Chicago Cubs' 2023 offseason reviewed

The Cubs made a pair of significant signings but still avoided the market’s flashiest free agents.

Major League Signings

• Dansby Swanson, SS: seven years, $177M
• Jameson Taillon, SP: four years, $68M
• Drew Smyly, SP: two years, $19M.  Can opt out of one year, $11M with 100 innings pitched in 2023
• Cody Bellinger, CF: one year, $17.5M.  Includes $25M mutual option for 2024 with a $5M buyout
• Trey Mancini, DH/1B/LF: two years, $14M.  Can opt out of one year, $7M with 350 plate appearances in 2023
• Tucker Barnhart, C: two years, $6.5M.  Can opt out of one year, $3.25M after 2023
• Michael Fulmer, RP: one year, $4M
• Brad Boxberger, RP: one year, $2.8M.  Includes $5M mutual option with an $800K buyout
• Edwin Rios, 3B: one year, $1M.  Can be controlled through 2025 through arbitration
• Eric Hosmer, 1B: one year, $720K
• Total spend: $310.52M

Options Exercised

• None

Trades and Claims

• Acquired IF/OF Miles Mastrobuoni from Rays for RP Alfredo Zarraga
• Claimed IF Rylan Bannon off waivers from Braves (later claimed by Astros)
• Claimed P Anthony Kay off waivers from Blue Jays (lated outrighted)
• Claimed RP Julian Merryweather off waivers from Blue Jays

Notable Minor League Signings

• Brailyn Marquez, Eric Stout, Ben DeLuzio, Roenis Elias, Nick Neidert, Ryan Borucki, Brad Wieck, Dom Nunez, Vinny Nittoli, Mike Tauchman, Jordan Holloway, Luis Torrens, Tyler Duffey, Mark Leiter Jr.

Extensions

• None

Notable Losses

• Willson Contreras, Rafael Ortega, Alfonso Rivas, P.J. Higgins, Franmil Reyes, Jason Heyward, Wade Miley, Michael Hermosillo

The Cubs kicked off their offseason with one notable change to the coaching staff, promoting Dustin Kelly to hitting coach. It’s been a high-turnover position for the Cubs over the years. Otherwise, manager David Ross’s coaching staff largely remained the same.

The Cubs telegraphed their intention to let Willson Contreras leave but in November made the easy choice to tender the one-year qualifying offer in order to lock down draft pick compensation. Contreras, of course, declined. Though an agreement with Contreras wasn’t in the plans, it soon became clear the Cubs would be active in free agency.

From the outset, the Cubs were known to have interest in the “big four” free-agent shortstops: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Though Nico Hoerner did a fine job at shortstop in 2022, he was willing to move to second base, and the Cubs saw it as an opportunity to improve their up-the-middle defense.

As you know, the Cubs signed Swanson to the second-largest contract in franchise history. That choice will reverberate over the next seven years, so it’s worth examining how it unfolded.

Turner was the first of the four off the board, reaching an 11-year, $300M agreement with the Phillies on Dec. 5, the first day of the winter meetings. That total exceeded MLBTR’s $268M projection by about 12%, which doesn’t seem too bad, but also consider that before Turner signed with the Phillies, the Padres reportedly offered $342M, which topped our projection by about 28%.

Having left a reported $42M on the table, it would appear that the suggestion of Turner’s strong East Coast preference was accurate. I assume there was some number the Cubs could have come up with to convince Turner to put down roots in the Midwest, but to the extent that any of these contracts are reasonable, that number would have been less so. Turner was seemingly never really an option for the Cubs, but his signing established that big four shortstop prices would exceed preseason expectations. It also established that the Padres badly wanted a top free-agent position player, having offered $342M to Turner and reportedly around $415M to Aaron Judge.

Agent Scott Boras later revealed that the Cubs were of one at least three teams that were “really after” Bogaerts. Unfortunately for the Cubs, Twins and Blue Jays, the Padres wanted Bogaerts enough to reach 11 years and $280M on Dec. 8. MLBTR was at $189M for Bogaerts in October, so his total beat our projection by a whopping 48% and $91M. I don’t know what Bogaerts’ second-best offer was. It’s possible that if bidding stopped in the $200M range, the Cubs would’ve signed him.

The Cubs were presumably in on Correa to some degree, but at that point in the offseason he certainly seemed headed toward a contract well beyond the Cubs’ comfort zone. MLBTR had predicted $288M for Correa, but five days after Bogaerts reached an agreement, Correa had a 13-year, $350M deal with the Giants in place – pending a physical.  That would’ve been 21% beyond our projection.

As of Dec. 17, the day the Cubs reached an agreement with Swanson, everyone still thought the Correa-Giants deal was happening. That same day, Mets owner Steve Cohen remarked, “We got there late” on Correa. Swanson seemed reasonable by comparison, with his contract exceeding MLBTR’s projection by about 15% and his total just above half of the initial Correa agreement. While Swanson was the consensus “worst” of the four shortstops, that’s less a knock on him and more to highlight how good the other three have been in their careers.

Even to reach $177M for Swanson, the Cubs had to go out of their comfort zone. The contract runs through Swanson’s age-35 season, the type and length of deal they’ve been avoiding in recent years. Given a high strikeout rate and lack of walks, Swanson’s power carries his offense and should lead to a wRC+ in the 110 range. He’s very well-regarded defensively, winning a Gold Glove and leading shortstops by a wide margin in 2022 in Outs Above Average. The Cubs expect Swanson to be a clubhouse leader and a high-floor, strong defensive shortstop who will remain at the position for most or all of his contract.

