Expectations for Senators’ Nikolas Matinpalo in 2025-26

It’s clear that the Senators are not willing to let any sense of complacency set in amongst their players and are instilling this message to bring about healthy competition, especially on the roster’s fringes. Not only that, but there are also new obstacles standing in Matinpalo’s way. The Senators brought back right-shot defenseman Lassi Thomson and then traded for Los Angeles Kings defenseman Jordan Spence on NHL Entry Draft day. On top of that is Carter Yakemchuk, the club’s first-round pick from last year who’s hungry to prove himself as NHL ready.

All of this means that Matinpalo has his work cut out for him, especially if Nick Jensen is healthy and ready to start the season. Beating out those players for a job will most likely be a tougher challenge than leaping over two players whose stock had fallen off greatly. It will be up to Matinpalo to trust his own game and stay in the headspace that led to success for him last season.

He still has plenty of learning to do but given how much he accomplished last year and how far he’s come, it’s very possible to expect that he’ll be right in the thick of the competition.

Matinpalo’s Stats From 2024-25

Statistically, Matinpalo’s regular season wasn’t all that impressive. He only put up 44.3% expected goals at five on five but improved drastically in the playoffs to 55.6%. That could be an outlier and a product of a good stretch in a small sample size but on the other hand, could be an indication of an improvement over the season which hopefully continues into 2025-26. 

That was evident in the eye test as well, as Matinpalo went from a guy trying to make simple plays for the sake of minimizing costly errors to a guy who was more willing to take some risks and play a more active role in generating offence.

From a counting stats perspective, Matinpalo’s numbers weren’t too flashy either. He only had four points, didn’t throw the body around all that much, and wasn’t a big shot blocker. He also had a negative penalty differential and ranked near the bottom in all of these categories among defenseman on the team. 

These numbers improved somewhat in the spring, but again, they could be the result of a small sample size. It’s possible that as Matinpalo becomes more acclimated to the NHL game, these facets will become second nature to him but for the time being, he hasn’t shown much willingness to get involved in them. That will have to change if he intends on being a third-pairing fixture.

The Outlook Moving Forward

Matinpalo came into the season as someone that was not on a lot of people’s radar, but through hard work and a little luck, emerged as the trusted option on the third pairing. Him being right-handed could bode well for him in terms of an opportunity to play higher in the lineup. 

Ideally, he will be able to build upon his performance last season and use that advice from the organization as a motivating force to improve his game and become more versatile.

Just like Artem Zub a couple years ago, it appears that the Senators have found another gem through signing an undrafted free agent out of Europe. Now the question remains: can Matinpalo improve his ceiling even more? Or will his stock fall just as fast as his rise? It’s up to nobody but him to answer that question.