Blue Jays: Examining Jeff Hoffman’s historically unlucky season

It’s not always as simple as “contact bad, strikeouts good” with relievers. Tyler Rogers’ 14.7% strikeout rate and .250 BABIP is a bit of a unicorn when it comes to high-leverage relief pitchers, but he’s a unique player with an unorthodox delivery.

We are only two full months into the season, but at this rate, Hoffman is on pace to obliterate the single-season relief pitcher record for BABIP. Former Blue Jay Shawn Camp holds that honour from his 2007 campaign with the Tampa Bay Rays, when his BABIP was .434 over 500 appearances. In fact, only one pitcher in MLB history finished the season with 20+ innings pitched and a BABIP higher than Hoffman’s (Martin Malone, 1872).

But Hoffman does not fit the profile of a high-BABIP reliever. In his career, it’s never been higher than .414 as a starter with the Colorado Rockies, and as a reliever, never higher than .278 during his 2024 season with the Philadelphia Phillies.

There is always a cavern between expected stats and actual stats, but it might surprise some to learn Hoffman has the sixth-highest difference between ERA and expected ERA in baseball as well. His actual ERA of 6.16 is more than double his expected ERA of 3.15.

This is all very odd because the issues that plagued Hoffman last year were walks and home runs. Now that he’s got his walk rate under control, and he’s cut his home run rate by nearly half compared to last year, he’s giving up soft contact all over the ballpark.

Given his public perception, you’d never know Hoffman is 99th percentile this year in whiff percentage, strikeout rate, and chase percentage.

Whatever Hoffman and the Blue Jays coaching staff worked on over the offseason, it has been successful for stretches this season. His strikeout numbers have bounced back, he’s not as home run prone as he was in 2025, and base on balls have been reigned in.

Hoffman has given up some detrimental hit by pitches, but aside from that, it’s hard to fault what he’s doing on the mound.

Somehow, his slider and four-seam fastball have been his best and worst pitches in his arsenal. Both pitches have induced a ton of swing and miss, especially outside the zone. But as Hoffman has increased his slider usage to 35.6% compared to 29.8% last year, that’s left his best pitch exposed to weak contact.

I’m never one to throw out a traditional statistic entirely, but this is a case where ERA does not tell the whole story. In fact, even other metrics can’t explain what’s going on with Hoffman here. Opponents have peppered him with soft contact through the first two months of the campaign, which should even out over the course of a full season.

It’s just that Hoffman’s meltdowns have come at the least opportune times, like when he’s entrusted in a non-save situation, where he’s set up to succeed against a less-threatening portion of an opposing lineup. But when the former Blue Jays closer gets torched, it’s a scorched earth situation.

If history tells us anything, it’s not that Hoffman will be designed for assignment, or traded. It would be foolish to sell low on a reliever who still has value and can contribute to the bullpen.

The difficulty for Schneider and the coaching staff will be plotting the likeliest scenarios where Hoffman meltdowns could occur, and steering away from potential disaster in the future. It’s easier said than done, but until those balls in play find gloves again, Hoffman may need to be deployed in a different manner moving forward.