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Bobby Witt Jr. Deserves Far More MVP Consideration This Season

Originally posted on Just Baseball | By Caleb Moody | Last updated Sep 2, 2025 9:09 AM ET

Bobby Witt Jr. has been one of baseball’s most promising names even before he stepped foot on a big league diamond. Drafted second overall in 2019, he had long been one of MLB’s most notable prospects, ranking as the best overall prospect in the game according to some outlets at the time he was promoted back in 2022.

Kansas City Royals fans have long been familiar with the dominance of their franchise cornerstone shortstop. But last season, the entire baseball world got to see just how dominant a force Witt can be.

Witt had one of the more impressive seasons a player has had, finishing as the runner-up in AL MVP voting in 2024, only missing out on winning the award due to another historically great season from Aaron Judge.

In 161 games last year, he slashed .332/.389/.588 with 32 HR, 109 RBI, 31 SB, an impressive 15.0% strikeout clip and world-class defense, all culminating in an outstanding 169 wRC+ and 10.5 fWAR.

This year, however, whether it be Aaron Judge’s sustained success or the introduction of a unanimously elite Cal Raleigh, Witt has seemingly flown under the radar to a degree.

However, even though he may not be having the same degree of sensational season in 2025, that’s not to say he’s suddenly not an elite big league entity anymore.

Witt Jr.’s “Down Year” is Not Really a “Down Year” At All

As mentioned already, Witt is having a “down” year at the plate, as a 131 wRC+ is notably lower than a 169 wRC+.

But read that sentence back again. A 131 wRC+ is lower than a 169 wRC+. This means Bobby Witt Jr. may not be a historically great hitter this season is still an above-average offensive force, hitting at a rate that’s comfortably an All-Star caliber hitter.

Witt sits amongst the Top 25 hitters in all of baseball in terms of wRC+. He’s also a Top 20 hitter in OPS (T-16th alongside Bryce Harper and Corey Seager at .860), SLG (T-17th alongside Cody Bellinger at .505).

Then, from an underlying metrics perspective, these numbers are far from a fluke – if that word can even be associated with Witt anymore.

He’s still hitting the ball at a plenty hard, with his 49.1% hard-hit rate ranking in the league’s 83rd percentile. He pairs that with a 79th percentile barrel rate (12.7%) and an astonishing 96th percentile AVG exit velocity of 93.4%.

Then in terms of his expected metrics, his xBA, xSLG and xwOBA all sit in the 92nd percentile and above, ranking in the 99th, 92nd and 92nd percentiles respectively.

While all of these numbers are great, what really stands out with Witt is the way he has come on strong this season post-All-Star break.

Half	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	K%	BB%	wRC+
1st	.294	.345	.504	.849	19.0%	7.1%	126
2nd	.311	.380	.507	.886	18.1%	9.0%	141

Bobby Witt Jr. 1st-half vs. 2nd-half splits in 2025, as per FanGraphs

Then, when you look deeper, the quality of contact has looked much more promising since the play resumed after the Midsummer Classic.

According to FanGraphs, Witt’s second-half hard-hit rate is 43.7%, nearly five percent higher than his 38.8% first-half clip.

His harder contact means he’s no longer spraying the ball to the opposite field as much, which isn’t always a bad thing, but it does imply he’s hitting it on the screws far more. His pull rate has remained at an identical 34.5%, his center rate is at 41.2% in the second-half as opposed to his 35.5% mark in the first-half, all while his 24.4% opposite rate is much lower now than his opening 30.0%.

Then, we move to the other aspects of the game that make Witt a sterling five-tool force and is fueling his MVP push.

Witt has developed into a world-class defender, after quite literally being one of the worst defenders in all of baseball in his debut 2022 season, where he ranked in the first percentile of qualified defenders with a -11 OAA.

So far this season, Witt is working in his best defensive season yet. After finishing in the 98th percentile of the league in range in 2023 with 13 OAA, and then 99th percentile in 2024 with 16 OAA, he leads all of baseball (alongside St. Louis’ Masyn Winn) in OAA with 21, placing him in the 100th percentile of defenders while occupying a premium position.

Then there’s that speed, that blistering, blistering speed.

Very few players truly hold a candle to what Witt can do on the basepaths.

The prime reason as to why Witt holds the third-highest amount of steals this season, 34 to be exact, is the fact that he ranks in the 100th percentile in MLB in sprint speed at 30.2 ft/sec.

His baserunning prowess has made him one for the record books, as Witt became just the fourth player in history to steal 30 bags while hitting 20 or more homers in each of his first four seasons.

Wittnessing something special. pic.twitter.com/Oa5ivthXjI
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) August 31, 2025

To round the Witt Jr. case off, even in a down year, he still sits third in all of baseball in fWAR this season, only trailing the aforementioned Cal Raliegh and Aaron Judge.

So Why Isn’t Witt Mentioned as Much in the MVP Conversation?

We’ve gone through why Witt is deserving of being in the MVP conversation, but the question still remains: why isn’t he a more prominent name for this year’s award?

Well for starters, while his 2025 season has still been outstanding, it’s still a step back from what he produced last season, which makes it underwhelming to a certain degree.

However, what’s really suppressed his case so far has been his competition in Raleigh and Judge.

The story speaks for itself when it comes to the Mariners’ catcher, as he’s in the midst of a season that the league has never seen as the premium catching position.

He’s slashing .241/.352/.581, leads all of baseball with 50 homers, sits third in RBI at 107 and third as well in wRC+, all while being a great defender behind the plate and having double-digit steal abilities himself (sitting at 14 at the moment). This has culminated in second-best fWAR total in MLB at 7.3 fWAR.

Then there’s Judge, this year’s fWAR leader. Through the first-half of the season, he seemed to be as strong a hitter as ever, slashing .355/.462/.733 with a 216 wRC+.

Since then though – which could work in Witt’s favor – Judge has not looked quite the same since his injury, as his second-half numbers look far from his electrifying first-half.

Since the All-Star break, Judge is slashing just .204/.376/.437 with a 122 wRC+. This brings his season line to .321/.441/.666 with a 194 wRC+ and 7.7 fWAR. Still MVP worthy, but much worse than his first-half metrics as he continues to trend in the wrong direction.

Raleigh may have his first career MVP locked up, but even if he doesn’t, the race is not just between him and Judge. Witt has looked like his five-tool self and is crafting an MVP-caliber season, regardless of the lack of attention he may be getting in comparison to these two juggernauts.

It’s time everyone takes notice of Bobby Witt Jr. again, especially if he continues to build on his improved second-half form.

This article first appeared on Just Baseball and was syndicated with permission.

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