25 fantasy busts for the 2023 MLB season

After a career year with the Dodgers, Anderson was rewarded in free agency with a three-year, $39 million deal across town in Anaheim. Elite control over the last two years shows a pitching deserving, but Anderson also had immense batted ball luck with a .256 BABIP and a home run rate that was cut in half compared to 2021. It's a risky proposition to expect an ERA below 4.00 for Anderson this season.

The Royals have stated Barlow remains the closer in spite of Aroldis Chapman's addition, but there is reason for concern. Aside from the added competition, Barlow displayed signs of decline last season with velocity that was down nearly two miles per hour and significant decline in strikeouts. His hold on the closer job is looser with the experienced Chapman waiting, and he hasn't built up any stock with a new manager in KC.

Cease was a league winner last season, posting a 2.20 ERA over 184 innings. Back-to-back seasons with over 225 strikeouts shows clear value, but Cease's continued control issues should keep expectations in check. His 3.8 BB/9 was mediocre, and the ERA metrics (3.10 FIP, 3.48 SIERA) show a great deal of luck in last year's actual ERA. Consider an alternative ace for the same price.

A savior for the backend of the White Sox starting rotation last season, Cueto posted an ERA below 4.00 for the first time since 2018. He did show elite control (1.9 BB/9), but Cueto's 5.8 K/9 was one of the worst in MLB. A large park in Miami is a nice advantage, but Cueto's lack of velocity and inability to miss bats at age 37 gives him more downside than upside.

There wouldn't be much hype for a hitter coming off a .222-15-62 season, but Donaldson is a former MVP on the New York Yankees. The regular rules are different, yet Donaldson is showing clear signs of decline with slowed bat speed and exit velocity along with a career-worst 27% strikeout rate. The team's bevy of infield prospects could be breathing down Donaldson's neck early in the year.

The Twins took an $11 million flier on Gallo this offseason, hoping the former 40 home run hitter would make a triumphant comeback. There's no sign of a rebound based on the numbers, with exit velocity that was been well down over the last three years and a 42% strikeout rate after he was traded to the Dodgers last season. Hitters with Gallo's profile don't usually age gracefully, and there isn't much hope Gallo can bounce back.

Gorman had plenty of hype when he was promoted by the Cardinals last season, but he was upstaged by fellow prospect Brendan Donovan. The power potential remains for Gorman, but he's an all-or-nothing hitter with a poor 33% strikeout rate in his debut. With almost no margin for error in St. Louis, Gorman could find himself back in Triple-A to begin the year.

Durability remains a concern for Gray, who last threw 150 innings in 2019, and there are also other signs of decline. His velocity has declined in three consecutive seasons, and with it his strikeout rate also fell to 24% last season. Despite getting out of hitter-friendly parks like New York and Cincinnati, it appears that Gray has peaked.

The mediocrity that was Grichuk last season is overshadowed by strong rotisserie numbers, hitting .259-19-73 for the Rockies. However, he was a negative WAR player for the first time in his career, sporting a sub-.300 on-base percentage despite the help of Coors Field, and he struggled against right-handed pitching. The Rox have several interesting outfielders emerging, including Sean Bouchard, Nolan Jones, and top prospect Zac Veen, which stand as a major threat to Grichuk's playing time.

Fantasy baseball drafting is a game of probabilities. We should ask ourselves what the chances are of Judge launching 60-plus home runs again? Even more starkly, what are Judge's chances of  playing 150-plus games for the second straight year after he missed significant time from 2018-2020 and is now entering his age 31 season? He's started draft season as a top five pick, but the downside at that cost makes Judge a big risk.

The Phils added closer experience to their pen by giving Kimbrel $10 million this offseason. The team has already said that they'll be using a closer committee, but that's not the only reason to be cautious. Kimbrel showed steep decline with the Dodgers last season, as his velocity fell and his K/9 decreased by over four strikeouts from 2021. It's also worth remembering that Kimbrel had an ERA above 5.00 in consecutives years in 2019 and 2020. The stars certainly aren't aligned for a rebound season.

Lopez was a breakout closer in Baltimore last season, but he had a rough go after getting traded to Minnesota. His improvement came in conjunction with a big velocity and groundball jump, yet both his velocity and command declined with the Twins. At the very least, fantasy managers should take a wait-and-see approach to see how the radar gun looks in Spring Training, and top reliever Jhoan Duran could take over primary closer duties, in any case.

McClanahan is undoubtedly an elite starting pitcher when he's right, but his shoulder issues late last season should give us pause. Even after returning from shoulder soreness, McClanahan struggled in September, and it's also worth noting his .251 BABIP for the season is unsustainable. Like Dylan Cease, McClanahan is too risky for the top tier price.

