The current ESPN FPI rankings would place Tennessee and QB Joey Aguilar into the Playoff. Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN predicts which teams will make College Football Playoff following Week 1

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By Joe Cox | Last updated Sep 2, 2025 10:03 AM ET

After a wild opening week of college football, ESPN's FPI offers a new statistical picture of the College Football Playoff. Sure, Alabama is long gone, but Tennessee is in the projected field and the SEC would end up with five teams in the 12-team playoff.

Part of ESPN's math-driven ratings system is a percentage change that a certain team will qualify for the College Football Playoff. Here's a rundown of the Index's top squads after Week 1, including the percentage chance that each will earn a CFP spot. Of course, there's more in play than just the top-ranked teams, and this potential CFP considers ESPN's FPI chances before the squads' actual current rankings.

The Top Four (the bye teams)

A year ago, the top four conference champions earned byes, but that provision is gone and the teams ranked 1-4 now earn bye slots, even if three of them are from the same conference. Here's that top four.

1. Ohio State (currently third in rankings, but best CFP shot at 81.6%)

Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

2. Georgia (second ranked, and second in odds with an 80.6% CFP)

3. Texas (still ranked first, but now third in odds at 69.7%)

4. Ole Miss (65.9%)

The rest of the field... and the potential CFP first-round matchups

The CFP still has to feature the five top-ranked league champions, so these projections include an ACC and a Group of Five team even though they're outside the Top 12 in overall percentage. Somebody from those leagues has to make it, so here's the early guess and the way these team would align with the other at-large qualifiers.

5. Penn State (58.4%) vs. 12. TCU (Most likely Big 12 team, 26.6% chance)

6. Oregon (57.0%) vs. 11. Tulane (The most likely 5th conference winner 30.8% chance)

7, USC (56.5%) vs. 10. Miami (Most likely ACC team, 46.7% chance)

8. Tennessee (49.1%) vs. 9. LSU (47.8% chance)

The top teams currently outside this potential CFP are South Carolina (43.0%) and Notre Dame (32.0%). Yes, obviously both of those teams have better chances than Tulane or TCU, but with five conference champions set in the field, this is the logical alignment of ESPN's current FPI odds.

This article first appeared on CFB-HQ on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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