Blue Jays Nation’s Top 20 Canadian Baseball Prospects for 2025 – #4: Matt Wilkinson

Wilkinson has been on an upward trajectory for the last few years, culminating in his 2024 breakout. He pitched at Central Arizona Junior College for two years, producing eye-popping strikeout numbers and thoroughly dominating his competition. In his last year, he struck out 136 batters in 84 innings (14.57 K/9), maintaining a sparkling 1.07 ERA and 0.73 WHIP and earning NCJAA D1 Pitcher of the Year honours. He was prepared to transfer to Arizona State for the 2024 season, but instead agreed to a well below slot $110k signing bonus to become a pro.

Nicknamed ‘Tugboat’ by a former family friend based on his leisurely pace while running the bases growing up, the 6-foot-1 left-hander emerged into somewhat of a folk hero this past season. He started the year at single-A Lynchburg, posting almost identical numbers to his last year in college. Through eight starts, he sported a 1.12 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 15.8 K/9, while walking just 2.0 per nine innings. His most dominant performance saw him punch out 15 of the 19 batters he faced against the Myrtle Beach Pelicans, taking a no-hitter to the sixth inning before being lifted for a reliever.

The quality numbers earned him a quick call-up to high-A Lake County, where he spent the majority of the season.

The elite numbers continued in Lake County, posting a 2.30 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9 across 16 starts. The cumulative numbers were unheard of for somebody pitching in their first full season. He finished the season with the highest strikeout percentage (37.6) of any pitcher throughout the entire minor leagues. His 1.90 ERA was also the second-lowest of any pitcher who tallied at least 100 innings.

End-of-season accolades

Wilkinson has been honoured in several ways since the 2024 campaign ended. Just Baseball named the 22-year-old to their All-Minor League team of the year, and he also took home the Wayne Norton Award, given annually to the Canadian Minor League pitcher of the year by the Canadian Baseball Network. Keith Law of The Athletic also named Wilkinson his top minor league pitcher of the year. His season also earned him an appearance on MLB Network’s Intentional Talk, where he chatted with Kevin Millar, Ryan Dempster, and Siera Santos.

After somehow being left off of MLB Pipeline’s midseason update of their top 30 Guardians prospects, the big lefty will likely be included in the top ten once the pre-season list comes out. It would also be no surprise to see him listed among the top left-handed pitching prospects in all of baseball. Whether it was his unique body type or his dominating numbers, Wilkinson gained a lot of new fans last year, many of whom will be watching him closely in 2025.

Wilkinson’s repertoire and ceiling

When you think of pitchers that rack up strikeouts, you typically don’t think of ones that boast a repertoire like Wilkinson’s. The Ladner, BC native throws his fastball in the upper 80s/low 90s, generating swings and misses based on its movement as well as the deception in his low-slot delivery. He mixes in a plus changeup and slider, all of which he locates extremely well.

Wilkinson’s numbers would have likely made more sense if he threw his fastball in the triple digits, but he has generated whiffs wherever he’s pitched. That dates back to the Little League World Series, where he struck out 16 in a game pitching for Canada against Mexico in 2015. Until it’s proven that he can’t strike out guys with his stuff, it might be best to just assume that he can continue punching out batters at an elite rate.

His 2024 season showed that he has the chance to become a top of the rotation type of starter, with the more realistic outcome being him settling in as a mid-rotation starter in the big leagues. This is assuming that he looks a lot more human in the upper minors, which is not necessarily a given, based on how dominating he has shown to be.

Where will he play in 2025?

After breezing through single-A and high-A in 2024, the 22-year-old is set to start the 2025 campaign at double-A Akron. He won’t catch anyone by surprise next season, as more eyes will be on him to see how he handles more advanced hitters in the upper minors. If he continues to mow down hitters, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him make it up to triple-A at some point this summer, setting himself up to contribute in Cleveland in 2026.

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5. Mitch Bratt

6. Adam Macko

7. Myles Naylor

8. Jonah Tong

9. Dylan O’Rae

10. Dante Nori

11. Erik Sabrowski

12. Damiano Palmegiani

13. Eric Cerantola

14. Dasan Brown

15. Émilien Pitre

16. Adam Maier

17. Liam Hicks

18. David McCabe

19. Calvin Ziegler

20. Jeremy Pilon