The road to recovery from an arm injury was long for McCullers, but he managed to make eight strong regular season starts and pitch in the playoffs. Aside from the long arm injury history, McCullers also looked out of sorts last season with major declines in his velocity, groundball, and strikeout rates. There's too much risk here for a top 200 draft position.

Each season brings minor league veterans with breakout campaigns. The challenge is judging whether they are repeatable. Meneses went crazy when he was called up following the trade of Josh Bell, hitting .324-13-34 in 56 games. He should maintain playing time for the rebuilding Nats, but there's nothing from his minor league numbers to suggest he can keep up that pace, hitting only .286 at Triple-A prior to his call-up and never hitting more than 23 home runs over a full season prior to 2022. Meneses can be useful, but the price probably won't be right.

Atlanta is extremely excited about the addition of Murphy, and moved a boat load of player capital to get him including William Contreras. He's a fine all-around player, but Murphy also has a significant injury history that includes major wrist and knee issues. He never played 120 games in MLB before last season, and will also be sharing catching duties with Travis d'Arnaud in his new home. The supporting case in Atlanta is clearly better, but paying for last year's numbers isn't advised.

Nimmo earned a massive $162 million contract from the Mets following a career year. Promoted in 2016, Nimmo reached 100 games played for only the second time in his career, and even in that case the real-world stats for exceeded standard 5x5 roto stats (.274-16-64-102-3). Nimmo is a fine option as the leadoff man in a loaded Mets lineup, but you're buying high at this point.

The hype couldn't be much greater for Pena entering 2023 and for good reason. The Houston shortstop was the ALCS and World Series MVP after hitting 22 home runs during the regular season. We should still put his season in context, though, as Pen had a mediocre .715 OPS during the regular season. Just as worrisome is an injury history that includes only 37 games played in his 2021 minor league season due to a major wrist injury, plus a thumb injury last year. There are much safer shortstop options in Pena's draft range like Carlos Correa and Amed Rosario.

Peralta has a world of upside, as shown by his breakout 2021 season when he fanned 195 batters in 144.1 innings and posted a 2.81 ERA. However, Peralta threw only 78 innings last season due to shoulder problems, and it's not the first time he's had such an injury. Peralta's strikeout rate also declined sharply, and the team added significant starting depth this offseason with Wade Miley and Bryse Wilson. Could the Brewers already be bracing to shift the oft-injured Peralta to the pen?

Based on the analytics, Quantrill's success over the last two seasons doesn't make much sense. He's produced a sub-.280 BABIP in consecutive years, and last season's 6.2 K/9 was one of the worst in the league among starting pitchers. Some pitchers just know how to provoke softer contact, but the elimination of the infield shift and mediocre ERA metrics (4.12 FIP, 4.49 SIERA) point to major regression.

It was great to see Quintana not only get his career back on track but earn a big contract this offseason from the Mets. Still, there were clearly some doubters in the fact that Quintana could only get two years. The biggest outlier was his home runs allowed, with a HR/9 and  HR/FB that were about half of his career norm. If the regression shows in home runs allowed this season, Quintana is likely to have an ERA closer to 4.00.

Rodon has been a clear ace over the last two seasons, and was paid accordingly by the Yankees on a six-year deal. There's not much questioning the legitimacy of his production, with a K/9 near 12.0 and a huge increase in velocity over the last two seasons. What should make us nervous is Rodon's injury history, including shoulder issues as recently as 2021, and the move from a very pitcher-friendly park in San Francisco to a hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. His price as a top 15 starting pitcher is tough to swallow.

Severino looked all the way back last season -- when he was healthy. Health is a huge disclaimer for Severino, as he made a combined seven appearances from 2019-2021 and still made only 19 starts during the regular season last year. The best predictor of future injury is past injury, and Severino price near the top 100 players is far too steep given the risk.

Urias has emerged as the Dodgers ace over the last two seasons, making at least 31 starts with an ERA below 3.00 in both campaigns. Still, there are numerous red flags from last year's numbers, with fastball velocity that was down a full mile per hour, declining strikeout rate, and an absurdly lucky .229 BABIP. The Dodgers elite defense usually makes pitchers better, but not to this degree. The lefty is a huge risk as a top 60 player.

Age comes for all of us, and there are signs it has come for Wong. At age 31, he showed sharp decline in his speed and defense with the Brewers, and his 18% strikeout rate was the worst of his career. It's no wonder Milwaukee moved on in the offseason, and Wong will now play in a less favorable park and possibly see his stolen bases drop if his declining sprint speed is any indication.