Oscar Predictions 2023: What will win vs. what should win

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Why?: 

In a novelist twist, this has become the easiest decision of the night. After settting a rercord for most wins at SAG and winning at the Globes, Everything Everywhere All at Once has become the front-runner at this year's Academy Awards. Even though it's a film with a fanny pack and a few thousand dimensions, it's a movie that spoke to voters more than any other film this year. Maybe the voters have entered another dimension? Or maybe they've finally come to their senses? Whatever the case may be, we're here for it. 

Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinhart, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinhart, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Why?: 

This movie has been winning everything everywhere all at once. From the critic's groups to the Golden Globes, nothing has been able to stop this unmovable force of a picture. Maybe the folks at the Academy will see things differently, but we're pretty sure they'll be giving the Daniels a statue on ceremony night. 

Will Win: Austin Butler, Elvis

Should Win: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Why?: 

Wise men say only fools don't love Elvis. Both the movie and the musician are about as catchy as they come. That being said, we have a soft spot for the performance of Colin Farell in The Banshees of Inisherin. While he may not be as flashy as Butler, he breaks your heart with a steady stream of empathy that starts out slow and then builds into something profound. 

Will Win: Cate Blanchett, Tar 

Should Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Why?: 

One of these ladies conducts a symphony with their hands. The other conducts a symphony with their eyes, heart and soul. Michelle Yeoh may not be the favorite on Oscar night, but no other actress was able to pull off what she does here. 

Will Win: Key Hu Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Should Win: Key Hu Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Why?: 

Though this category often goes to the biggest name in Hollywood (Brad Pitt, Anthony Hopkins), it seems destined to go to a name we haven't heard in a while. In the years since he starred in Goonies and Indiana Jones, Key Hu Quan has been out of the business for good. But then he got the call to play Yeoh's husband in Everything Everywhere All at Once, and now seems ready to become the next big star.

Will Win: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Should Win: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Why? 

Jessie Buckley was recognized by critics' groups for her performance in Woman Talking, but once the awards shows began, Bassett became the clear front-runner. Her performance would be the first Marvel lead ever to win, making her more than just another contender on ceremony night. 

Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Why?: 

Justice for Martin McDonagh! After a number of snubs in the past--including for the great In Bruges--the writer-director should finally be collecting an Oscar for his masterful portrayal of a drunken nightmare. Not since Three Billboards has a black comedy been this black or this comedic. 

Will Win: Women Talking 

Should Win: Women Talking 

Why?: 

You'd have to be a degenerate to bet against Women Talking in this category. In the past few months, it's won every award in the adapted screenplay race dating back to early critic's groups. Plus, it's a chance for the Academy to recognize women after they were left out of the director's race entirely.   

Will Win: Pinocchio

Should Win: Pinocchio 

Why?:

This should be a no-brainer, since voters often gravitate toward films in this category with recognizable names. Pinocchio has the great Guillermo del Toro behind it, along with enough stars to fill a galaxy. A story with a title like Pinocchio should help as well.  

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front 

Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front 

Why?:

All Quiet on the Western Front has won more awards than most films this year, and it shares a title with a seminal classic, which previously won Best Picture in 1930. It took home nine nominations and 11 BAFTAs, which is to say nothing of the awards its won earlier this year. It's poized to win a few more on Oscar night, giving every other title in this category shellshock. 

Will Win: Navalny 

Should Win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Why?:

This race is filled with worthy contenders, including All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, which was my favorite documentary of 2022. But that doc is up against a juggernaut of front runners, and here, that No. 1 pick has got to be the story of a Russian politician who was poisoned by Putin and lived to see another day. Navalny is about as timely as any doc I've seen and, therefore must be considered the front-runner. 

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front 

Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Why?: 

All Quiet on the Western Front is basically a less-cool version of 1917. But then again, any movie that has Dolley shots through trenches and crane shots through battlefields has got to be considered a front-runner. Another thing helping Western Front is the hype around it. Since when do war movies get this many nominations? Since they started using their camera as a weapon. 

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Why?: 

There's only one movie in this category that turns a fanny pack into a weapon. Through the power of editing, you can stitch together a fight using any item--and we mean any item-- and make it look like the coolest thing ever. Obviously, the actors aren't actually fighting with fanny packs, though you wouldn't know it from watching this film.