It’s worth noting that since Swanson declined a qualifying offer from the Braves, the Cubs will forfeit their second-highest pick in the July amateur draft and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. This would have been true for Bogaerts or Turner as well. The Cubs lost the No. 49 pick in the draft for signing Swanson but also gained the No. 68 pick for the loss of Contreras. Fans can welcome Contreras back to Wrigley in Cardinal red at a homestand in early May.

Three days after the Cubs reached agreement with Swanson, Correa’s press conference with the Giants was delayed due to an issue with his physical. The issue was later said to be Correa’s 2014 fibula fracture. The following day, Cohen and the Mets swooped in to make a $315M deal, lopping off $35M from the Giants price. The Mets, however, had the same concerns as the Giants, and by Jan. 5 other teams were again getting involved.

It was at this point that, in theory, the Cubs could have jumped in and done what Cohen initially planned to do: install Correa as the long-term third baseman. But for a team that reportedly “loved” Correa as recently as November, the Cubs didn’t make him an offer his first time through free agency, after the lockout, and the Ricketts family not being nearly as impulsive or free-spending as Cohen, there’s no indication the Cubs tried to jump in after Correa’s physicals scuttled two separate $300M deals. Plus, once the price tumbled all the way down to six years and $200M, the Twins had clear advantages: They were the incumbent, and they’d have Correa continue playing shortstop.

So yes, the Cubs technically could have signed any of the big four shortstops, but given how things developed and knowing what we know now, it’s difficult to see how it could have been anyone but Swanson with the current ownership.

Most of the Cubs’ key signings took place in December, so it was a very busy month for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins. Throughout the offseason, the Cubs were known to be seeking two starting pitchers, one of whom might be Drew Smyly, who had good results for them over 106 1/3 innings in 2022. Smyly was indeed the secondary rotation signing, at a price matching expectations.

Though some early interest was professed for Kodai Senga in November, it seems Jameson Taillon was always the Cubs’ top free-agent starting pitcher target. Taillon explained later to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, “The Cubs made it clear from day one I was a top priority. If you can nerd-out and talk pitching with me, that really works for me.” 

It seems the Cubs’ pitching infrastructure talking points really did help, as the Phillies offered Taillon $72M, but he took $68M from Chicago.

While MLBTR did expect a four-year deal for Taillon, the contracts he and Taijuan Walker received moved the mid-tier market forward with their $17M-$18M average annual values. Taillon, 31, is a solid mid-rotation arm, though I don’t think we can count on the Cubs getting him to miss more bats and raise his ceiling. The team still lacks an ace, but convincing Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom to join the Cubs would’ve required an uncharacteristic overpay by the Ricketts family. The Rangers, another team that has been making improvements but still has less than a 2% chance at reaching the playoffs, did just that to lure deGrom.

The Cubs didn’t throw fans any curveballs in their choices to fill holes in center field and at catcher. The market for center field was thin, and the club moved quickly to sign Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal. The fit works for several reasons: His defense creates a decent floor for the Cubs, but the one-year term keeps the spot open for top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong in 2024. For his part, if the 27-year-old Bellinger can bring his wRC+ back into the 110 range, a good multiyear deal should be waiting for him in free agency after the season.

Reports suggested the Cubs had interest in catchers such as Christian Vazquez, Omar Narvaez and Sean Murphy. Once Vazquez and Narvaez went off the board, the Cubs opted for a defense-first addition with the more affordable Tucker Barnhart. Elsewhere the Cubs also worked around the edges, bringing in Trey Mancini with the goal of finding some pop. Mancini will spend time in the outfield corners, at first base and at DH as needed. Given an opt-out after 2023, Mancini is seemingly hoping to rebuild value and re-enter the free-agent market.

Eric Hosmer doesn’t provide power, but the Cubs brought him in anyway. The Padres are paying all but $720K of Hosmer’s $13M salary this year, so it won’t be painful for the Cubs to pull the plug if Hosmer isn’t producing. It’s quite possible Matt Mervis hits his way into the lineup at Hosmer’s expense sometime in the first half. The club similarly made a modest addition at third base with the Edwin Rios pickup. Rios, at least, is on the right side of 30 and has shown big power in his limited big league exposure. Rios missed most of 2021 with shoulder surgery and much of 2022 with a hamstring tear, hence his affordable contract.

For much-needed bullpen help, Hoyer again attempted to identify bargain buys. However, he noted in January, “I do think the buy-low reliever market has been a lot higher than the past. It’s made that job difficult.”  

So far, Hoyer has matched up with a pair of righties: Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger. There’s been talk of adding a lefty, and Zack Britton and Mike Minor remain on the market with eight days left until Opening Day.

The bulk of the Cubs offseason comes down to a pair of long-term deals from the second tier of their respective positions in Swanson and Taillon. Those two should help, and it’s possible Bellinger and/or Mancini have resurgent seasons. On the other hand, the Cubs lost a very good catcher in Contreras. Overall, the Cubs look a little bit better on paper, though they remain lacking in star power.

For a club that has committed over $500M in contracts over the last two offseasons, it still feels like the Cubs are being cautious. Owner Tom Ricketts expressed a willingness to exceed the competitive balance tax “in the near future,” but perhaps not by a lot. The CBT is set at $233M this year, with the Cubs currently projected in the $219M range. The CBT rises to $237M in 2024, $241M in ’25 and $244M in ’26.

Assuming Marcus Stroman and Mancini opt out after the season, the Cubs’ projected CBT payroll for 2024 will be south of $100M, leaving plenty of spending room for next offseason. While the Cubs have several interesting prospects, their farm system is not teeming with near-MLB-ready future stars, and it’s not clear exactly how Hoyer and company will pull the team out of its current rut.