchup against Texas A&M now carries additional importance for a team already sitting at 0-1 in league play.

Ole Miss — 7%

Ole Miss has climbed to 7% after adding a signature 32-24 victory over LSU to an already impressive early résumé. Trinidad Chambliss leads the SEC at 308 passing yards per game while completing 70% of his attempts, and his late rushing touchdown against LSU provided another example of his ability to deliver in critical situations.

The concern comes defensively, where Ole Miss ranks 15th in total defense and last in the SEC against the run. Traders are clearly respecting the Rebels’ results, but a road trip to undefeated Florida offers another major test of whether their rise can continue.

Florida — 7%

Florida matches Ole Miss at 7% after improving to 3-0 with a 44-39 road victory over Auburn. The Gators own the SEC’s No. 2 scoring offense, and running back Jadan Baugh has been one of the league’s most productive players with 458 rushing yards on 54 carries, 158 more yards than anyone else in the conference.

Aaron Philo has also helped make Florida dangerous through the air, with Vernell Brown III and Dallas Wilson both ranking among the SEC’s leading receivers. Saturday’s home game against Ole Miss gives traders a direct opportunity to separate two teams currently carrying identical championship odds.

Alabama — 9%

Alabama sits alone in third at 9% after improving to 3-0 with a 50-36 victory over Florida State. Freshman quarterback Keelon Russell delivered his best performance yet, throwing for 320 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for another score as the Crimson Tide offense continued to find another gear.

Alabama ranks third in the SEC in scoring at 47.67 points per game, although Kalen DeBoer has repeatedly emphasized the need to avoid slow starts. Traders still see a sizable gap between Alabama and the top two, but another stretch of strong performances could close it quickly.

Texas — 26%

Texas owns a 26% chance to win the SEC championship after remaining unbeaten with a 30-6 victory over UTSA. Arch Manning threw for 164 yards and two touchdowns while adding 50 rushing yards, and the Longhorns continue to lean on a defense that ranks second in the conference in scoring.

Texas already owns a major early-season win over Ohio State, giving traders a meaningful data point when evaluating Steve Sarkisian’s team against other national contenders. The market will receive another one this weekend when the Longhorns head to Neyland Stadium for a major road test against Tennessee.

Georgia — 31%

Georgia leads the Polymarket SEC championship market at 31% after cruising to a 45-17 win over Arkansas and improving to 3-0. The Bulldogs are averaging 59.33 points per game while allowing an SEC-best 211.33 yards per contest, creating one of the most balanced statistical profiles in the conference.

Gunner Stockton has been efficient through the opening weeks and added 97 rushing yards against Arkansas, giving Kirby Smart another dimension at quarterback. Georgia has not yet faced the strongest part of its schedule, but traders currently give the Bulldogs the edge over every other SEC team heading into their matchup with Oklahoma.

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